Spelling Danger

Iranian navy off U.S. coast?

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Spelling Danger
by Trita Parsi
03-Oct-2011
 

The world has grown accustomed to Iranian bluster. But even by the standards of the Islamic Republic, Adm. Habibollah Sayari's call last week to deploy the Iranian navy near the U.S. coast is stunning. The Pentagon knows, of course, that Iranian war vessels won't come near America's shores any time soon. As White House spokesman Jay Carney said, "We don't take these statements seriously, given that they do not reflect at all Iran's naval capabilities." The Iranian admiral may bark, but he doesn't have much of a bite.

Still, the loss of a sense of proportion revealed by the rhetoric of Iranian leaders tells us several things about the country's disorientation in the face of citizen uprisings that are still shaking the region. It also tells us that three years into President Obama's term, the U.S. and Iran remain perilously close to confrontation.

Iran is a country that has lost its regional momentum. Tehran cleverly utilized America's many mistakes in the Middle East during the George W. Bush administration to expand its sphere of influence and fill the power vacuum left by a declining United States. The enemies Iran could not defeat were crushed by the U.S. military, and the standing it could not achieve on its own fell into Tehran's lap through the plummeting of America's regional status.

But rising on the back of American missteps could only carry Iran so far. After the brutal repression of its people following the fraudulent presidential elections of 2009, and the rise of the Arab populations elsewhere in the region against their dictators, Tehran has lost its strategic sense of direction.

Though the Islamic Republic had predicted — and indeed applauded — an Arab Spring, it was nevertheless surprised by the absence of a prominent anti-American dimension to the protests. With no appetite among the Arab protesters to direct their anger against America, Iran faced great difficulty exploiting Arab frustrations, particularly since its government had no intention of embracing for Iran the kind of changes being demanded by demonstrators in neighboring countries.

The Arab Spring has diminished Iran's ability to wield soft power in the region. Instead, the momentum has shifted to Turkey, which has not been shy about stealing pages from the Iranian playbook for appealing to the Arab street.

When the strength of a state declines, its desperation increases. Its statements grow more aggressive and fear — more than calculation — guides its actions. Much indicates that the Islamic Republic is experiencing this right now, partly because of regional developments but mainly due to the state's internal weaknesses following the 2009 elections.

Yet, though it is preposterous to think that the American mainland is under some form of military threat by Iran, Tehran's disorientation has not reduced the risk of a U.S.-Iran confrontation. Indeed, the combination of three important factors explains why the U.S. military leadership has voiced its concerns that an accidental clash in the Persian Gulf could spiral out of control.

First, America's declining influence has created a vacuum in the region that begs to be filled. The ensuing jockeying for position and the creation of a new regional pecking order have given birth to geopolitical turmoil.

Second, this turmoil comes at a time when most regional powers are suffering from unusual internal political weakness. The ability to conduct effective foreign policy has been compromised by internal divisions. Decisions about crucial strategic matters are increasingly made on the basis of domestic politics rather than geopolitical calculus.

This near-collapse of statecraft is clearly visible in Israel. The government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has chosen to limit its foreign policy maneuverability to whatever its fragile governing coalition can endure. Disproportionate foreign policy risks are accepted in order to prolong the life span of the coalition at the expense of Israel's long-term interest.

Egypt, Iraq and Syria all suffer from political instability, in different forms and for different reasons. And while Saudi Arabia has managed to buy off its protesters, it will be facing a succession crisis in the next few years that could spark a Saudi Spring.

In Iran, political cannibalism within the Iranian elite has reached new heights. While this has not necessarily given birth to a new Iranian adventurism (beyond the harsh rhetoric), it has paralyzed the state and weakened its ability to maneuver in a changing strategic environment. This is particularly the case when it comes to crucial issues such as its relations with the United States.

Third, this paralysis is all the more dangerous in an environment in which the parties aren't on talking terms. This has led to a collapse of statecraft and an increase in bluster that could prove quite dangerous. One small spark could cause a conflagration.

The U.S. military leadership is rightfully worried about this situation. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Michael G. Mullen, has repeatedly raised the lack of communication between the United States and Iran as a major concern in the last few weeks.

"We are not talking to Iran so we don't understand each other," Mullen said last month. "If something happens … it's virtually assured that we won't get it right." The lack of communication has planted seeds for miscalculation, Mullen argued. And miscalculations often lead to dangerous escalations.

Mullen's diagnosis is on target, as evidenced by the escalation in Iranian bluster. Talking to the Iranians is not guaranteed to resolve the fundamental issues that have created this dangerous atmosphere. But it might ensure that in the midst of the barking, there isn't an accidental bite.

First published in latimes.com

AUTHOR
Trita Parsi is president of the National Iranian American Council and the author of the forthcoming book, "A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama's Diplomacy with Iran."

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more from Trita Parsi
 
Masoud Kazemzadeh

Truthseeker

by Masoud Kazemzadeh on

Dear Truthseeker,

Those who do not have facts and logical arguments, instead resort to LIES, insults, and personal attacks. Ramin J has made many personal attacks and insults against me. It shows that he lacks facts and logic. Ramin J is NIAC’s Shaaban Bi-mokh.

Best,

Masoud


Faramarz

ز تعارف کم کن و بر مبلغ افزا

Faramarz


 


من مطمعنم که تریتا پارسی توی یک خانواده خوب و سر سفره پدر و مادرش بزرگ شده و احتیاج به فحاشی و لات بازی برای نوشتن و گفتن نظریاتش نداره.


Truthseeker9

.

by Truthseeker9 on

.


Masoud Kazemzadeh

Condemning the LIE by the Supporter of NIAC

by Masoud Kazemzadeh on

Condemning the LIE by, Ramin J, the Supporter of NIAC

========================================= 

Kazemzadeh the MEK agent

by Ramin J on Mon Oct 03, 2011 01:06 PM PDT

Sorry Masoud Kazemzadeh - sorry, but i don't think i can take ANYTHING you say seriously since it was revealed that you belong to the Mujahedin. Nothing personal, but I just dont link terrorist cults.

 

=======================================

 

1. I strongly CONDEMN Ramin J’s LIE.

2. I have never ever belonged to the PMOI.

3. I am a member of the Iran National Front-Organizations Aborad. I have held many top positions in the INF-O including Secretary of Foreign Affairs and Human Rights, and member of INF Central Committee.

4. I request a retraction and an apology from Ramin J for his LIE.

Masoud Kazemzadeh


Ramin J

Kazemzadeh the MEK agent

by Ramin J on

Sorry Masoud Kazemzadeh - sorry, but i don't think i can take ANYTHING you say seriously since it was revealed that you belong to the Mujahedin. Nothing personal, but I just dont link terrorist cults.


Masoud Kazemzadeh

Sources on NIAC

by Masoud Kazemzadeh on

Sen. Jon Kyl, (Republican, Arizona) on the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and NIAC:

//www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1109/Kyl_presses_for_NIAC_inquiry.html?showall

November 20, 2009

Categories: Kyl presses for NIAC inquiry

Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl, a Republican source says,  sent written questions to Attorney General Eric Holder following yesterday's meeting, going after the National Iranian American Council, a group drawing conservative ire because it advocates a soft(er) line on Iran and the subject of a Washington Times piece raising questions about its lobbying status.

Kyl's questions:

The November 13, 2009 Washington Times article, “Iran advocacy group said to skirt lobby rules” alleges that the National Iranian American Council (NIAC) may be operating as an undeclared lobby and may be guilty of violating tax laws, the Foreign Agents Registration Act, and lobbying disclosure laws.

• Is DOJ investigating the allegations put forward in this article? If not, why?

• Has DOJ found the allegations in this article to be true?

• What is the proper recourse against a 501(c)(3) group that engages in lobbying activity on behalf of a foreign government without registering as a lobbyist or filing papers with DOJ indicating that the group is a local agent of a foreign government?

 

======================================

On the relationship between Dr. Trita Parsi and high level officials of the vf regime:

//iranian.com/main/news/2011/08/27/trita-parsi-attending-good-bye-party-ahmadinejads-ambassador-un

 

//iranian.com/main/blog/masoud-kazemzadeh/documents-relationship-between-trita-parsi-and-vf-regime-official

 

======================================

On the credibility of NIAC:

//iranian.com/main/blog/masoud-kazemzadeh/how-many-actual-members-i-e-current-members-does-niac-have

 


MM

excellent advice Ramin - email as a template 4 TP's next article

by MM on

.


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Faramarz Jan

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

I know the law very well. I figure so does the FBI. Do you accept the judgment of FBI and IRS? They not only allow NIAC but make donations tax deductible. Look I am not saying NIAC is good. I am saying it is legal.

I am not a judge or FBI administrator. Nor do I have jurisdiction over these matters. {Sarcasm} If I did I would be selling Visas at cut rate prices and getting rich :-) Oops my Iranian side just poked its head out! 

I know people don't like NIAC. I know the reasons and I share many of your feeling. Personally I cannot stand some of their leadership. Way to Islamic and obsessed with Israel. But I agree with the stuff Anahid said.

I also think that you need to have access to IRR to influence them. They are sort of a channel that USA sees fit to keeo open. The Americans are hedging their bets. Let NIAC mediate {99% fail}; meanwhile try out MEK {100% fail}; or go for RP.

Maybe the Americans will try both approaches: carrot and stick. Neither will succeed. Because the IRI is not interested in carrots. And the stick is rotten. Then maybe would leave Iran alone and let it find its own way!

A novel thought!


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Talking to Shah

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

Who refused to talk to the Shah? If I recall it was BBC. NIAC was not even around then. It was the West that trashed the Shah. Them and JM; MEK & Islamists. By all means condemn them: as I do.


Ramin J

Advice to Trita

by Ramin J on

I am not sure if you read these blogs, if it is you or someone else who publishes your articles here. But if you do, here is my advice on how you can win over some of teh boggers on IC.

1. Before you go into your artlcle, your title and your first paragraph has to make it crystal clear that you HATE all mullahs and everything IRI.

Suggested title: Fuck the fuck fuck the Mullahs and then fuck them again

Suggested opening sentence: Mullahs are not human, all should be killed and if we have to destroy Iran for the sake of destroying the IRI, show me the button to push. Anyone who doesnt HATE the IRI so much that they can't destroy Iran for the sake of destroying the IRI must be put to death. HATE Mullahs, Hate IRI, HATE Iranians that travel to Iran.

2. Then you can go into the subsance of your piece, such as how war can be prevented etc.

3. Even then, in the midts of your analysis, sprinkle it with a few FUCK THE MULLAHS statements. It doesnt matter if it comes in out of place, the important thing is that the IC blogers dont lose sight of the fact that you are as hateful as them.

4. Your last sentence should also include a shout out to all the people who blindly hate and prefer to hate than to resolve conflicts. 

5. Finally, your byline is impressive to all except the IC blogers. To impress them, i suggest the following:

Trita Parsi wakes up every morning hating the mullahs. During breakfast he thinks of ways to destroy Iran to get at the mulahs, and during his working week, he writes Fuck the Mullahs a lot. He is also a PhD from Johns Hopkins and an award winning author, but that is less important than the fact that he blindly hates the mullahs.

 

My friend, if your next article follows these guidelines, the IC bloggers will treat you as one of them. Of course, you will lose all credibility outside of IC, and all ability to be influential, but at least you will have the support of the 5-6 pro-MEK and pro-Israel bloggers on IC who post under 20 different fake names.

so there you have it!

 

 

 

 


Faramarz

Reflexes!

by Faramarz on

VPK,

In order to lobby for a foreign government one has to file under foreign agent registration otherwise you get into trouble like the good old Billy Carter did. I don't believe that NIAC has done so.

To me, Trita Parsi, more than anything else is naive about the nature of the Regime in Iran because he left Iran at the age of 5 and I don't believe that he has been to Iran since. He also has some issues with Israel and AIPAC that is influencing his better judgment. Maybe doing his PhD under the ex-neocon Fukuyama at John Hopkins and the trips to Israel for his book did it. Who knows!

 

Cousin Mehrdad,

Do you not see Khamenei/Janati/Sepa/Basij in black and white terms? They sure see the rest of us including the brave youth of Iran in black and white terms.

And if you do see them in black and white and also do not see them as reformable, then what is the purpose of talking to them? To lift the sanctions and ease their pains!

Trust me, like Saddam, Ghadhafi and Assad, they understand only one language and that language is not spoken by a tongue!


alimostofi

Trita calls the Hezbollahis

by alimostofi on

Trita calls the Hezbollahis Iranian and that is wrong. This article is printed everywhere and he, as a representative of Iran, is totally out of line. I have personally asked him to be more accurate. What we need is the correct use of the word Iran and Iranian culture.

Ali Mostofi

//www.alimostofi.com

 


Bavafa

Farmarz jaan: you are correct...

by Bavafa on

We do see things differently, for me it is hardly black and white and I believe with such approach we as a community will hardly get anywhere.

As for the IEDs go, I view them more like the part of the cold war that has been going on between these two regimes.  US certainly has had its share of supporting elements/forces that has killed IRI armed and otherwise forces.  One can hardly disagree with that.  Of course there are some that believe US should be able to carry these acts with total impunity, some disagree in concept and obviously IRI has disagreed in practice.

One thing that you will need to ask yourself is…
Is it possible that due to my view of seeing things black and white, I fail to see the other parts that is not just “all about Israel-Palestine”

As for me… I take it one issue at the time and lend them my support for those issues that I care for and disagree with those that goes counter to my judgment.

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad


MM

Of course, Anahid

by MM on

I beg to differ from NIAC's actions, but I email them giving a piece of my mind instead of accusations of NIAC being an IRI agent.


shushtari

YOU GUYS

by shushtari on

EVER wonder why they did NOT 'TALK' to the shah??

was he really the monster who burned cinema rex, or killed '35000 in meydoon jaleh'???

this is the problem with all this nonsense- the so called 'government' of the akhoonds has destroyed iran beyond recognition, hanged thousands from cranes in public, assassinated thousands in cold blood, killed hundreds of us soldiers through its proxies, and on and on.....yet it has somehow always been worthy of 'being talked to.....and somehow deserves formal recognition and 'diplomacy'.....

interesting that such a vile, despotic group of nuts deserves so much respect and recognition for all it's crimes against iran!

 

I do agree that full diplomatic relations will finally bring these idiots down.....but we sure as heck don't need 'one their paid cronies to tell us that!" 


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Responses

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

Dear Anahid: Thank you for a reasonable port. I don't agree with 50% or more of what NIAC does. I have phone them and told them so. But I do agree with the stuff you said as well as opposition to MEK. Also I did join NIAC a while ago; just did not have the full 100 $ to give them so the settled for less!

Bahmani: Yes MEK is the real threat. NIAC is not trying to become the government of Iran. MEK is trying just that. They are also in the pay of Bolton; AIPAC and Neocon. I said before NIAC and MEK are two different issues. NIAC is an American lobby with no plans to influence Iran. MEK is a terrorist cult that wants to run Iran. NIAC even if everything Faramarz says was right is 1/1000 the danger of MEK. The NIAC leadership at worst at disagreeable. MEK leaders: traitors. Big difference there,


Anahid Hojjati

Dear Mehrdad, thanks for your comment

by Anahid Hojjati on

Some of the articles about NIAC are about them because they are the articles written by "Trita Parsi". As far as whether criticizing NIAC will do any good, that is up to NIAC. I have read some valuable suggestions on IC regarding what NIAC could do better. So I belive NIAC can listen to some of the voices even if people saying those are not members. Some might even be members.


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Faramarz

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on


Admiral Mullen is an official of the US government confirmed by the US Senate and has the authority to engage any foreign government to pursue the US interests.

This is where we get in trouble. Parsi has a right to act within the law. If he breaks the law American Government will deal with it. Not Iranian American diaspora; you or I. Do you need Senate approval to run a lobby: no. 

Why don't you let the FBI take care of anyone breaking the law. Meanwhile I am really sick of far right Iranian American intolerance. This is not about having a relation with IRI. It is about intolerance of differences. 

We had this problem when Shah was in power. We had it before him and we had it now. For some reason many Iranians find it impossible to tolerate dissagreement. You are either on their side or the ultimate evil. MEK does the exact same thing.


Bavafa

Anahid jaan: very well said…

by Bavafa on

Although I think it should not need to be spelled out to us, as there is hardly any organization that can satisfy every ones need.

What attracts me to NIAC is to have an organization that can give us Iranian-American a voice in Washington and strengthen us as community.  If we are not engaging to change its direction to meet our priorities OR creating an alternative and competing group, then it is ONLY our fault.

We can learn from our Jewish community in US and how AIPAC has helped in to protect their interest in Washington.

Article after articles on IC and elsewhere that is aimed only at criticizing without offering any viable alternative/solution will not make a damn change in NIAC or our standing in the America.

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Faramarz

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

1) I did not give them 100 $

2) Draw the pictures.


Faramarz

Cousin Mehrdad

by Faramarz on

 

I don't have much faith in NIAC because I don't trust its motives. Just look at where the energy of the organization is focused on. Remember the fundraising ad that was produced about a year ago? It talked about Iranian-American community with pictures of children and families, but the bulk of the ad was about Israel and pictures of Netanyahu, as if Iranian-American families worry about Israel/Palestinian conflict everyday.

As for the use of force, let's see, hundreds of Americans were killed in Iraq by the Regime-supplied IED's. If that's not an act of war, then what is? We should keep the threat of force in place until there is no threat from the Regime which most likely will come after the Regime is gone.

Everyday we witness more evidence that the Regime in Iran is not reformable and talking to them only prolongs the misery of the Iranian people. They are even killing their own children now. Why would they want to change? They will only negotiate when you put a gun to their head and at that moment we don't have any reason to negotiate. 

This issue is completely black and white, not half full or half empty.


Bavafa

I certainly appreciate cousin Farmarz insight…

by Bavafa on

As at least he focuses on the content, though when it comes to NIAC with a definite half empty cup if not fully empty and I don’t fault him for that, only noting it.   

Cousin Farmarz:  

I would have agreed with your analysis if NIAC’s message and approach was to “end the sanctions” as you seem believe it to be.  But judging by their action and not only their words, this is, I believe, not the case.  They emphasis is on sanction that can be most effective and that it would not play in the hands of IRI.  If history is our judge, USA has blundered enough times that has played right to the hand of IRI.

  As for threat of force, I believe it must end based on offensive posturing otherwise we don’t have a leg to stand on in criticizing the belligerent IRI posturing.

 

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad


Anahid Hojjati

One can be member of NIAC and not agree with their analysis

by Anahid Hojjati on

Currently I am not a member of NIAC but I used to be. I think one can still be a member of NIAC without having to agree with their recommendations about what US government should do regarding Iranian government. I guess if one pays about 100.0 a year, they might feel good if Persian Gulf name and the tablets are defended and NIAC does effort on behalf of Iranian students and their Visa issues and some other issues. Regarding this article, it was one of the better ones that I have read recently.


bahmani

But of course the MEK is the real threat...

by bahmani on

Once again, this article proves, that NIAC has the ability to make a good case against the IRI and for proper US-Iran strategy. I totally support NIAC in this endeavor. The sooner the US and IRI begin talks and regular diplomatic relations, the sooner according to Lazarus Long, we will be out of this mess.

"Your enemy is never a villain in his own eyes. Keep this in mind; it may offer a way to make him your friend. If not, you can kill him without hate -- and quickly."

Also good use of the new foreign policy buzzwords, "Soft Power" and "Statecraft". Man how Iranians are the master of the trend!

To read more bahmani posts visit: //brucebahmani.blogspot.com/


Faramarz

VPK, Sorry about Your $100 Donation!

by Faramarz on

VPK,

In business it is called good money chasing bad money! So you were conned out of $100 donation and now feel compelled to defend your decision.

If you cared to read what I wrote, I clearly stated why it makes sense for the US to have a hot line to the Regime. It allows the US military to prevent an unwanted escalation and gives the US the flexibility to wage war against the Regime at the time of its choosing and not to get dragged into a minor skirmish.

Admiral Mullin is an official of the US government confirmed by the US Senate and has the authority to engage any foreign government to pursue the US interests.

Trita is the head of a lobby group of 600 or so donors that erroneously claims to represent a million of us, Iranian-Americans and has engaged in activities that the majority of us do not approve.

Are we clear or do you want me to draw some pictures?


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Folks

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

Yes IRI is unreasonable it does not listen to reason. The problem is that with some bloggers all you need to do is say "Trita Parsi". They go into attack mode and also do not listen.

On one hand they demand NIAC make IRI see reason. On the other hand blame NIAC for having contact with IRI. If Mullen wants contact with IRI why should NIAC not have it? Or is Mullen also an IRI supporter! Folks the only way to have influence is contact. This is something Mullen and Parsi understand. But IC bloggers pretend to not. I think deep in their minds they know well the only way is through contact. But that would deprive them of the "self righteous" position.

Dear Fred and Faramarz if you are so against contact with IRI explain it to Mullen!  Maybe they should have a phone from USA to Parsi to IRI. That should work just with a middle man.


Faramarz

What Trita is Saying

by Faramarz on

 

Here is my take on what Trita is saying and proposing.

The US power and influence in the Region is on the decline and none of the governments in the Region, including the Islamic Republic are in a position of power either, therefore, there is a chance that an accidental military confrontation between the US, NATO, the US allies in the Region and the IR Regime can escalate into a major war. So let’s have a dialogue to prevent that.

OK, that sounds reasonable.

However, the US military has put forward the proposal for a hot line between the two militaries so that if a Sepah speed boat got too close to a US ship and got sunk, then that confrontation would not escalate into 10,000 sorties by F-16’s and the destruction of all the regime missiles, boats, radar facilities and command and control infrastructure in a matter of days. The US military has all the plans but prefers to go to an all out war with the Regime at the time of its choosing and not as a result of an accident. Therefore, admiral Mullin would like to pick up the red phone and tell the top Sepahi guy, “One of your boats ignored our warnings ten minutes ago and we sank it. Come pick up the remains in Bahrain. Sorry about that, but it was his fault.” And that would be the end of that episode.

But since the Regime is in a much weaker military position and prefers to maintain a threat of force without saying exactly what that threat consists of, is obviously not interested in a conversation about what it will do or will not do. The Regime would rather put the threat of “closing the Strait of Hormuz” or attacking US allies out there and hope that these threats would be sufficient deterrents to even a minor confrontation. Therefore, having a hotline is the last thing that the Regime would like to do.

So what do you do when one party wants a red phone and the other one doesn’t? You sweeten the offer by putting more stuff on the table so the party that doesn’t want the phone accepts the offer. In other words, end the sanctions, remove the threat of force and let’s do a Grand Bargain!

Nice touch Trita!


Bavafa

Great article, spot on analysis….

by Bavafa on

While we are bickering what nasty name to give IRI along with those who we disagree with, we could add our support and/or 0.02 cents to the content of arguments in the hopes to advance the cause of freedom and [secular] democracy in Iran and for Iranians.

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad


Soosan Khanoom

Dear MM,

by Soosan Khanoom on

Although the things you mentioned somehow counts and should be mentioned daily by the bloggers and commentators on this site to be approved by a few who think they are on the opposition committee on IC but no amount of that will ever qualify one as a real opposition if you still stand against MEK delisting, stand against any war on Iran and if, God forbid in between, you somehow feel for the middle-east peace or mention Palestine. Those are enough sins to have you labeled as an IRI agent, supporters , and the rest of the Bla Blas.  

So basically you are automatically doomed afterwards no matter how your choice of words is concerning the IRI. 

Now should anyone of us care ? Of course not ....