Iran as continual regional menace
Politico / Stephen Blank
20-Feb-2012 (2 comments)

As the crisis generated by Iran’s nuclear programs intensifies, we are learning more about Iran’s regional foreign policy. It demonstrates that Tehran menaces all its neighbors and rivals — not just Israel.


Action causes Reaction

by FG on

An imaginary sign on Khamenei's desk reads, "Bad Deeds Never Backfire."  

You can rig elections and institute a police state.   You can arm and train Islamist militias to target Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan. You can do your sneaky best to destabilize every neighnoring government.  You can blow up foreign civilians in countries thousands of miles away just to get an Israeli or two.  Assumption: Since no one will do more than protest.  You can laugh even as you deny. 

Living in glass houses, Assad and Khamenei elected to throw stones.  Assad encouaged jihadis to develop bombing and assassination skills Iraq in  and now "enjoys" those skills in Damascus and Aleppo.   Having killed Israeli civilians at an Argentine synagoue and elsewhere, Khamenei now screams "unfair" as his nuclear scientists die and a missile base explosion.   Having plotted against so many countries, he now finds himself isolated and under sanctions.  What did he expect?

If--not when--this regime unravels, Khamenei begins to slaughter Iranians by the thousands and they plead for help, will Khamenei's former victims abroad honor requests for arms, military training, IED's, Quds-like Special Force assistance and Libya-style "no fly zones?"

 Come, come!  Let's hear no hypocrisy about "interference in our domestic affairs."  



Is the Assembly of Experts Going After Khamenei? MAYBE

by FG on

From Enduring America: 

Straight into the news with interesting chatter about a meeting which may or may not have taken place --- Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani, the head of the Assembly of Experts, has denied news that he had a long discussion with the Supreme Leader.

Reports had claimed that Mahdavi Kani had raised issues such as the criticism of the system and the Leader by some members of the Assembly, President Ahmadinejad's behaviour and "the criticism of him and his administration”, and the case of former Foreign Minister Ebrahim Yazdi, almost 80 years old and serving an eight-year sentence: "he is very old and ill and he might die in prison; if that happens, it will not be good for the Islamic Republic and its reputation".

Mahdavi Kani also reportedly suggested "the positive role that [former President] Hashemi Rafsanjani can play for getting more people to participate" in the Parliamentary election; "it might be a good idea to get Hashemi more involved and bring him into the scene”.

According to the report, Ayatollah Khamenei  replied, "This ‘Sir’ (Rafsanjani) sticks to his own views only, and Ahmadinejad does not act wisely; and in such situation it is not good and appropriate that the members of the Assembly start criticising or raise criticisms." 

As for Ebrahim Yazdi, the Supreme Leader said, "He is guilty and so he has to face his sentence."


Many signs suggest that principalists and possibly a faction within the IRCG are turning on Khaemeni, as they watch the country go down the tube, along with their own futures.  Again, I keep seeing seeing the faces of the German generals  (in the film Downfall)--rich in military experience--as Hitler explains how everything will soon be sunny again after his hopelessly outnumbered forces launch "successful" counterattacks agains Russia forces.  


1. The "inquistion" raids Montezeri's office and takes files.

2. Khamenei criticizes constitutional provisions for Assembly of Experts supervision as invalid.

To me that suggests conservatives discontented with Khoumeini's failures and intransigence as a leader are demanding action.   Note the remarks of Kani above.  He leads the Assembly.  Why did he leak reports of a conversation that reflect badly on Khamenei?  And who is Khamenei's feedback man in the Assembly?

3. Rezeaei, who has previously expressed strong support for Khamenei, seems to be wavering lately.  His latest remarks are certain to offend.  

First, Rezeaei compares Khamenei's xenophonbic-based foreign policies unfavorable to those of Mohammed Khatami and Rafsanjani.   Then he suggests sanctions could last at least five more years (implied: unless something changes).   That is surely an unbearable prospect to endangered principalists as well as Iran's population and merchant class.   It's inconceivable the regime could last that long if his prediction is right.  

Meanwhile, Khamenei's attitude, demonstrated in his interview with Khamenei, suggests policy won't change unless the Master of Failures is removed.  For principalists, it's a matter of survival now. 


Not only liberal clerics but also many moderate conservatives in the clergy seem upset with Khamenei's high-handedness as seen in Kani's complaints.   The Special Court of the Clergy has become a tool for enforcing political loyalty to Khamenei rather than preventing real abuses of religion.

The IRCG, like many principalists, is threatened by Khamenei's stupid policies and intransigeant stubborness.  The generals know that if the regime goes, either by war or revolution, many will go too.  Previously they backed Khamenei on Ahmadinejad, who they've come to hate.  They blame Khamenei for Mahmoud.  Looking at the same evidence I see, I also don't see how IRCG generals cannot conclude that a death squad led by Hossein Taeb and sanctioned by Khamenei is engaged in a secret and bloody purge of their ranks.  Each general will have to worry about his own safety so long as Taeb and Khamenei retain power. 


A Student Takes On The Iranian Regime ... Then Flees