Letter from a Tehran Jail

A response to Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett

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Letter from a Tehran Jail
by patrickdisney
07-Jan-2010
 

In the New York Times yesterday (Jan 6), Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett–both of whom I deeply respect–argued that the protesters in Iran make up a small, demographically isolated minority of Iranian society, and their activities therefore have very little chance of enacting real, substantive change in Iran’s political system. For evidence of the protest movement’s weakness, the authors pose three questions:

“First, what does this opposition want? Second, who leads it? Third, through what process will this opposition displace the government in Tehran?”

Needless to say, none of the potential answers proves satisfactory.

The Leveretts are entitled to their opinion, sacrilegious as it may be to some. But in downplaying and even denigrating the activities of Iran’s dissidents, I fear that they will have justified the accusations that are sure to be flung their way–accusations of acting as apologists for the government, of disparaging a courageous and non-violent protest movement, and even of siding with Iran’s violent regime.

I am reminded of the Letter from a Birmingham Jailthe famous essay by Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. in which he decries the so-called “white moderate, who is more devoted to ‘order’ than to justice,” more concerned with the negative peace of the status quo than with bringing about that which is right through urgent action. By action, of course, Dr. King was talking about civil disobedience.

Like the “white moderate” in King’s letter, the Leveretts do not dare pin their hopes on seismic changes righting Iran’s political injustices. Instead, they recommend the US acknowledge the movement’s futility, embrace Iran’s current leaders, and secure America’s strategic interests through rapprochement. But their cynicism, which dismisses a popular movement without a manifesto, charismatic leader, or strategic playbook, ignores the plain and simple fact that repressive governments are inherently unsustainable.

People who have awoken to the dawn of a freer and more open society cannot be pushed backwards and kept permanently in darkness. Like Dr. King, the Iranians who take part in the protest movement–even if they are a minority–engage in civil disobedience in order to “bring to the surface the hidden tension that is already alive” in their society. Iranians have not always lived in fear of roaming militias or cyber-surveillance teams watching their every move online; nor have they been closed off to alternatives structures that value individual liberty over ideological fealty.

“Oppressed people cannot remain oppressed forever,” King said.

The yearning for freedom eventually manifests itself, and that is what has happened to the American Negro. Something within has reminded him of his birthright of freedom, and something without has reminded him that it can be gained.

In the case of Iranians, the “something within” is the long and arduous journey toward a democratic system of governance–a journey that began with the Constitutional Revolution in 1906, caught a fleeting glimpse of success with Mohammad Mosaddeq in 1953, erupted chaotically in 1979, and has been brewing once again since June 12. The “something without” is their forebears: Gandhi, Mandela, King, and Walesa.

I agree with the Leveretts’ conclusion that Iran’s government is not about to crumble under the pressure of the protest movement. But I believe now more than ever before that democratic change in Iran is bound to occur eventually. The events of the past seven months have revealed a conflict embedded deep within Iran that will not go away. It might be suppressed for awhile, but it won’t be extinguished. The struggle for rights will continue, and, to paraphrase President Obama on the night of his election, the Iranian people will “put their hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hope of a better day.”

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پندارنیک

I hope I am wrong

by پندارنیک on

Lack of consensus between you two, divaneh and vildemose, is by no means a scientific indicator of the degree of dispersion among Iranians in diaspora on the subject of popular revolt in Iran; it's only a token of magnitude of uncertainty. If you add a marginalized, if not non- existent, internal leadership and, an incompetent opposition abroad to that indicator then you will have a perfect recipe for a political disaster.


divaneh

Vildemose and Pendar

by divaneh on

I think the regime is far too divided to embark on a killing spree. Doing so would result in more of those close to the middle to leave the regime. They know it and they try to prevent that.

Pendar Jaan, it's not your handwriting and not your accent, your question has been answered a few times now. The demonstrators only react to the regime's level of violence and do not opt for it as they are the more vulnerable. Where it leads us, therefore depends on the regime's next move. I think the IRI will not escalate the violence as that will be their death wish.


vildemose

gaining capital out of a tragedy

by vildemose on

Pendar Neek: This will lead to whatever the Iranian people wish it to lead. I don't have a crystal ball to predict how the protesters will react in the future. But I do know that the regime will be more brutal and won't hesitate to murder its way through survival.

 


پندارنیک

Close but no cigar...

by پندارنیک on

Those who ventured in Ashura seemed more prepared for physical confrontation. Didn't they? I see it as a natural course of events though. I am not characterizing them as violent in negative kind of connotation whatsoever. It's the nature of "the business" so to speak. And now, you seem asking the same question as mine: What do you expect the protesters do when faced with wholesale slaughter? And where does it lead us to?


vildemose

Pendar Neek: How do you

by vildemose on

Pendar Neek: How do you characterize Hamas, Basiji, IRGC and Hizballah?? NON-violent, violent, teddy bears....


vildemose

My question is about the

by vildemose on

My question is about the rise in violence among opposition. Where does it lead them, us, you here, me on Mars?

Why are you characterizing the opposition as violent??? Your allegation is baseless, pure and simple. What do you expect the protesters to do when faced with wholesale slaughter??


پندارنیک

It must be my handwriting, then...

by پندارنیک on

It's good to have sense of humor, I wish it'd come in a package alongside a quality called comprehension. I do it for , hopefully, last time. It goes like this: The number is going down for KNOWN reasons. My question is about the rise in violence among opposition. Where does it lead them, us, you here, me on Mars?


divaneh

Pendar Neek

by divaneh on

The regime have frightened some people and send them home but not for a long time. This will leave the determined individuals on the streets. I think the violence is imposed on them by the regime and they still seem to follow the path of civil demonstrations, as witnessed in Ashura, before police charged at demonstrators. That has in turn caused more violence from the demonstrators.

I think we also have to bear in mind that it is not a fight against a united enemy and the regime is as divided as it can be. For that very reason I cannot see them daring or capable to unleash too much violence. Perhaps I am too optimistic. 


hamsade ghadimi

pendar nik

by hamsade ghadimi on

it's not your accent, it's your eyesight.  here are the reasons that the number of protesters have decreased according to vildemose.  vildemose wrote them and addressed it to you in bold letters.  i'm going to say it really slow so that you may understand:

risking arrest

risking life

risking torture

risking rape

risking loss of job

risking [the above] to family members

i'm glad that you have an unbiased opinion and welcome to earth.


پندارنیک

It must be my accent...

by پندارنیک on

You started off with a logical attempt to reassure me that decline in the number does not mean much. I have the tendency to agree with you on the occasional uselessness of quantitative methods; but winning and losing an election is based on quantitative parameters. Here and now, we have a majority of a nation who feel cheated out of their votes; they started to participate in HUGE rallies with peaceful overtones, and then they were confronted by the regime's ruthless reaction. I try to be more clear this time; we know the number is going down, however, the opposition movement is gradually resorting to violence. THIS is my question: What do you make of it? What do you think the future will hold if this trend prevails?

 

Your second paragraph which started with calling my name, ended with frisking me and a predetermined charge. I prefer to overlook it at this time, since, After all everybody has a right to become paranoid every once in a while.   


vildemose

Pendar Neek:   As bad

by vildemose on

Pendar Neek:

 

As bad as things have been

by vildemose on

As bad as things have been for Iranian protesters, the government could make it much bloodier. But then it risks straining the loyalty of the police/ basij and eroding IRI legitimacy even further. I hardly see the second option of clemency as very likely as the hardliners would be afraid it would be taken as a sign of their weakness. (Of course the reality is that they engage in such extensive repression reveals their weakness). My heart bleeds for the dilemma that the poor IRI ruling class finds itself in.

Most likely IRI will continue to control and limit communications, kill 'only' a few protesters at a time, and use state propaganda to keep the loyalists on their side. And IRI's hope is that the West will do something dumb to unite the country.


vildemose

Excellent interview with Shuster on NPR:

by vildemose on

PR SHUSTER: NPR: Shuster's interview: (...) It is certainly true that Islam is a very important factor in the conflict in Iran. There has been an Islamic republic that has governed Iran for 30 years. And it's a complex matter, this Islamic republic, because it's a compromise between those who waged the Islamic revolution 30 years ago in Iran and who wanted a purely Islamic government, and many who wanted a more secular government that was democratic in nature. And this was a hybrid in effect.

And it managed to keep the clerics significantly imbued with political power for quite sometime. But it also created a lot of dissatisfaction.

So, this has been a theme, a nexus of tension within Iran's government for 30 years. And it may simply be "that at this point, these two strains of political thought are irreconcilable, or Iranian's are having much greater difficulty now reconciling the two. if we try to gauge it simply by counting numbers, the numbers of, yesterday, of pro-government demonstrators and the numbers of protesters in the streets on Sunday and previously, I don't think that that necessarily gives us a really good gauge or what's going on in Iran.

 But you have to figure that the pro-government demonstrators, the government helped them get there. They provided buses. They gave them - many government workers the day off. They gave students the day off

//www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=122107996

 

vildemose

Pendar Neek:The number

by vildemose on

Pendar Neek:

The number of protesters is a stupid criteria to determine pro and anti government feelings when the anti-government protesters are risking arrest, life, torture, rape, loss of job, threats to other family members, persecutions, and the Pro government demonstrators not only don't risk anything but gain other fringe benefits. Leverette's argument fall apart quickly when you simply use your common sense.

Pendar Neek: I think you should ask yourself, why you really are resisting the truth? What will be your personal lossess in the event the IRI collapses?? I think the anser lies in the recesses of your pocket...


Darius Kadivar

More on Flynt Stone ;0)

by Darius Kadivar on

Flynt Leverett & Hamid Dabashi: "Iranians do not want to overthrow the Islamic Republic":

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJw7bGr6qvA

Also Read Abbas Milani's article suggested by vildemose below which constitutes an excellent response to these clowns ...

And on Charlie Rose:

with Flynt Leverett, Hooman Majd, Abbas Milani and Nicholas Burns
in Current Affairs

//www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10385

 


پندارنیک

An unbiased opinion

by پندارنیک on

this is what I know first-hand from inside Iran. The number of people participating  in opposition rallies has shrunk significantly. But demonstrations are being held with more directional activities and seemingly more violent substance. I wonder what to make of it.


mehdi2009

Researcher You are getting off subject

by mehdi2009 on

Dear Researcher,

Your points are well taken, however, you still need work to do.

I found your last post very amusing, as you tried to mix the Wonderful Movement of Iranian people with any other other nonsense.

In your last comment, you have talked about Iranian people's little Civil Rights. Which Little Civil Rights is that you are talking about???!!! Getting killed, maimed, raped and bludgeoned to death is not what the definition of Little Civil Rights are all about. This is so off base and laughable, and that is exactly what you had talked about it regarding Outrageous Claims. As far as Outrageous Claims are concerned this one takes the Cake!  

As for honesty of the original article, that is a matter of opinion as IF it is honest or not, BUT it Certainly is NOT ACCURATE or TRUTHFUL, and have not taken all of the FACTORS and VARIABLES of this Extremely volatile situation in our imprisoned country into account.

Salutations to ALL The TRUE Sons and Daughters of Iran.

Mehdi2009


divaneh

Thanks mehdi2009

by divaneh on

This response is very thoughtful but as you have reminded everyone, this struggle is not a Class War. It is a nation against a brutal dictatorship. Never mind about the RESEARCHER who does not even seem to have heard the official and unofficial demands of this movement. "Researcher" and the other IC user "Truth Seeker" remind me of our blind neighbour Einollah. 


Banafsheh Zolfaghari

What a Joke!

by Banafsheh Zolfaghari on

Bigger joke than their OpEd is the fact that this dynamic due (NOT) of a husband and wife were NSC staffers!!!  So much for US National Security, if they represent their best!  Kind of the other wanna-be Iran expert, Dr. Gary Sick!

Shameless pursuit of business (Energy) interests dictates their turning a blind eye to facts.  How did they ever earn the labl 'Iran expert.'  Ever question how many times they've traveled and how lond they've lived among Iranians?  Ever question how well they speak the language or how well they really (not what they claim) know our culture?  Being a contrarian, at any expense, is quite easy?   This time though, just as Gary has, you've stripped yourselves of your self-proclaimed titles of 'iran expert.'

Butt out of our business and mind your own!

 

 

 


Anonymouse

Green movement has already succeeded. More tangibles to come.

by Anonymouse on

Everything is sacred.


Researcher

Slogan throwing but no substance

by Researcher on

There is only one thing that the so-called Green Movement clearly knows and wants: rioting, destruction, violence and such!

You read Mousavi's or Karoubi's writings and neither one is expressing anything specific - just "freedom" or such empty meaningless slogans. Everybody in every country wants more of that, even in the US. So what? Nobody from this movement has asked for something specific or has proposed a plan of action that could be supported by most Iranians (not just people in northern Tehran). They only ask for people to pour into the streets and of course that inevitabvly leads to violence and destruction which itself leads to more government restrictions and fighting. This is a great way to take away the little civil rights that people have. Of course they promise a vague "final victory." This is just lunatic and irresponsible.

The truth is that the problems in Iran is not just the government. It is a whole culture that needs to be revamped and every individual is responsible for doing so. Iranians in the US and other "free" countries still are having serious problems amongst themselves. There are outragous claims that even that is because of the Iranian regime - which is in serious conflict with the claim that anti-regime is majority and not minority. Iranian regime is not controlling people in the US - Iranians have problem amongst themselves and they keep blaming it on anything or anybody they can. Again, irresponsible.

Let's get back to truth and honesty. The original ariticle is actually very honest and productive, if you pay attention to it.

 


mehdi2009

Researcher Wake up and smell the Coffee

by mehdi2009 on

Dear Researcher,

By your own admission, any one who opens his or her mouth and opines about this situation should at the minimum do a little bit of research.

Let me give you a dose of reality, so that next time you won't just speak before having done a first hand research. I was in Iran in June and November of 2009 due to family illnesses, and while there I spoke with a great deal of people, and chartered a Taxi for 2 days and visited most of the City of Tehran from South Tehran/ Rah Ahan to North/ Niavaran and Tajrish, and from East at Tehran Pars/Narmak to Shahriar in the west to gauge the people's Mood and Mind set.

To my greatest surprise the most Vehement Anti Regime Animosity came from the people of the South Tehran who are among the most Religiously Pious and at the same time the most impoverished people in Iran. The walls were full of Slogans such as AhmadiNejad ia jackass and a murderer; Death to Khameneie and other similar slogans which were written all over the place. And THIS WAS JUST IN SOUTH TEHRAN; just imagine for yourself what it was like in the rest of the city.

As for the Iranian People's Movement itself; again you talk just like a great deal of people who are against it and have no CLUE what the real deal is and are way out of touch. The Iranian People's Movement is Larger than you or any body can imagine, and the elements of the Murderous regime know this very well, otherwise they would not be Scared stiff and put out all of their MOST STUPID and BRAIN WASHED Spokesmen on TV to spread LIES and MISINFORMATION to their own audience.

The IRIB (Murderous Regime's Propaganda Arm) during the broadcast of the Murderous Regime's Dog & Pony show made a Huge mistake of showing the LARGE EMPTY SPACES in a Square which can Hold ONLY 35,000 People (What a massive shrinking 5% support!!!!), and then they compounded it by showing ALL OF THE BUSES that THIS HERD WAS BROUGHT in from the SURROUNDING TOWNS AND VILLAGES.

Therefore, while you are sipping your coffee or tea next time make sure that it is not of Decafe variety.

Salutations to the ALL TRUE Sons and Daughters of Iran.

Mehdi2009


vildemose

Jan 07 Iran’s

by vildemose on

Jan 07

Iran’s pro-government rallies fool nobody CNN | Hamid Dabashi (Posted by: Free Iran)

The Ahmadinejad government responded to the courageous anti-government protests throughout Iran in December by cranking up its propaganda machine to stage pro-government rallies. But that tactic won’t work.

Some people [IND: We know who...] who saw this clumsily engineered carnival might be led to believe that Ahmadinejad’s government, and by extension the Islamic Republic that he represents, is widely popular — and that the Green Movement demanding civil liberties represents a small minority of Iranians. It does not.

Bloggers created a comparative chart: In one, the security forces beat people up, push them down from bridges over highways, shoot with live ammunition, throw tear gas; in the other, the same forces greet demonstrators warmly, provide them with buses, free food and drink, and redirect the traffic for their convenience.

None of this is to suggest that Ahmadinejad and his clerical godfathers have no popular support. They do. People’s livelihoods and paychecks depend on cooperating with such sinister carnivals.

The louder such rallies scream, the more the world can see how dangerously aware the custodians of the Islamic Republic are of their illegitimacy. Go to CNN.


vildemose

I think Sheema Kalbasi has

by vildemose on

I think Sheema Kalbasi has a great point. I will also add that the number of protesters is a stupid criteria to determine pro and anti government feelings when the anti-government protesters are risking arrest, life, torture, rape, loss of job, threats to other family members, persecutions, and the Pro government demonstrators not only don't risk anything but gain other fringe benefits. Leverette's argument fall apart quickly when you simply use your common sense.

"A new outlet for Leverettes' op-ed pieces"

The opinions of two kinds of experts should be always viewed with deep suspicion: those who are driven by ideology and those who are driven by agenda. While the first group is blind to facts, the second group does everything to blind others from seeing the facts the way they are. Flynt Leverett is of the second kind. Everyone knows he is after a "grand bargain" with the Iranian regime. An idea that got some following in Washington on the basis of a fax sent by Iran ambassador to France at the height of Bush administration's campaign in the Middle East and Mullahs fear of being next in line.

Back to the claims of the article. First Leverettes do not have the courage to reveal their sources of "data" when assessing the size of pro and anti government demonstrations. But someone familiar with the Iranian media outlets can have a pretty good idea where these numbers may come from. The 2000 to 4000 number comes most likely from daily Kayhan, the mouthpiece of regime's security apparatus. When it comes to accuracy, fact checking, and quality of journalism, Weekly World News stories can be taken far more seriously than Kayhan's. How about Leverettes' claim of million march in support of government in Tehran which was organized by bussing people from all around the country, giving them free metro tickets, juice and cakes? Leverettes' "reliable source" seems to be tabnak.ir. Not as bad as Kayhan but not as reliable as Leverettes would like you to believe. This is a site that is close to Mohsen Rezaii, a former IRGC commander who despite his attempt to play the middle of the road game these days cannot be regarded as an independent party by any stretch of imagination. If Leverrets want to play the number game why not quoting Ghalibaf the mayor of Tehran (another former IRGC commander) as to the size of demonstrators who filled the Iranian capital in opposition to the fraudulent elections last summer? His estimate was 3,000,000. So according to Leverretes' calculus that would make it the largest gathering in the capital after Khomeini's death, right? And by the way Ghalibaf is by no means a reformer or an opposition sympathizer and is definitely no less independent than Mr Rezaii is.

The point here is that the Leverettes are using "demonstration size" data from regime's propagandists and other questionable sources to make a claim that is just as grand as their "grand bargain" idea. That the regime is here to stay. Something that even Khamanei is not too sure about these days.

I strongly recommend Levrettes to start sending their op-ed pieces to where they get their facts from, i.e. the daily Kayhan. I am sure they will be more than happy to publish them!
  
//zaneirani.blogspot.com/2010/01/new-outlet-for-leverettes-op-ed-pieces.html


Anahid Hojjati

Researcher,your comment is so wrong

by Anahid Hojjati on

LOL where Researcher writes in his/her comment:"Iranians "opposition" is practically non-existent, disorganized, disoriented, confused and very weak. Their methods of spreading violence and destruction of property and the so-called "civil disobedience" is outright dangerous.."

How can this opposition be nonexistent when the whole wor;d is amazed by it and impressed that people still demonstrate even when they know they are in danger of death, rape and jail.  Then Researcher calls methods of opposition dangerous.  What has been dangerous is the killing and the rapes committed by IRI.  Researcher; give readers of this site credit. 


vildemose

Abbas Milani's response:

by vildemose on


vildemose

I think we should all write

by vildemose on

I think we should all write to NY Times and respond to Mr. Leberette's propagada piece. We can start a letter writing campaign to major News media to  coutner propaganda of this sort in the future.

What so strange about the article is the fact that before Leverettes noone really called this a full fldege revolution to begin with. So, what is Mr. Leverette motivation for this pre-emptive propaganda tactic?


Anonymouse

More devoted to ‘order’ than to justice. Carbon copy in Iran?

by Anonymouse on

Excellent analysis.  This regime is creating disorder in order to 'claim' bringing order.  Death to dictator! 

Everything is sacred.


Researcher

I agree with the original article

by Researcher on

I want to thank the writer for bringing to our attention the original article. That is a fantastic article. I wish more Iranians and Americans would look at facts and stop daydreaming. Daydreaming can be very costly. Looking at facts does not mean a defeat, it means planning for REAL success instead of fancied wishes. Iranians "opposition" is practically non-existent, disorganized, disoriented, confused and very weak. Their methods of spreading violence and destruction of property and the so-called "civil disobedience" is outright dangerous - not to the regime but to the nation and people. Sometimes a little bit of research and planning pays off much better than some random rushed confused desparate action.


Maryam Hojjat

Mr. Disney, Thanks for your response to...

by Maryam Hojjat on

these two Leveretts who seems to have an agenda to benefit from by siding with a criminal regime such as IRI/IRR.

Payandeh IRAN & True Iranians 


Monda

Well written and necessary

by Monda on

patrickdisney, I appreciate your thoughtful feedback on the Leverette's piece