Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Iranian forces yesterday entered Iraqi territory at dawn and occupied well number 4 in the East Maysan oil field, Border Guard General Zafer Nazmi said.
The Iranian forces positioned tanks around the well, which is in the al-Fakah region, 450 kilometers (280 miles) south of Baghdad. The two neighbors have disputed the border of southeast Iraq for decades.
Iraq’s National Security Council will hold a meeting to discuss the situation, state-run television al-Iraqiya said. Iraq’s al-Hurra television station also reported that Iranian forces crossed the border into Iraq, citing the U.S. army saying the incident was not violent.
>>>TWO POSSIBLE MOTIVES:
Some speculate that the goal is to drive up the price of oil. Iran needs at least $90 a barrel to continue to pay its Basilj and IRCG forces. Expenses have probably risen as a result of employing these forces to keep down.
Another possible motive: rally Iranian nationalism behind the regime.
A STUPID MOVE:
Khameneni and his thugs are so out of touch with reality--at home and abroad. Recall the reaction of neighboring Sunni states, the USA and Europe when Saddam invaded Kuwait. This won't be tolerated. It was an especially stupid move when so many American troops are still in Iraq, including substantial air power that Iran can't match. Surely Iraq's government, like that of Kuwait, will request assistance from all of the above. Those tanks are toast if that happens.
Iranians are well known for their nationalism but will they rally behind their government in this case if invading troops are hammered? I suspect not though government-controlled media will surely try to portray Iran and Iranians as victims in event of any mlitary counterresponse. Iranians are sick and tired of the security forces their government has used to oppress them. Many of those security forces--including the IRCG--are loaded with unhappy conscripts. A military setback could produce mutiny in the ranks. Surely that is to be welcomed by most Iranians.
If this report is true, the ruling coup may just have slit its own throat.
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Those troops are being asked to commit suicide for the regime
by FG on Fri Dec 18, 2009 09:43 AM PSTIn event of a military response, they have no chance. This is another example of the regime's ruthlessness. Having already beaten, raped and murdered so many of its own people, it is now sacrificing its own troops who were doomed when sent on this mission as Khamenei must have known. I ask again: How will rank-and-file soldiers respond to this? Will others want to be sent into a meat grinder?