Iran predictions

Game Theory and how to loose the plot?

I can't believe this is a TED talk. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita advocates using Game Theory to predict the future of Iran and evidently influencing US Foreign policy. He says that schizophrenics are not rational. Wasn't Game Theory applied by Nash, a schizophrenic, during the Cold War to the whole social spectrum? Bueno de Mesquita is a consultant to the CIA and the Department of Defense! Is it me, are these people complete, clueless loons? Not very bueno!



I'm more likely to believe most of what Adam Curtis says in The Trap:

11-Apr-2009
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Marjan Zahed Kindersley

Hehehe, Khahleh Moshe

by Marjan Zahed Kindersley on

Wouldn't that just be....

 

I doubt it though; all about teamwork


khaleh mosheh

Will Games Theory

by khaleh mosheh on

Help us get to the World Cup too?


Marjan Zahed Kindersley

Thank you

by Marjan Zahed Kindersley on

for the interesting, enlightening and informative posts. They make sense to me ;) and give me more to chew on.

 

JJjoojoo. Thanks for fixing my digi-techno-dippy parts.;)


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Arash Parastu - Thank you for restating my point & clarifying

by Mehrnaz (not verified) on

As you say,

"Obviously these conditions cannot be applied to people, as even though some of us may "seem" as simple minded as some of these proposed automatons, people have this innate ability to, in an unpredictable manner, make decisions based upon factors that are not directly related to the situation at hand - case and point: fundamental analysts and the stock markets".

I also meant the discredited application of the rules of the Games Theory and its misuse in the innately complex human/social field.


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Re: Games Theory for fools!

by Arash Partow (not verified) on

Mehrnaz: Game theory has not been discredited, just its uses in some areas have been deemed futile.

There are many areas where it can be applied in a practical sense with some observable benefit. However those "areas" require the so called players or "automatons" to exclusively follow a finite set of predetermined options/rules that are deterministically realized by the current state that the automaton resides.

Obviously these conditions cannot be applied to people, as even though some of us may "seem" as simple minded as some of these proposed automatons, people have this innate ability to, in an unpredictable manner, make decisions based upon factors that are not directly related to the situation at hand - case and point: fundamental analysts and the stock markets.

A lot of how RAND applied game theory in the 1950s (which btw subsequently made it so popular) was based on the MAD posture, which didn't derive from game theory, but rather game theory was used to prove its efficacy with models in a mathematical sense.

In science whenever you can use "pure" mathematics appropriately to back up your claims, you will always be miles ahead of anyone else that simply provides empirical results or postulates with hot air.


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Games Theory for fools!

by Mehrnaz (not verified) on

Stupid pseudo-scientist! Does he not realise that the Games Theory is already discredited. The assumptions are so deterministic and reductionist, failing to consider complexity and altruism, and consider that there IS no unitary object (individual) free of contradictions who makes totally conscious decisions.

If Games Theory had any validity, could they not have predicted the absence of the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, or the subsequent quagmire and the murder of over a million people there, and the subsequent bankruptcy of the US economy ? ...


choghok

Game theory in action

by choghok on

If you want to see the game theory in action every day and "working" look at the traffic in Iran, it is based almost purely on the self interest and as little as possible regularized.

/Bidar bash ke ma bekhabim


Marjan Zahed Kindersley

Choghok. Sure, I mostly agree

by Marjan Zahed Kindersley on

What I find ludicrously insane is using the fundamentals of Game Theory. If you watch 'The Trap', you'll see what I mean.

It has already failed, isn't 'healthy', it's dangerous and I can't believe it's still being used as a basis for foreign policy and being advocated on TED.

 

I'd be more impressed if he would use his computer on the stock-market, which actually is based on self-interest. 


choghok

Mathematics

by choghok on

Mathematics is really a way of understanding of our surroundings, so it is not very strange that a formula could be written for finding answers to even political issues, since political issues are really base on physical and mental conditions of human beings and that could be parameterized.

But as I said I would like this tool to be used by several different groups from different political views. If they could come to precise same conclusion then I would think that this tool works very well, if the conclusions would differ a lot then the formula is not working.

/Bidar bash ke ma bekhabim


Marjan Zahed Kindersley

Pleasure

by Marjan Zahed Kindersley on

Glad some of you found it interesting and exactly, what about the data gathering, misinformation and appropriation of importance.

The whole thing sort of explains the paranoia of all these nutjobs. Problem is that normal people get caught in the insane firing line, just because of the one-dimensional notion that all people act only on self-interest. (Strange he can't predict the stock-market in this context.) They don't even consider reciprocal altruism which also has biological basis.

 

I can't wait for the day when "hunger for power" is considered a mental illness! LOL

 

Choghok, I love your sig with so many meanings!


choghok

Very Interesting!

by choghok on

I would like to see how they would gather data and how they would wight that data as well.

I could not see "sepah pasdaran" or the revolutionary guards in the chart, I think they are the main power in Iran right now. Were they represented there by Ahmaghinejad or by someone else or forgotten altogethere?

I like the program, thank you Marjan for sharing.

/Bidar bash ke ma bekhabim


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The 3

by ram Iran (not verified) on

All people living under abrahamic religion are absolute zombi's mentally challenged and distractiv to life and this planet that nat mach is going to be there soon - well good for them that they have after life to!


gol-dust

How do we know if this is part of their misinformation?

by gol-dust on

why? why not?


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I wonder what this computer

by Pnonymous (not verified) on

I wonder what this computer model predicts for US and A and its future?!