خاكِ پدران است كه دستِ دگران است

Oktaby,

A scientific research is unbiased. See the both side and then open the ground for constructive discussions.

IRI has it's own shares of problem and no one can deny that. but you deny the share of embargo and sanctions and wars....

While your beloved western country were pounding on IRI for democracy they were funding Taliban and Alghedeh, Saddam , Marcos, King Hossein, Fahad, Hassan, Mobarak, and the Turkish military establishments. These are just a few I can recall. 

No one wants Iran to rise. That is the point

and that is exactly the ultimate accomplishment of IRR. Iran would have been there by 10-15 years ago without these thugs and there is ample evidence to support that based on trajectories or what was happening and the massive brain power coupled with rising petro dollars and a powerful military. That's why they did not dare take Iran out militarily or could not have embargoes because of reasonable stance in global forums. They had to fool Iranians with islamic rapist khomeini to do their dirty work. The illusion of power that IRR is selling existed in real terms already. No one wanted China to rise but it did. Power is not something they hand out. It is something you take. And we were tantalizingly close until we fell for this biggest scam of all time called islamic retardation. And it has miserably failed to deliver real economic or military power even in their own pathetic context.

And on divestment, it is easier to divest from out of context, pedestrian comments. 

OKtaby

not an investment advisor but

but if you are so concerned, just divest from Rial. No big problem.
Invest in Greece, I hear they are going great hehehe!!

Spain, Portugal, France, UK and US are next online, hurry while it lasts.

Hamsade, thanks for synopsis and addition

This was a comment on AO's "what IRR has .." and it became a blog when I saw that one spammed. So it was not intended as an academic exercise as this is not place with that capacity.

I agree that it boils down to the nature of IRR. As the most successful creation of imperialism it cannot be a servant of Iran. And the economic references were to point this fact out. They have to bend over to keep power. Or they are gone. Internally they force Iranians to bend over. The reality is any country that bends over will get it. This is not exclusive to Iran. One could argue China used the very tools of imperialist greed to make it bend over. The responsibility lies with that government from whatever nation. In IRR however, it is always someone else, something else or somewhere else. It is always imperialism, revolution, war or world is against us. Notice the responses from IRR agents: 'we have a fre..revolution', 'we had a war'... and it seems none of that nonsense has any statute of limitations. even after 31 and 22 years respectively.

Now, bring the world' mot meticulous research and they will attack it the same way. Talk about rape and poverty and that's 'the cost of independence'. Brain drain, and that's Irani running away. Hi unemployment and that's because of embargo. Erosion of industrial and innovation base, and that just expat propaganda. So no sense in engaging that futility. No gas exploration, aging Oil infra, declining ....

Debunking IRRs 31 year old lies is good public service. 

OKtaby

Hamsadeh,

Again I am not denying the problems I am pointing to what I think is the cause.

Iran with or without IRI is on the rise. That's what they don't want. Do you think if a democratic gov was in place still the Arabs and the Turks and Pakistanis and Russians would want a powerful Iran?

What is the benefit for the West in a Democratic Iran anyway that they are pounding their chests for it?

Hamsadeh,

Absolutely! The most valuable part of GDP is investment which is the most fragile one.

That's my whole point, that the West always beat on the drums of war to shake that part.

IRI was on the path to be open but the West didn't let that happen. Remember the axis of evil speech? 

بی‌ناموس و کافر و خائن ملت

خداوند عالم، خاک ایران و اهل ایران را از برای چه آفریده است؟

- به هنر این که ایران را فقیرتر و ذلیل‌تر و خراب‌تر از هر نقطۀ روی زمین ساخته‌اند.

midwesty

iran's problems are the result of the actions of undemocratic, corrupt and brutal regime of iri. banging the war drums by the western nations may further decrease confidence in iran's reputation but the lion's share comes from within.  confidence is important in valuation of the stock (investment in, currency) of a country.

Q,

I hate to agree with you on the war side but wars as you said are economic blessing.

You know what bro. I guess if the west doesn't start the war Iran might start it in order to get economic relief.

One thing these guys don't realize is that "the beast is awaken and wants food". It'll get it one way or another.

Hamsadeh,

Glad you brought this up. PPP is a relative term as much as I remember from my macro courses years ago. In here means, how Iran is doing compared to the rest of the world on poverty and specifically the purchasing power of ordinary Iranians to buy basic food. It means if IRI gets isolated and as Q said the Iran's credit line being manipulated compare to the rest of the world the first thing that suffers is the PPP number, however that doesn't necessarily mean Iranians get poorer it means the value of Iran's currency has been depreciated.
This also can confirm my initial assumption that the current currency situation is by part IRI's problem and for the major part the interventions and manipulations. 

Oktaby,

My impression about your blog was different than what you are saying now. But as I recall even after the war the oppositions abroad were still blaming IRI for the economic, repeat economic problems. I am not talking about the old story of exporting revolution and what it came as a result.

oktaby

the blog was an economics stew made of exchange rate, international trade, domestic budget, ppp, iran’s oil and industrial sectors, foreign investment, oligopoly of sepah, effects of embargo with a dash of politics of the military-cleric regime.  the responses also ranged from ad-hominem attack (hey tahgord!), to inflation rate is just a number (hey *iri) which reveals the apologists’ notion of number of political prisoners executed are iran is just that, a number.

the intent of the blog is to point out the economic misery that the current regime has brought upon iranian nation.  while the conclusion may be correct, some of the premises may be suspect.  the presentation of the blog reminds me of the economic misery index (another economic stew, you’re in good company oktaby!) which is comprised of unemployment and inflation rates, political rating, and measure of confidence (both domestic and international).  all areas in which iri’s economic and political players have royally failed.  you can refer the following link for an analysis of iran’s economic misery index: //www.thefreelibrary.com/Measuring+Iran's+economic+misery-a0208555750  

as far as the exchange rate history of iran goes, one can divide it into three periods pre-revolution to 1980, 1980-2001, and 2001-present.  the first period was a stable period followed by increased uncertainty (revolution). the second period included the largest devaluation of iranian currency (from 70 rial to 1000 rial in span of 5 years) and was comprised of a convoluted multi-exchange policy (official bank rate, black market rate, export rate, import rate). in the third period the government pegged the rate to the black market value and that’s what we have now.  the transformation of exchange rate policy is meant to calm the nerves of (and attract) foreign investors.  restrictions of western countries on doing business with iran has increased the market of non-aligned countries (getting more business and getting paid higher for each business transaction) like china, Russia, japan, and korea.  this phenomenon can be observed with the growth of various ‘technological parks’ around Tehran in the past decade.  these venture business mechanisms are set up between the iri (irgc) and companies from east asia or european subsidiaries.

i've also noticed misuse of terms related to purchasing power parity (ppp) and gdp/capita when analyzing or comparing economies.  while ppp is more straight forward and can be used to better compare economies of different countries, there are problems with using gdp/capita as an economic well-being in many instances.  it’s more appropriate for economies like the u.s. where essential assumptions of neoclassical economics hold in the market (e.g. free entry and exit, laws and enforcement of property rights). in iran, many of these ‘free-market’ conditions are violated, distorting the meaning of gdp/capita.  ideally, one would like to know the household income, household size, and price index of a certain period to build the simplest economic model.  in lieu of such information, economists have resorted to using gdp/capita with all of its limitations.  gdp/capita is especially distorted in iran since the majority of products that comprise of iran’s gdp comes from the oil sector.  if 1% of the workforce work in the oil industry, and if 80% of the economy’s output comes from oil, then you can deduce how miserable the highly educated are in the rest of the economy.  for a fun and illustrative definition of ppp, you can refer to the following link to see how much food (and the type of food) a typical family consumes in a week in different countries around the world, and its cost in dollars:  //www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1626519,00.html

one can go on and on analyzing each and every one of the economic concepts that you threw in the stew; however, my stance against the brutal regime of iri is based on freedom and fairness for the Iranian people and not based on economic reasoning. 

Come back when you can tell the difference

 zaboone adam mifahmi?

Or your pay depends on pissing on this blog? 

OKtaby

Economy is irrelevant?

Well here we go. Change your title to:
What I want to talk about for Iranian economy but don't want to hear the truth.

start your own blog or go to news section.

or go to IRIB and rest of your beloved IRR sites. Stop spamming my blog with irrelevant junk. 

OKtaby

Oktaby

This helps you guys know what the problems are and what the government is doing to solve them. It's much more productive than guessing and bad mouthing policies without having enough information. These are related to your blog.

IRI, please stop spamming my blog. This is not the news tab

OKtaby

New law to help economy

گروه اقتصادي: اتاق بازرگاني و صنايع و معادن ايران به عنوان بزرگترين تشکل فعالان اقتصادي و پارلمان بخش خصوصي به تازگي پيش نويس قانون جديدي را به مسؤولان دولتي پيشنهاد کرده است.
اين قانون که عنوان «ايجاد فضاي مساعد کارآفريني و رفع موانع کسب و کار» را به يدک مي کشد، دگرگوني اساسي در مناسبات اقتصادي کشور را مدنظر دارد.

حمايت قضايي از فعالان اقتصادي داخلي و خارجي

فعاليت اقتصادي برپايه اقتصاد بازار، ممنوعيت مداخله دولت درامور اداري، مديريتي، قيمت گذاري محصول، دستمزد، دسترسي به فناوري شرکتهاي دولتي، خصوصي و تشکلهاي اقتصادي، منحل شدن سازمان تعزيرات حکومتي ظرف 6 ماه از تاريخ تصويب اين قانون و معافيت تمامي کارگاه ها و مشاغل داراي 10 نفر کارگر و کمتر از شمول قانون کار از مهم ترين موارد ذکر شده در پيش نويس قانون پيشنهادي از سوي بخش خصوصي است.
تلاشها براي بهبود فضاي کسب و کار در کشور در حالي صورت مي گيرد که بانک جهاني در تازه ترين گزارش خود از وضعيت کسب و کار 181 کشور جهان از ايران به عنوان کشوري ياد مي کند که به لحاظ سهولت فعاليتهاي اقتصادي رتبه 142 را داراست.

نارضايتي بخش خصوصي

در کنار نارضايتي بخش خصوصي از کيفيت فضاي کسب و کار در کشور اقتصاددانان هم اين فضا را نامناسب ارزيابي مي کنند.سرپرست پژوهشکده پولي بانکي مي گويد: از نظر وضعيت کسب و کار جايگاه مناسبي در دنيا نداريم، گزارش بانک جهاني هم شوکي بر اقتصاد ما وارد کرد تا به اين موضوع بيشتر فکر کنيم، البته گزارشها از فراهم کردن زمينه هاي بهبود توسط مسؤولان حکايت دارد، اما اين بهبود به تمهيداتي نيازمند است.
دکتر مسعود نيلي به سرمايه گذاري دولت در بخش زيرساختهاي اقتصادي به عنوان يکي از مهمترين تمهيدات بهبود فضاي کسب و کار اشاره مي کند.
وي اضافه مي کند: بهبود فضاي کسب و کار حلقه تکميلي اصل 44 است که چنانچه محقق نشود بازي باخت- باخت براي دولت و بخش خصوصي رقم مي خورد و اين دو بخش به نفعي نمي رسند.اين اقتصاددان خاطرنشان مي کند: در گذشته نگاه اين بود که دولت، نظم دهنده بخش خصوصي باشد، اين در حالي است که بهبود فضاي کسب و کار بازي برد- برد بين دولت و بخش خصوصي است.

عدم جنب و جوش اقتصادي

به گفته عضو هيأت رئيسه اتاق بازرگاني و صنايع معادن ايران رتبه کشور در فضاي کسب و کار بسيار بد و نشان دهنده نبود جنب و جوش در عرصه اقتصادي است.
مسعود دانشمند به خبرنگار ما مي گويد: بي گمان بايد در اين حرکت يک تا دو ساله خودمان را به زير رتبه 100 پرتاب کنيم، چون اگر بي توجهي کنيم بيش از پيش سرمايه گذار داخلي و خارجي را دفع مي کنيم.
وي ادامه مي دهد: در يک فضاي بدون جذابيت، اگر کسي سرمايه گذاري کند سودآوري ندارد، چون سرمايه گذار داخلي به دنبال سودآوري است که چنانچه محقق نشود اشتغال و توليد ملي هم از بين مي رود و اتکاي دولت به نفت بيشتر مي شود.
اين فعال بخش خصوصي به بالا بودن نرخ بيکاري به عنوان عاملي اشاره مي کند که امکان تحصيل درآمد دولت از محل توليد ملي را به حداقل رسانده است.
او خاطرنشان مي کند: اين وضعيت توليد ملي باعث شده تا حتي اگر منتقدان اتکاء به نفت هم جاي دولت مي نشستند باز هم براي هزينه هاي عمومي کارکنان به سراغ درآمدهاي نفتي مي رفتند !
دانشمند اظهار مي دارد: توليد ناخالص ملي ما در حال حاضر 350 تا 360 ميليارد دلار است که اين رقم در مقايسه با کشوري همچون ترکيه که بيش از هزار ميليارد دلار توليد ناخالص ملي دارد و جمعيت اش اندازه کشور ماست بسيار ناچيز است.
عضو هيأت رئيسه اتاق بازرگاني و صنايع و معادن ايران به 10 معيار شاخص کسب و کار در جهان اشاره مي کند و مي گويد: آغاز کسب و کار، کسب مجوز، استخدام نيروي کار، ثبت دارايي ها، کسب اعتبارات، حمايت از سرمايه گذاري، ماليات، تجارت مرزي، اجراي قراردادها، ورشکستگي شاخصهاي مهم فضاي کسب و کارند، اما در کشور ما فضاي بسته قوانين و مقررات ناظر بر بازار کار و متعاقب آن غير منعطف شدن تقاضاي بازار تمام اين معيارهاي ده گانه را تحت تأثير قرار داده است.
به باور وي مي توان با رفع موانع توليد و سرمايه گذاري از طريق ساماندهي فضاي کسب و کار، کاهش ريسک سرمايه گذاري از طريق فراهم کردن امنيت اقتصادي و سياسي وايجاد هماهنگي بين نظام آموزشي و نيازهاي بازار کار، وضعيت بازار کار و اشتغال اقتصاد را بهبود بخشيد.
دانشمند مي افزايد: مقررات بازار کار در ايران به وضوح برعملکرد بخش خصوصي که حدود 80 درصد از کل نيروي کار کشور را تحت استخدام دارد تأثيرگذار است، به نحوي که نرخ بيکاري ناشي از اختلالات موجود در قوانين و مقررات بازار کار و ساير بازارها انکارناپذير است.
اين فعال بخش خصوصي اظهار مي دارد: وضعيت نامناسب کسب وکار باعث شده است تا هر گونه تزريق نقدينگي به بازار به جاي تأثير ملموس بر سطح اشتغال و به جهت تأثير بر امور واسطه گري و غير توليدي به رشد سطح عمومي قيمتها و يا پيشي گرفتن توليد بالقوه از توليد بالفعل منجر شود.

موانع زياد است

عضو هيأت نمايندگان اتاق بازرگاني و صنايع و معادن تهران نيز به خبرنگار ما مي گويد: موانع موجود بر سر راه بهبود فضاي کسب و کار بخش خصوصي بسيار متعدد است، زيرا بسته به نوع کسب و کار و اينکه صادراتي باشد يا صنعتي و بازرگاني موانع هم متفاوت است و شدت يا ضعف مي گيرد، ولي موانع کلاني وجود دارد که بر تمام بخشها سايه افکنده است.
دکتر پدرام سلطاني خاطرنشان مي کند: در فضاي کسب و کار و براي فعال اقتصادي چهار محور مهم است: سرعت، سهولت، سلامت و صرفه؛ بدان معنا که بايد سرعت انجام امور اداري بالا باشد که متأسفانه اين محور در کشور ما و بويژه در سازمانهاي دولتي بسيار پايين است، براي اخذ مجوز فعاليت هم بايد سهولت وجود داشته باشد، نه اينکه براي يک مجوز مراجعه به سازمانهاي مختلف، اخذ امضاء هاي مختلف و طي مراحل گوناگون در مسير فعاليت اقتصادي ديده شود.
اين فعال اقتصادي با ابراز تأسف از نبود سلامت در سيستم اداري و اقتصادي کشور اذعان مي دارد: متأسفانه به لحاظ سلامت اداري- اقتصادي در وضعيت نامطلوبي هستيم و با وجود چنين آفتي هزينه انجام کارها بالاتر مي رود، سرعت کمتر مي شود و شفافيت کار و در نهايت رغبت فعال اقتصادي به کمترين حد ممکن مي رسد که اين امر تنزل اخلاق کسب و کار و رشوه دادن و رشوه گرفتن را در پي دارد.
به باور سلطاني در اقتصاد کشور هزينه انجام هر گونه فعاليت اقتصادي براي فعالان به قدري بالاست که اصولاً انجام اين فعاليتها براي آنها به صرفه نيست.
اين گونه اظهارنظرها در حالي است که به اذعان کارشناسان بانک جهاني تنها با انجام اصلاحات در 5 شاخص اخذ مجوز، حمايت از سرمايه گذاران، استخدام نيروي کار، ثبت مالکيت و انحلال فعاليت ايران قادر خواهد بود جايگاه خود را از وضعيت کنوني به نحو مطلوبي ارتقا دهد.

Midwesty, I don't totally agree

War is usually a net positive for the economy. I mean, damage to economic installations is a negative for the economy for sure, but that aside, huge spending from the public sector usually translates to huge commerce, and high employment. However, in Iran's case that couldn't be realized because of massive capital flight combined with an economic embargo which includes lending institutions and credit agencies.

The Reagan administration, for example, repeatedly pressured Moody's to lower Iran's credit rating based on non-economic grounds. And of course many foreign contracts were not honored as you know.

I feel comfortable saying war was a big factor, as was the IRI mismanagement but I think only if we combine it with sanctions and for-a-time real economic warfare. They did to Iran what Arabs did to Israel (and what US did to Cuba) regarding regional trade and market availability, which is a tremendous hindrance. But Israel had uncle Sam to bail it out, and Cuba had Uncle Nikita.

They really did try to "starve the beast" so that Saddam could force a loss and topple the regime in exchange for Khuzestan.

Oktaby

Look at this piece of midwesty's comment:   

but mostly it was foreign interventions that has caused us so much trouble.

Classic Third World lazy, conspiracy theory mentality.   Blame the bogeyman for your troubles.  As I have mentioned many times before, in 1932, Germany was a nation that was occupied by England and France.  It had just lost WWI and was an occupied and enslaved nation.  By 1944, the same Germany was the most industrialized, powerful and innovative nation on the planet, and had already invented missile and jet engine technology along with many other inventions that we use today.  And it had a fraction of the natural resources of today's Iran.  It literally took the entire world to stop it from taking over the planet.    

By contrast, look at the IRI and the products of its culture of "geda parvari", "moezeh", "too sar zani" and "rozeh khooni".  Thirty one years on and they are STILL crying about "foreign intervention".  How long does the IRI need to get Iran out of the mess that it has placed it into?  A hundred years?  Five hundred years?  Perhaps a thousand years.  This way, they will have as much time to cry about "foreign intervention" as they have had to cry about Imam Hussein's head.    

I wish JJ hadn't closed commenting on my blog.  With Fair and Jamshid there along with yourself, we were getting somewhere.   

Midwesty, what kind of a comment is this?

You are using the same fallacy and half baked logic as those you threaten to side with. If I wanted to engage an exercise in futility I would have responded to them directly. My blog was not intended to analyze the universe and the whole RCA of IRR. But it is certainly not written in vacuum. The mode you are posing your question certainly invites an argument not a discussion.

You could simply ask what is my opinion on the root cause. Or better yet express yours and ask me to counter. I'm simply speaking at a current level. Yes we had a 'devolution', and then a war. The last event ended 22 years ago and since then the world has gone through a massive economic expansion favoring natural resource nations like Iran. IRR is the cause of that destructive backward momentum for Iran. if you have decided that IRR misery is all on foreigners, then I have nothing to add that helps you. If you are interested in what I think then Track my comments. Including the recent ones on '10000000 reasons why IRR will rape Iran for another 50', or AO's what has IRR accomplished. Still on top of the most discussed.

How long is that excuse of devolution and war going to be used to justify rape, murder, suffocation, erteja' and every other misery one can bring on a people? How long you think the 'we are victims' excuse valid for? Who is responsible for IRR's policies, isolation, sanctions and mayhem and chaos? When is tripling of poverty is going to have a cause other than aforementioned? in a country sitting on world's 16% of total energy wealth at a time when energy has been at premium?

If you are inclined to side with whoever because you have bought the never ending excuses partially or wholly then I can respect that; but please don't put it on my blog or comments. Theirs is here too. 

OKtaby

IRI, you're funny, you know that?

Oktaby,

So what do you think that caused the IRI to initially print money? it was the war and then embargo, and now the sanctions.

You can't just blame everything on IRI. It is not a unified wholesome character if you want to have a subjective criticism and a constructive discussion. Otherwise I agree with Q and Sargord to reject your idea as babble to stir more trouble.

My point differs from you not on the effect but on the cause. Yes there was mismanagement but mostly it was foreign interventions that has caused us so much trouble.

"inflation is a numer": so is your IQ,

number of closed feedback loops that it took to come up with that statement, decreasing wealth of Iranians, ranking on any measurable catgory, number of Istans, even your Imams. These are all just numbers.

AO, just public service during down time.

OKtaby

Oktaby Jaan

Fantastic blog and great analysis.  Please do not get your hopes up, though for the Kool-Aid drinking IRI crowd and Prozac taking anti-American nuts to understand anything about economics.  To them, anything that is done by the IRI is a blessing from Allah almighty.

IRI: create factories? How

IRI: create factories? How about re-opening up hundreds of factories and small manufacturing business (e.g. Iron and steel)that had to close down and ruined lives and families precisely because the IRI economy is so mismanaged and not connected to the world at large?

VPK, the extreme capital is a problem globally

and I made a passing reference. Certainly, lack of regulation and adult supervision in U.S. along with plain thievery created the vortex.

Midwesty, how could I disagree given the content of my blog.

The discussion of Marx, Smith, left and right is fun but my blog on IRR is not that broad and it need not be. It certainly need not be Akaber level with suggestion that 'value of rial is not important', or 'haahaa inflation' by those claiming genius level knowledge of the subject. IRR economy is a wonder of the economic and financial universe but lets not get into supernatural. But when you talk about Sepah controlling increasing amounts of economy, religious interpretation and voodoo being the key decision factor, and economic philosophy and schools of thought do not mix. IRR has created and is fortifying Feudal system. Istanization may be a good word for it. What I have is mine, and what the country has is mine. And whoever, falls in line will get some crums.

OKtaby

Ahmadinejad consults his

Ahmadinejad consults his butcher and gojehfarngi foroush economic policies. We shouldn't be surprised that Rial is worthless...lol

IRI jan,

Alazeena jahado fina lenahdeeanahom sobolana! Isn't it? I am questionin our part of jahadoo fina then lets discuss the lenahdeyanahom sobolana!

Vildemose jan,

I agree but let's not generalize NYSE situation with the whole economy and school of thoughts. Most of jobs in this country is created by the entities that do'nt even get to see the entrance of NYSE.