Sic Semper Tyrannis

a strategy that doesn't require blowing Iran to war & shreds

Accept that revolution requires the support of the Shia faithful. Mr Big Beard will die ! The Battle of the Beards then shapes Iran's future .If you're not Moslem,get over it,& find a Beard to support.I'm convinced that clerics can be found to denouce the IRI ( pardon me,"Hizbo Party") as un-Islamic, corrupt thugs.

Isn't the specter of a million dead enough reason to give Reform another chance ?

Also thanks to

Mammad, Dr. Ala, Simorgh, my European buddy Rea and everyone else who has so far contributed to this blog, pro and con.  

A special thanks to my runner buddy Roozbeh Gilani

Thanks my friend for your kind words.  We shall go running together one of these days.  Perhaps when its colder here I will visit Southern CA and we'll go for a 10 miler!

I know and I do not

I know what is going on inside Iran because every member of my own immediate family, brother, sisters, etc., and their families live in Iran, the same with my wife's, and I am in touch with signficant strata of the society, from university students and professors, to my old classmates in university, to even my old high school friends, most of the last group are not in fact doing well. But, if this is any indication, not a single one of them wants war, while every single one of them opposes the VF regime.

So, do not tell me that I do not know. But, I still do not want war and bloodshed. As VPK said, change must come from within. This has been my position for a long time. If the peaceful revolution of 1979 brought us to this point, imagine what a bloody confrontation and civil war will do. Arming people means civil war with hundreds of thousands dead and the country disintegrated. Advocate what you want, but at least think about the consequences. 

Mammad

Simorgh

You are missing the point my friend! It is far worse than revenge attacks Libya is going to fall apart. If that is the price I am not going to pay it. Besides West has been training and advising the rebels and has its hands deep in this.

Anyway I don't want to debate this any more. I told you my position and the reasons. You are welcome to yours. I already said I do not trust the West with respect to Iran. Specially Obama with his sorry record.

VPK

Last I remember it was the Libyans themselves who were carrying out the revenge attacks and not the US military.

Simorgh

You got it right we are DAMNED both ways! Because there are no good options. I tell you many nights I have dreams of Iran and how it was. But there is nothing I can do to restore it. There are no good options I can see just like COP.

The only realistic way to me is change from inside. I do not share your trust of the West. As I said to me asking their help is like asking Jack the Ripper to save a woman from rape. Yes he will help her by sticking a kinfe in her. 

It is tough to be in this position but we have no one but ourselves. It may take a LONG time. But it has to come from inside or it won't work. I had hope that Obama might be different. But the Libya fiasco proved beyond any doubt that West is not a friend. Not of Iranians or of Arabs. You may differ with me and good for you. But I WILL NOT SUPPORT MILITARY ACTION NOW! Not in this form and not in these conditions. I don't know if I ever will but I do not right now.

Damned if you do. Damned if you don't

 If you support military action:

If you support military action you are labeled as callous and reckless for wishing innocent people to put in harms way while you are in a "nice safe home" in Iran. Innocent people will die while you are safely away in a different countryfrom the bombs  and watching it all on TV.

 If you are opposed to military action:

On the other hand if you do nothing, you are a selfish and complacent person whose turned your back on your country whose population are living in abject misery while you are living in a free country with your bellies full and taking for granted the liberties you enjoy.

Its not an easy choice and I've heard both arguments. 10 years ago I would holler bloody murder at the thought of anyone supporting military action. The thought of a foreign power bombarding my country regardless of civilian casualties was anathema to me. Then I travelled to Iran and experienced first hand what it is not being able to live as you chose; experience social restrictions on gende; inflation at 17% where people are paying US prices with third world salaries; lack of jobs and opportunities;  feeling threatened that you could be stopped at any moment for flouting the Islamic dress code or holding your girl friend's house in public. I saw people being arrested and members of my own family be reprimanded by an ugly gorilla and some Fati Comando bitch in a Batman outfit.

Imagine it was your own 58 year old aunt be told to cover a neck by a 22 year old bache gherti you will fight or want to leave the country. Imagine you were humiliated in public by some S*** HEAD basiji who tells a father accompanying his daughter that he needs to take lessons in parenting skills because his daughter's head scarf does not cover her full head.

If you ever experienced what these Iranians ever experienced you would not put up with this crap for a single solitary moment which is why so many young people risk their lives and that of their family by escaping from the country using people smugglers. Do you know how many Iranians have died on ships which have capcized in the mediterranean or off the coast of Australia.

If YOU only knew you wouldn't be quick to condemn me for supporting military action. Shomaha vaghan deletun khoshe!

You take for granted everything from listening to the music you like, wearing what you like to coming on Iranian.com without having to download a filtershekan or fear bering arrested for writing a blog.

I at least have the courage to say what all of you know deep down but can never bring yourselves to admit it even under the cover of anonymity. If you were to divorce yourself emotionally from this issue you know that violence and bloodshed is the price for a free Iran. But then again you are all living in the safe haven of sunny California and you will NEVER have to go through the living hell which a majority of Iranians have to put up with day in and day out.

SUPPORT MILITARY ACTION NOW! 

A conversation with my imaginary friend

Imaginary friend ("IF"): "Dear AO, does this blog advocate military action against anyone, including Iran?" 

AO: "No."

IF: "Does its say that superpowers have the right to attack anyone they want?" 

AO: "No."

IF: "Does it say that Iran will be, or should be, bombed tomorrow, or anytime soon?"

AO: "Nope."

IF: "So what does it say?"

AO: "My dear imaginary frriend, the blog actually mocks intervensionism and aggressive internationalism.  It puts Iranians who want to stick their noses in the business of other nations on the spot and confronts them with an equivalency, and the possibility of comparable action by those who are much more powerful that they can ever imagine.  They now realize that their ideology is not really that different from the warmongers that they pretend to despise."

IF: "So why all the anger and the fake naneh man ghareebam?"

AO: "Because the blog has served its purpose.  A mirror has been held up to their faces and they don't like what they see.  Hence, the knee jerk 'you advocate bombing of Iran' nonsense."

IF: "will Iran be attacked tomorrow, or anytime soon?"

AO: "Don't think so.  The U.S. is not that stupid." 

Re: Blood shed

If it were just scenes like on a movie I would turn it off. The reality is the problem. As Mammad said it is easy to talk about it here in my nice safe home. But I would not prescribe it for Iran.

Who am I to sit nice and safe and demand Iranians back home pay this price. By the way according to NPR this morning Libya is not doing well. There are revenge killings all over the place. And the nation has already disintegrated into city-states. 

A hallmark of royalists

such as Simorgh - aside from giving themselves "super-patriotic" names - is that they cannot see more than a few feet ahead of themselves. They support "arming of Iranian people," call people to "get used to seeing scenes of bloodshed," and without knowing a word about what is going on express an "expert" opinion, such as "Libyan people are not doing too badly."

In a country like Iran in which ethnic minorities make up 40 percent of the population, some of the groups have had fantasies about separation, and there have been too many credible reports about the connection of such groups with foreign powers, arming people will be nothing short of catastrophic that will lead to Iran's disintegration.

And, yes, let's get used to bloodshed. But, hey, since we are not living there, we will not see it, and only prescribe it for those who live in Iran. So, get used to it, but good luck.

As for Libyans not doing too badly, there are already reports about people being arrested and tortured. Of course, anything other than this would be a surprise. 

Mammad

VPK

The Libyans do not seem to.be doing too badly. If you are hoping for a smooth transition to secular democracy given the nature of the IR then you have another think coming. We have to get used to the scenes of bloodshed in the struggle to liberate Iran but the price would be worth it. I think given thr barbaric nature of Gadaffi's regime the rebels backed by NATO is actually doing a good job under thr circumstances. Just seeing the pictures of euphoria on the streets of Tripoli when Gadaffi and his goons were overthrown made me feel excited about what could happen in Iran if the regime woukd topple. Make no mistake, however, with or without US intervention there will be violence on an unpecedented scale but all battles come with a price. The alternative is sit around while Iran goes through a slow and painful death.

As a self-proclaimed COTW

....... and I speak for myself only, no !

There are other means of providing support for any opposition. Sanctions, external pressure, financial support to NGOs, diaspora lobbying, etc.

Briefly, removing of any dictator has to come from within. Particularly, in a multi-ethnic country like Iran.

Dear Simorgh

Just as in Libya the Iranian opposition movement must be armed and
given all material support to overthrow this despicable regime.

Libya is a total disaster in the process of disintegrating. I don't want that for Iran. If the only thing USA is able to do it to "free" us like Libya then no thanks. Really the mess in Libya makes the pre "freedom" look better by the day. 

AO

Good blog. Sadlly, the citizens of Iran wil never be able to remove the despicable IR regime without intervention by the USA or another country which has the same military capavilities. Just as in Libya the Iranian opposition movement must be armed and given all material support to overthrow this despicable regime.
Forget Reza Pahlavi, foget MEK, forget the communist party, forget NIAC just rid yourself.of this regime.

There is no

question that if America were to "help" they will want a price. But I am not sure that any price will be enough for them. They may just prefer IRI period. After all they were getting pretty much the "price" with the Shah!

Disclaimer: I am not supporting US intervention. Just asking some questions from those who are.

There are so many questions:

• Is America really interested in "helping" Iran at any price.
• Would a "reasonable" price say 50% of the oil and gas be enough?
• Do they want to break Iran up.
• Do they want to impose a worse than IRI reads MEK regime?
• Does America have the ability given domestic opposition. 
• Does anyone in their right mind trust Neocon run USA?

My answer is a BIG NO

I agree with HHH . 

" 1. No superpower would spend $2 trillion and 50,000 lives for nothing, they would want our slavery, our resources and our dependence for the next 50 years to come.

2. They will destroy our country, our bridges, our dams, our factories, our airports, our military and they will massacre over 1 million Iranians. "

Why my last comment is flagged as abusive?!

       Why my last comment is flagged as abusive?! I think your blog is simple minded and naive. Is that something to be flagged?! And you are criticizing IRI for censorship? funny stuff! This intolerance for criticism is telling!

Where do you think it is? If you can not tolerate a polite and gentle criticism like that you shouldn't be blogging here.

I say again: I support Military Action..

By my people, the people of Iran , to overthrow the islamist regime and free themselves from the yoke of Islamist fascism as the first step in building a free, democratic and just society for all people of Iran. 

And once again, I'd like to thank AO for this blog and the other fine blog on Kafka,

Now why the above comment was removed, Only heaven knows!!

"Personal business must yield to collective interest."

Well I say it again:

      My post was removed because I called this blog simple minded! Now is that a violation of IC rules?!

      It takes a gullible to think it is a black and white issue as who is a dictator and ask the world powers to remove them!

       How come the benevolent superpowers don't do a damn thing about Yemeni dictator for months?! Because the dictators next door, that is Saudis are supporting him. Why no one even bothers to criticize Saudi gov. with such a reactionary system of laws. They cut hands and stop women from voting. May be because they guarantee flow of cheap oil! So should we ask superpowers to bomb the kingdom and free that Mecca from their tyranny?!

       No wonder HHH is so pissed off! He has a point! 

To the Morons

Your answer is HELL NO!

Why? Because:

1. No superpower would spend $2 trillion and 50,000 lives for nothing, they would want our slavery, our resources and our dependence for the next 50 years to come.

2. They will destroy our country, our bridges, our dams, our factories, our airports, our military and they will massacre over 1 million Iranians.

Is that worth removing mollahs? Only a complete moron or a freaking traitor would say yes.

Mammad.....

I was trying to point out that the "culprit" behind the long list you referred to is the only country that has the experience and the potential in bringing these socio-political changes. These changes have been liberating, or oppressive, depending on when and where they were implemented (this is where the views will differ). Nevertheless, US has been the only country with such capability, although much less so today than in decades past. The US is far more likely to change for the better, at anytime, than many other countries, especially IRI. Lets keep that in mind.

When it comes to IRI, I am for the total annihilation of their ideology in Iran. This can only be accomplished internally. Dismantling of the current IRI system is the next stop, but I set my sights on the destination of this train.

Kaveh V

I must say I do not understand your comment. What was illogical about what I said? It is not as if the culprit behind the long list that I presented has suddenly become an angel and, therefore, it is illogical of me to put up the list!

My point is that those who suggest that we should support "regime change" either know or do not know that the country that can possibly do it - I believe in Iran's case it cannot - is the same country associated with the list I gave which is completely factual. Therefore, it is at least clear to me that this power is not interested in "liberating people" or "bringing democracy" anywhere.

So, if the regime changers do know it and still suggest it, then I must say that they commit treason by suggesting it. If they do not know it, then they should learn about it before stating to type.

Mammad

Mammad

"…And, of course, the same country should take the lead to "liberate" people? "

Lets keep the logic in sight, the answer is YES. Only a country that has managed all of the above has the potential to take the lead to liberate people.

Having said this, I am a firm believer in the "critical mass" concept.

AO Jaan, This is going to rile up the foes

and possibly some friends! Looking at this from a dynamical system's perspectives, there is no way to dislodge this IRR criminal system except using force!

Military invasion in the form of putting soldiers on the ground is not a good idea and unlike us US learns from it mistakes (i.e., Iraq, etc!)

Going after high-valued targets and assets such as Rahabar, Majles, IRGCs, Basiji's, etc. using drones is necessary but not sufficient. 

The sufficiency comes from the Iranian people themselves in finishing up the job!

But, at the end of the day as they say no pain no gain!

AO, did you read the comments?!?

AO, did you read the comments?!?  Several people answered your question, it seems to me that you do not like the answer(s)!!

Yes I read it

I know AO and I are not on speaking term. But I did read the blog. I don't know who are the "COTW". Do these have a military or a judicial system? Who runs their organizations. Most COTW live in India and China. Between the two we get just about 40 % of the population. 

Does anyone really expect them going and "helping" other nations? I prefer realistic ideas than slogans and totally unworkable idealism. The idea was that UN would be the agency to resolve problem. Thanks to selfish power grabs and "veto" powers it is powerless. Without a powerful; just and representative organization there are no COTW. The "best' you get it things like NATO which are clearly tools of powers that control them. Hence the response by Mammad is very much valid.

Still busy with work - But did anyone actually read this blog?!!

It's not about advocacy for an attack on Iran.  So, no knee jerk "iran will be bombed tomorrow" naneh man ghareebam please.  This is a very specific question directed to a very specific group.  Here's the question again:

if you're a globalist is terms of advocacy for justice and equality all over the world, and advocate things such as total boycotts, etc. of various nations, shouldn't you also be supporting other actions, such as military action to remove unjust dictatorships from power?

Please discuss amongst your good selves. 

Which country has supported most dictators?

The most consistent supporters of blood thirsty dictators around the world have been the U.S. and its allies. Just look at what happened in Latin America, Africa, and East Asia since WW II.

Which country overthrew democtatic governments in Iran, Guatemala, Honduras, Chile, Argentina, .....?

Which country created the Contra thugs?

Which country supported the military junta in El Salvador that even murdered Archbishop Oscar Romero and three American nuns?

Which country supported the appartheid regime, Mubutui Sese Seko, Hosni Mubarak, Bin Ali, the Algerian military regime after the 1991 elections?

Which country did not say a word when Pakistan created Taliban and overthrew the government there in 1996? What about Vietnam?

Which country bombed Cambodia secretly in 1970 and brought war to it? Supported Khmer Rouge just to teach Vietnam a lesson?

Which country supported Jonas Savimbi, the blood sucker of Angola? Which country overthrew Patrice Lumumba?

Which country supported the military coups - three times - in Turkey?

Which country invaded Iraq illegally and criminally?

Which country invaded Panama and Granada?

Which country supports Israel in its occupation of Palestinian lands?

The answer in all the cases is the same.

And, of course, the same country should take the lead to "liberate" people?

And, of course, those commentators here who advocate oil, gas, and banking system sanctions, together with naval blockade, trust the same country to set up "democracy" in Iran. My ...

Mammad

APfSM (no, S&M) ;). Great post.

See?

This is why I have said before that your posts are the only posts from the monarchy supporters on IC worth reading. They come from well-meaning and  with a distinctive idea of reason and education and which is why I always wish you well.