Statistical Tests Suggestive of Fraud in Iran's Election
14-Jul-2009 (7 comments)

An American statistician says strong statistical evidence backs up the claims of Iranian protestors that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s victory in the June election was fraudulent.

Walter Mebane of the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor analyzed Iranian election data and found anomalies strongly suggesting that ballot boxes were stuffed with extra votes for Ahmadinejad. Mebane also identified 81 towns where further investigations are likely to find evidence of fraud.

“This suggests that the actual outcome should have been pretty close,” says Mebane, who described his analysis on a paper posted on his website June 15 and updated June 29. The official results showed Ahmadinejad getting almost twice as many votes as his closest rival.

“His data is highly, highly, highly suggestive that something odd was going on,” says political scientist Henry Brady of the University of California, Berkeley. “Someone who really knows the geopolitical makeup of Iran might be able to take this analysis further. I hope the CIA has someone doing that.”

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Kaveh & Jaleh

by Proud_To_Be_Anonymous on

Can you guys stop bad mouthing Kaveh & Jaleh until they come back from the party and be able to respond?  They are attending the Supreme Leader's Birthday Party today.  Yes, he was born on this day in 1939; joy!



by cyclicforward on

I totally agree with you about Kaveh Afrasiabi. I read his article that he noted some of  the references as being the experts in number theory and claiming these references saying the election was not rigged. I checked the sources first hand and it is exactly opposite of what Kaveh claimed. I am quite surprised that Asia Times let anyone like him to publish on their website.




Mardom Mazloom

‫جا جا جا جاله جون کوجائی؟

Mardom Mazloom

‫‫بیا بهت بگوم چرا این اینتخابات از اول تا آخر همش جرزنی بود .....


Thanks Rosie, Here is one more from Farsi Wiki

by IranFirst on

I found this one on Farsi Wikipedia . Its very comprehensive and detailed


rosie is roxy is roshan

Here is another one...

by rosie is roxy is roshan on

I saw last month.


I did not post it. Draw your own conclusions...

anonymous fish

oh, i'm quite sure

by anonymous fish on

the usual suspects will have some pathetic excuse.  :-)


How do IRI Appologists explain this?!

by IranFirst on

Where are Kaveh Afrasiabi and othyer IRI nokars, to prove this UC Berkeley wrong ? Apprantly IRI stuffed the boxes, but did not know how to do it without leaving a statistical trace, after all they are the Basij type (not so smart, even after years of cheating).