Iran's censors wage web war against Ahmadinejad as elections loom
The Guardian / Saeed Kamali Dehghan
16-Feb-2012 (3 comments)
Iranian censors have blocked access to a number of news websites sympathetic to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, adding further fuel to a high-level power struggle at the heart of the Islamic regime....Dozens of Ahmadinejad's allies have been arrested in recent months and media adviser Ali Akbar Javanfekr, one of his top aides, this week lost an appeal against a six-month jail term.  But Iran's parliamentary elections, scheduled for 2 March, are seen as an opportunity for Ahmadinejad to fight back....The current parliament, which is dominated by Khamenei's people, has been critical of Ahmadinejad and has repeatedly threatened him with impeachment.

 

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FG

Sweet irony!

by FG on Thu Feb 16, 2012 12:17 PM PST

Delicious!   Ahmadinejad and his faction are getting a taste of their own medicine. He and the clerics joined in election rigging, the crackdown afterward and enforcing censorship on the Greens.  

Don't feel sorry for the guy.  Even as his "deviant" faction from the cleric-IRCG alliance,, Mahmoud attacks the Greens almost daily as he rails--like Khamenei--against the sedition faction.  The Bad Guys know that people disgusted with both make up the majority of Iran's population these days.  

Now it's Ahmadinejad's faction getting screwed, as their internet sites are blocked and their candidates are vetted out, except for those who manage to conceal their identify.



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Cost-of-Progress

Nothing will change

by Cost-of-Progress on Thu Feb 16, 2012 01:19 PM PST

As long as theocracy is at power in Iran, NOTHING will change. Elections are meaningless and designed to give an illusion of a "democracy".

As long as Iran is in the grips of religous ignorance, NOTHING will change. 

As long as Iranian people allow these cockroaches to rule over them, the losers will remain to be the people of Iran. NOTHING WILL CHANGE.


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FG

This could get really interesting

by FG on Thu Feb 16, 2012 01:27 PM PST

There are several scenarios but none look great for the regime.

SCENARIO 1: Ahmadinejad's faction wins in spite of obstacles.  

Feuding continues and gets worse.  The problem is both guys would join forces against the Iranian people if protests restart.

SCENARIO 2: Ahmadinejad's faction wins more seats but no majority.

Consequence: Similar to #1.

SCENARIO #3: Ahmadinejad's faction loses badly due to vetting, censorship and vote rigging.  Mahoud's fate is critical in this one.

If he perceives the election as rigged, I doubt Mahmoud or his supporters will sit down and shut up, no more than the Greens did.    Many will be arrested for"propaganda against the state," their newspapers and internet sites are shut down and their bloggers and journalists arrested.  If Ahmadinejad himself goes untouched, the regime may survive for a time while other unfavorable trends continue to converge.

However, if Ahmadinejad himself is impeached, ousted and arrested, anything goes.  You won't see rival pro-dictatorship factions joining up to stomp a discontented majority.  If demonstrations break out all discontented Iranians will join.

The regime will have far fewer "repression allies" than in 2009.  Mahmoud's "people punchers" will have switched sides.  The prime base of support left will consist of the usual hard-line mullahs (meaning not all mullahs), and welll paid and loyal security force officers (not to be confused with their troops).   Die-hard, see-no-evil religious suppporters have dwindled in numbers thanks to revulsion over regime excesses.  Economic hardships, IRCG monopolies and the threat of bankrupcy are alienating merchants rapidly.

Watch for defections by some principalists who have stood by the regime and endorsed all crackdowns up to now when they see their own privileges at stake.   Many now complain aloud about Khamenei's multi-failures as a stubborn, reactionary leader who obstinately persists in policies that isolate the regime abroad and at home with bitter consquences.


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