Iran: Will the Guard Switch Sides?
alsharq alawsat


More significantly, perhaps, Mousavi appears to
have put his plans for an ill-defined "green organization" on the
backburner. He is beginning to understand that the anti-regime movement
is too wide and too diverse to fit into a centrally controlled

The movement's diversity and plurality make it hard
for the regime to contain and ultimately defeat. Over the past eight
months, thousands of people have been arrested and hundreds killed in
the streets. And, yet, the "decapitation" promised by General Jaafari
appears to have produced no results."


Rapidly losing its popular base, the Khomeinist
regime is becoming increasingly dependent on its coercive forces,
especially General Aziz Jaafari's IRGC.

At some point, the
general and his colleagues might decide that they have nothing to gain
by risking their lives and fortunes defending a regime whose time may
have passed. These days, IRGC commanders are appearing on TV almost
every night presenting themselves as "guardians of the system". Jaafari
himself says he is attracted by the "Turkish model", in which the army
acts as a bulwark of the republic.

However, the general may not
have all the time in the world to ponder his next move. The op... >>>

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