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Iran on Monday surprised much of the world by agreeing to a nuclear fuel swap with Turkey and Brazil. The deal is similar to one that the US has been pressing Tehran to accept for months – so Washington will be happy with this development, right?

That’s unlikely. From the US point of view, one big problem is that Iran continues to amass more and more low-enriched uranium, and it has begun boosting some of this stockpile to an enrichment level it hasn’t approached before. Thus, an Iran nuclear fuel swap today might constrain the country's nuclear program much less than it would have last October.

“There is less to Iran’s agreement than meets the eye,” writes Jeffrey Lewis, director of the Nuclear Strategy & Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation, on his blog ArmsControlWonk.com.

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Under Monday’s deal, Iran would ship 1,200 kilograms of its low-enriched uranium to Turkey for safekeeping. In return, it would receive ready-made fuel rods, enriched to a level of 20 percent and capable of powering the Tehran Research Reactor, which Iran says is a crucial source of medical isotopes.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said the deal means Iran has opted for a constructive approach.

“There is no ground left for more sanctions or pressure,” he told reporters in Iran, according to Turkey’s private NTV television.

But the deal has been greeted skeptically by Brit... >>>