Understanding Iran: Repression 101
New York Times / DAVID E. SANGER
28-Jun-2009 (one comment)

When the rallying cry on the streets of Tehran turned from “Death to America!” to the stranger-sounding “Death to the Dictator!” there was a great temptation to conclude that the days of the mullahs were numbered. Maybe they are and maybe not; as President Obama said on Tuesday, “we don’t know yet how this thing is going to play out.” But inside Mr. Obama’s National Security Council, and around the world, versions of the same question were being asked: Will the resort to raw repression work? Or will it eventually backfire, only widening the huge political breach that the election laid bare?

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In background conversations last week, several cautioned that it was not clear what the Iranians had in mind. “The students in Tiananmen wanted real democracy, the Poles wanted regime change, but the Iranians might be looking for something in between,” one of Mr. Obama’s top advisers said. “But the more the supreme leader cracks down, the more radicalized the opposition may become.”