Ayatollah for A day
Foreign Policy / karim Sajadpour
13-Nov-2011 (8 comments)

The International Atomic Energy Agency's new report on Iran's nuclear program asserts that Tehran "has carried out ... activities that are relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device" and that the agency sees "strong indicators of possible weapon development." In other words, the IAEA has finally reached the same conclusions that Israel first reached in 1995. So should we really be worried about an Israeli strike now?

Historically, there has been an inverse correlation between Israeli saber rattling and military action, but senior Obama administration officials consistently confirm in private meetings that they take "very seriously" the prospect of an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear sites.

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Anahid Hojjati

Esfand jan, good point

by Anahid Hojjati on

you wrote:"

Unless US and Europe are going the nuclear route they will not have a clear indication of where war will lead them.  Karim quoted who said wars have a way of making their own way.  Anything is possible and just like they say; no option is off the table, for either side!  Words don't mean anything in this case and the only diference is that nothing has started yet and they can "talk" and "threat" as much as they want. "

 I agree.


Bavafa

A great and well written analysis...

by Bavafa on

War is the ugliest of all options, specially after what we have seen in Iraq and Afghanistan.

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad


Esfand Aashena

US and Europe came as hard as they could in Iraq & Afghanistan

by Esfand Aashena on

Anahid jaan there have been terrorist attacks in US and Europe and many that have been fumbled and foiled since they went to war and they have been fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan for nearly 10 years.  They have came down hard as hard as they could and now they're leaving those countries.

Unless US and Europe are going the nuclear route they will not have a clear indication of where war will lead them.  Karim quoted who said wars have a way of making their own way.  Anything is possible and just like they say; no option is off the table, for either side!  Words don't mean anything in this case and the only diference is that nothing has started yet and they can "talk" and "threat" as much as they want.

Yesterday during Obama's press conference in Hawaii he said dealing with Iran is not easy and anyone who says it is, is either politicizing or doesn't know what they're talking about.

Everything is sacred


Anahid Hojjati

Esfand jaan

by Anahid Hojjati on

upon reading the aticle again, I believe Karim is implicitly saying that response of the west wil be very strong in case of Iran hitting European tagets, since Karim talks about middle east being in flames. That is why he talks about war becoming ugly.

However, I am not sure IRI will believe that they can hit European targets and Europe will not come down hard on them. karim made this aasumption in his war game but i am not sure IRI will make the same assumption. You do have a good point that why Karim did not just stay with Iran attcking Israel. 


Esfand Aashena

Yes I don't know why Karim would go all that way.

by Esfand Aashena on

Anahid jaan I think Karim is saying what'd be Europe's reaction if Iran were to launch these proxy terrorist attacks.  He is saying no one knows for sure.  For example, remember during Iraq war I, Saddam was firing Scud missiles into Israel and they were saying Israel has decided to "restrain" and not fire back.

Well others were also saying what can Israel do that US and its allies are not already doing?!  How much more air force sortie or bombs can Israel drop that others are not already dropping on a 24/7 basis?!

I'd ask Karim why did you even go that far?  Why didn't you just say well Iran fires several missiles into Israel and at least 5 or 6 of them hit population centers in Israel, what'd happen then?  Forget attacking US and Europe, just stick with Israel.  I don't think Iran's missiles are same as Scuds that Iraq used.

I think an Israeli attack has as much credibility of actually hitting all the targets and making it to and back from Iran and succeeding as Iran's missiles has in hitting targets in Israel, if not less.  Easier to fire missiles than to launch jets from Israel to Iran. 

Everything is sacred


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

What does Iran mean to people?

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

Europe will not go easy on "Islamist thugs" is one thing. Iran is another. You folks are falling for the big lie. Iran is not the same as "Islamic Hizbollahi Thugs". Why do people repeat the statements that equate these two?

Did anyone say Afghanistan is the same as AQ or Lebanon Hizbolllah. Why should people say Iran instead of IRI. I refuse to accept that. Now that we are on the subject I am not so sure EU opposes IRI.

Go ask Amirparviz and he will give you evidence of EU actively supporting IRI. Go easy my foot they want IRI. The only Western nation which may want IRI is America. And that is a BIG if.


Anahid Hojjati

Great article. Europe will not go easy on Iran

by Anahid Hojjati on

Most interesting part of article is this:"

We didn't limit our reaction to just the Middle East. Via proxy, we hit European civilian and military outposts in Afghanistan and Iraq, confident that if past is precedent, Europe would take the high road and not retaliate. We also activated terrorist cells in Europe -- bombing public transportation and killing several civilians -- in the belief that European citizens and governments would likely come down hard on Israel for destabilizing the region. "

In my opinion, any government that thinks that they can hit European or US targets and be faced with Western countries just take the highroad, is mistaken.


yolanda

...........

by yolanda on

Great analysis! Karim is a genius!