When Omar Ibn Khattab unleashed his band of mostly idol worshipping, war loot seeking desert nomads on the majestic Persia Empire, he really didn’t do so with malice. It was all business. He saw an opportunity and seized it. Not in his wildest dreams he would have foreseen a future, 1400 years later, in which a bunch of people who called themselves children of that land would embark upon a mission to break up that once mighty Empire into pieces---this time with malice.
The sad reality that we have to face is that Iran, in its current geographical form, will cease to exist. This is a bitter eventuality that will come with the inevitable demise of the Islamic Republic.
I don’t think that any non-mentally ill individual can argue that the high echelon of the IR, the ones in charge of decision making, really care about the territorial integrity of Iran. They care about their self interests, their regime and their ideology. Their track record has left no doubt about this fact. I mean, who can forget Ayatooleh Hendizadeh’s own words:
We do not worship Iran. We worship Allah. For patriotism is another name for paganism. I say let this land [Iran] burn. I say let this land go up in smoke, provided Islam emerges triumphant in the rest of the world. //frontpagemag.com/2010/02/11/exalting-khomei
It is also no secret that Khamenei calls himself the guardian of all Muslims of the world and the IR considers itself the only legitimate Muslim government on this planet. So, looking at the ideological angle of this issue alone, the conclusion is that Iran can be sacrificed to safeguard Islam.
Form the self interest angle, the mullahs have shown, and said time and time again that they will not go without a fight. Just recently one of their “laat” Basiji commanders openly declared war, and essentially threatened civil war on IR’s opponents. And civil war is what they want. This whole threat of “asymmetric warfare” in nothing but a thinly veiled warning that they will let their thugs loose in mountains and deserts and go to war with the people if we are deposed. I mean, you don’t really think that the flying boats and the mini-helicopter are designed for foreign threats, do you? Who’s going to take those things seriously? What use would they have other than attacking unarmed civilians?
The next factor is the concept of foreign fighters. If they imported Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon to kill Iranians on the streets during the post election violence, what do you think they will do if they seriously see themselves at the verge of collapse? They will flood the country with these thugs, who are trained to do nothing but wage guerrilla warfare. They will create another Lebanon in Iran. Just look at what they did to their own country a couple of decades ago, and in 2006, when they caused half of South Lebanon to be destroyed so that they could kill 50 Israelis. And of course, at that time, we will also have jihadists enter Iran into Pakistan, Khouzestan and Kurdistan and fight alongside separatists.
Lastly, in the 21st century, we have foreign interests who are working hard to cause the break up of Iran. Their interests are both economic and strategic. And of course, the IR, being the consonant fool, is playing right into their hands. With every bellicose chant by the IR, the arsenal of foreign interests grows.
Another factor is the way in which the IR has intertwinedthe IRGC with the regular Iranian military. Iran’smilitary command and control is in the hands of Basij and Sepah. In the scenario where the IR is fighting forits existence, the IRGC will take total control of the military and devote itsuse to protecting the regime, thereby allowing separatist forces to operatewith impunity. This will also preventthe army from performing its traditional role of maintaining Iran’sterritorial integrity. This is exactlywhat happened to the well trained and well equipped Afghan army post Sovietoccupation.
In sum, the IR has no loyalty to Iran. If they see themselves at the verge of collapse, they will flood the country with foreign fighters and along with their own zealous followers, create a civil war in Iran. This will, in turn, provide separatists, who will be helped by foreign interests, the perfect opportunity for secession.
The IR will not go without a fight, and the whole idea of “reform” is a pie in the sky pipe dream. The IR will never be reformed. Look at it now, 31 years after its establishment, and it’s as belligerent as it has ever been. It’s under more sanctions that it has been and it’s closets to being attacked than any other time in its short, yet miserable history.
Because of all of the above, I really don’t see a bright future for our country’s territorial integrity. Iran will become Iranestan, and the empire that Cyrus and Ardeshir built will be all but a distant memory, broken up into many mini-states. This will be IR’s legacy.
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