POINT

Ey Abarmard

man ye chandrozeye daram posthaye mokhtalefe in sito mikhonam va to har topicy be commente shoma barkhord kardam, vaghean tahte tasir gharar greftam va beseyar moteseram, shoma az akseton moshakhase ye seny azaton gozashte hadeaghal ye 15, 20 saly az man bayad bozorgtar bashid va moteasefane bad az inhame sal va shayadam ba chandta madrake doctoraton hanoz nafahmidin haghe mardome Iran cheye shoma va chandnafare dige ke onha ham sene pedare mano daran, haghe mosolame mardome Iran, haghe azadist, haghe harf zadan ast, haghe entekhab kardan ast na energie hastee ke ba in akhonda to Iran be bombe hastee khatm khahad shod, chetor cheshmatono mitonid bebandid, dar keshvary ke bish az 30 sale insanha hata az kochektarin hoghoghe ensany barkhordar nabodan, dar keshvary ke dar roze roshan va dar malaee am dokhtaran va khaharane maro sangbaron mikonan, javonhaye maro dar mizanan, dasto paye bachehaye maro ghat mikonan, dar keshvary ke meyan hata say mikonan boton bekeshan roye ghabre bozorgtarin marde on sarzamin ta mardom natonan Shahname bekhonan ta Arab beshan, dar keshvary ke say mikonan Saady va Hafez ro ghadeghan konan, dar keshvary ke eshgh ro koshtan va ba khashme Alahe Madine jaygozinesh kardan, dar keshvary ke dast mozde keshavarzan, zahmatkeshan dar hesbhaye Rafsanjani rikhte mishan va bagheyash be sode mardome Arabe Felestine biron rafte mishe, hamon Felestiny ke dar jange Iran va Iraq, az Sadam hemayat kard ta yek million javane Irany koshte she, hamon Felestiny ke hemayat az joda shodane Jazayere Iran be Arabha mikonad, dar keshvary ke range shady salhast dar cheshme mardome on dide nashode, hata bozorgtarin jashneshonam ke Chaharshanbe sory ast ba kotak va greftan javanha khateme peyda mikonad, dar keshvary ke baraye zan hich jaygah va maghamy dar jamee ghael nist va hamechiz ro haghe mosalame zan midanad, dar keshvary ke dar an faghr bidad mikonad va kheyabanhaye Tehran shode mamlov az dokhtaran Irani baraye forokhtane badaneshan, dar keshvary ke bozorgtarin saderatesh dar hale hazer forokhtane dokhtaran be shoyokhe Arab hast, dar keshvary ke forokhtan koleye yek amre normal va ady va yek shoghl baraye mardom shode, dar keshvary ke dokhtaranesh dar zendanha be tajavoz pasdaran dar meayand va bad edam mishavand va hata khanevadehaye anha ejaze baraye sogvary ham nadaran, dar keshvary ke saly bishtar az yekmahe bealaveye millionha dollar az sarmayehaye an sarfe barandazeye nohe khany va sogvary baraye dozdane Arabe Iran mikonad.... shoma va chand tan digar az dostaneton nafahmidid ke vaghean haghe mosalame mardome iran cheye va raehale shadeye on mardom ro energie hastee midanid ?? man vaghean baraye in nasle jadid va khodam motesefam ke shomaha bayad sarmashghe ma javonha bashid, chetor be khodeton jorat midid ke zady va khoshhaleye on mardom ro baraye manafeye shakhseye khodeton jaygozin konid ba energie hastee ?? to in chandroz daha post az shoma didam va hata dar yek jaham sohbataz azadeye on mardom nakardid, faghat hameja omadid tamame moshkelat va badbakhteha ro be gardane Amrica va Isreal endakhtin, vaghean che chyzy dar in donya mitone ba arzesh tar az azady bashe ?? Iran alan dar tariktarin ghesmate tarikhe khodesh hast ve shomaha bozorgtara be jaye inke sarmashghe ma javanha bashid, be ma az Ferdosi yad konid, be ma Hafez va Saady ro beyamozid, be ma dobare ashegh shodan ro yad bedid, be ma yad bedid ke chegone azad bashim va mazeye azady chyst faghat be fekre manafeye shakhsy hastid va haghe mosalame on mardom ro energie hastee midanid ?? Hokomate Akhony Arab avalin va arzon tarin haghe mosalame on mardom ke azadist ro beheshon nadade va hala dorost kardane energie hastee be daste in heyvanate vahshyro ghorore meli midanid va dar peyrove on ghadam var midarid ?? hata yeky az dostan posty zade dar bareye yek nojavane Irani ke dare dar Iran be daste in heyvanha edam mishe va dar khaste komak mikone, shoma meyayd ve bedone inke tavajohy be in mozo dashte bashid, in masalaro hamleye Amrica va naghsheye Amrica midonid va hamaro davat mikonid ke gosh be in chyzha nadahan ?? man vaghean baraye in nasle jadide Iran moteasefam ke moalemhaye hamchon shoma dare, man haghe mosalame on mardom ro Azady midanam va bas va vaghty in haghro dashte bashan ehteyajy be mano shoma va Akhondha nist kar baraye dashtane energie hastee barashon tasmim begirim, khodeshon mitonan tasmim begiran va tamame moshkelateshon ro hal konan.

Parthian

Until you don't master it, you don't know it. Simple as that. Being able to run the centrifuges in the proper speed, all aligned requires a technique that many countries in the world lack. You may learn those in theory, but must run a plant to learn the complete usage and technology. Iran is doing so. Research, the west is with, development the west is not. We are in the development stage and testing our techniques, which according to the western scientists it's our own.

This would a similar argument as to say, why go and built a oil refinery in Iran while we could use solar to produce energy. As I have mentioned before, you can draw thousands of products from this technology, similar to a refinery.

Again the technology is used in many scientific, research and development areas and should be mastered by Iran. It's not an exclusive Rights given to certain countries.
Solar would be great for Iran and hopefully the future we will move to that, if we are not bombed to stone sage!!

Nuclear energy is economical for Iran

Nuclear energy is economical for Iran. I am not saying that Iran must spend billions of $$ to build the reactors now (because it has much higher priorities), but that, those who argue otherwise have not done their homework. Let's look at the legitimate issues that the article and the commentators have raised:

(i) Iran does have vast oil and gas reserves (both second in the world). But, this is not the real issue. The real issue is what economists call COST OPPORTUNITY. CO means that a nation has a product that can use it itself, but if it exports it, it can use only a fraction of the income to come up for an alternative to the product that it sold, and keep the rest of the proceeds as net profit. In Iran's case, it is oil, and to some extent natural gas. Let me do a simple calculation to illustrate what I say. Consider the following:

(a) At present Iran burns about 140 million barrels of oil every year to generate 18% of its electricity, or about 6500 MW of electricity.

(b) Today, the price of oil in the US - West Texas Intermediate - was $120/barrel. When WTI is about $120, the average price of OPEC is about $10-15 less, say, $105. That means that the average price of Iran's oil is about $100-105. The average cost of producing a barrel of Iran's oil is about $6. But, let's say that it is actually $15, so that the NET profit of a barrel of Iran's oil is $90 (at the present price).

(c) Now, suppose that Iran EXPORTS the 140 million barrels/YEAR that it now burns to generate 18% of its electricity. That means, at the current price, Iran will be making a net profit of $12.6 billion IN ONE YEAR.

(d) The cost of building a nuclear reactor that can generate 1000 MW of electricity is, in the US, about $1.8 billion. In Iran it will be much less, because of cheaper labor force, no legal costs, etc. But, let's say that it is still $1.8 billion.
That means, if Iran constructs 7 nuclear reactors to generate 7000 MW of electricity (the same amount of electricity that the 140 million barrels generate), it will cost, $12.6 billion, that is the amount of net profit that Iran can currently make from A SINGLE YEAR OF SELLING the oil that it currently burns.

If we double the cost of the nuclear reactor to $3.6 billion, that would mean that with the net profit of only TWO YEARS OF EXPORTING THE OIL, Iran can pay for the construction of all the 7 reactors.

(e) The useful life of a nuclear reactor is 50 years. So, how much will Iran profit over that period, after spending its net profit JUST FOR THE FIRST YEAR, OR THE FIRST TWO YEARS, OF THE 50 YEAR PERIOD to build the reactors? The amount is simply astronomical.

(f) Of course, if the price of oil goes down, the profit margin will be narrower. What is the break-even point? According to my calculations (published elsewhere), when the oil price is about $35-40/barrel.

This is the meaning of CO.

(f) How about the cost of operating a nuclear reactor? It currently costs about $300 million/year to operate a 1000 MW reactor. So, Iran will have to spend a little of that profit operating the reactors, but the profit is still about $10 billion/year.

(ii) Natural gas: One may legitimately argue that Iran can use its NG to generate electricity. That is absolutely correct. But, consider the following:

(a) Iran is already generating 75% of its electricity through NG. This was only 8% in 1977. Iran also produces 55% of its TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION through NG. Both of these are very significant.

(b) Iran needs about 40% of all of its produced NG for REINJECTION INTO OIL RESERVOIRS in order to keep up the production. Since most of Iran's oil reservoirs are old or relatively so, the pressure in the reservoirs has declined. Therefore, NG is injected into the reservoirs in order to keep up the production.

(c) Iran has set up petrochemical industry that uses NG as the feedstock. THE ADDED VALUE OF THE PETROCHEMICAL PRODUCTS is about 100%. That means, if instead of selling the NG Iran uses it to produce petrochemical products, it will receive TWICE as much net profit. This is again what economists call cost opportunity.

(d) With the dramatic increase in the price of oil, the price of NG has also increasded dramatically. In addition, over the next 10 years, a NG cartel will replace the OPEC cartel as the leading energy producer. Therefore, Iran will be strategically positioned to play the leading role, the role that Saudi Arabia plays in OPEC now.

(e) Not burning oil will lessen the catastrophic pollution to Iran's air, water, and soil. NG is much cleaner, but it still generates longt-term pollution.

(iii) As for solar energy:

(a) It is not enough to have sunshine. One needs efficient materials for absorbing the energy and converting it usefully. Such materials exist but are very expensive. At present, the price of generating a kw of electricity by solar is about THREE times that of NG or nuclear. It is simply not economical AT LARGE SCALE. Yes, we can use it locally at small scales, but it not, not yet anyway, economical and competitive at large scale. That is why there is very extensive research going on.

(b) 60% of all energy consumption is for TRANSPORTATION. That means, solar cannot be used for 60% of energy consumption. It is naive to say that solar is the solution.

(iv) Is enrichment economical for Iran?

(a) Not with the present known uranium reserves in Iran. Iran's known reserves can currently supply nuclear fuel for a few reactors for 10-15 years (this is a controversial subject, I must say, because no one knows how much natural uranium ore exists in Iran). But, as I said, the useful life of a reactor is 50 years. So, where is Iran going to get the uranium for the 35 years that it has nothing? With the present political establishment in Iran, it will be a freezing day in hell BEFORE any nation sells it uranium ore!

(b) However, uranium is, like oil, a strategic product, in addition to be a security tool. So, when it comes to strategic products, other considerations, in addition to economical, must be taken into account.

(c) Why is Iran trying to build uranium enrichment facility, without a reactor? Because at the current pace, it will take about 10 years to set up the complete enrichment facility with 50000 centrifuges, which is the industrial scale.

(d) Iran's technology at Natanz is NOT the technology of 70 years ago. Centrifuge IS the-state-of-the-art. The P-1 centrifuge is obsolete, but the IR-2 centrifuge that Iran just announced its construction (confirmed by the IAEA) is actually quite sophisticated.

My apologies for such a long "comment." All of this and much more is published elsewherew.

What utter rubbish. Iran's

What utter rubbish. Iran's nuclear program started before this regime. A country has to plan 40 or 50 years ahead -- and by then there will be no more oil. The entire world is going nuclear -- that 's why the price of uranium has increased 10 fold. And Iran' nuclear reactors have no relation to Chernobyl. People shouldn't whine and complain about things that they're obviously not qualified to talk about.

Be Cautious before attributing "Iran" interests to regime

I love Iran to have  not only  nuclear energy but , also A Bomb.Yes you heard me right we must have an A bomb but not with this  alien khalifs occupation regime in charge .This only helps these malakhs .when khaliffs occupation over..Hell with rest of the world ..we will have A&B&C&D and any damn technology  we want.

Oops. Iran Forgot to Build a

Oops. Iran Forgot to Build a Power Plant for Its "Peaceful" Nukes! (But MISSILES, It Has)
Checking in on Iran's nuclear program, picking up on a report in the Guardian, notes a disturbing fact:

The Iranian check list for civilian nuclear power has something significant missing, as the Guardian noticed on a tour of its facilities. Uranium? Check. Centrifuge cascade for enrichment? Check. National will to face down the global community to produce nuclear fuel? Apparently in spades. How about a nuclear plant in which to use the fuel for civilian power?

Oops.

. . . . The Iranians have not built a nuclear power plant for this fuel type in the several years that they have claimed to have been working towards peaceful energy production. One would expect the Iranians to have invested in the production of power plants in parallel with the development of the fuel it requires so as to use the fuel immediately after it reaches the proper refinement level.

But Iran has done nothing along those
lines. The only uranium-based power plant that Iran has started to build is the Russian-backed reactor at Bushehr -- and the Russians insisted on supplying the nuclear fuel for that facility. The Russians stopped construction on Bushehr over some payment disputes, which appear more to be face-saving manuevers to discourage Iranian intransigence over their nuclear program. Iran has broken no new ground for any nuclear power plants in the meantime.

. . . . It's worth noting that while the Iranians seem reluctant to build the power plants, they have had little reluctance to building Shahab missiles with increasing range. Those appear to provide the final checklist item for Iran's nuclear program.

Of course, none of this is surprising to regular readers of this website, who may recall that Iran's parliament chanted "Death to America!" on the day that Iran voted to resume uranium enrichment. Here's what I wrote on the subject in December 2005. Sadly, I think it remains as true today as it was then -- except that we've lost over 18 precious months since then:

Encriching Uranium is not achieving nuclear technology.

P.S. The kind of Nuclear technology IR is pursuing a 70-year old technology and by today's cutting edge science standards it is completely obsolete. Learning how to optimally run Uranium encriching centirfuge machines and assembling parts (bought from European countries in the black market) have nothing to do with designing parts to build a nuclear power plant...This is all tragic hubris and waste of money.

//www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,2137598,00...

"Not for us Iran’s

"Not for us

Iran’s religious leaders' efforts to build a nuclear industry (and perhaps nuclear weapons) are taking it down a path of confrontation with the rest of the world which is guaranteed to increase the country’s isolation and contribute to the worsening of the economic pressure on Iran’s impoverished population. I’m not just talking about the short-term potential or additional sanctions or even military action against Iran, rather taking a longer-term view.

Let’s put knee-jerk nationalism aside for a moment. Before we parrot the mullahs’ line in claiming that nuclear energy is our legal and God-given right, let’s try to think systematically about Iran’s nuclear ambitions in an objective framework, and examine the potential motivations for pursuing such a program.

Iran’s nuclear ambitions go back to the Shah, who started Iran’s nuclear program in the 1970s. (by the way, how many Iranians would support the nuclear program if the Shah was still around?) There was then, as there are today, three possible motivations for pursuing such a program: as part of an overall energy strategy, to acquire technology in a critical field, or to develop nuclear weapons.

Energy: Iran holds one-tenth of the world’s oil reserves and has the second largest gas reserves in the world. In this context, the development of nuclear potential as part of a long-term energy program should be a very low priority, as the country’s conventional energy resources will provide its energy needs for decades, if not longer. A program of energy conservation and development of alternative clean energy would clearly be more cost-effective. Furthermore, there are clear security concerns. Not only is Iran at the center of one of the most active earthquake zones in the world, but I do not think that we would want to entrust the safety of operations of a nuclear plant to this corrupt and inept government. The combination of these two factors does conjure the specter of another Chernobyl-an issue which has been raised by Iran’s neighbors.

Technology: If the object of the program is to achieve mastery of a key technology, why doesn’t the government harness Iran’s capital and immense human talent to become a global leader in environmentally-friendly alternative energy technology? We only need to look at the outstanding scientific and technological achievements of our fellow Iranians in the United States to believe that this is possible. Our neighbor Qatar, also a major natural gas producer, is on the verge of launching a multi-billion Gas-to Liquid (GTL) plant, which converts natural gas into clean diesel fuel. Why not Iran? At this stage, what has the Islamic regime achieved in terms of nuclear technology, except maybe having obtained a few grams of low-level enriched uranium by using a second-hand, and essentially unreliable stolen Pakistani centrifuge technology? What’s the next step?... more below"

//iranian.com/Opinion/2006/June/Nuclear/i...

I agree totaly with Mohammad

I agree totaly with Mohammad Ali Reza. I remember the students in Esfahan university back in 70's criticized the privious regime for investing in nuclear technology, Bushehr nuclear plant was built unfinished by Amercians, the fact is that the plant is obsolete by todays standards! If they (Ahmadinejad, Rafsanjani or Khamanei) care of Iranian nation, then they should not put the country and Iranian people in harms way ...

Nuclear Technology is Only One.....

of several feasible alternative energy sources. Solar, of course, is another one of them. We have the technology to drastically reduce the worldwide use of petroleum. It's right in front of us.

While Iran has every right to nuclear technology for civilian electricity, with that right comes an equal, if not greater, measure of responsibility, which quite honestly, no one in the IRI is willing to accept. Therein, lies the dilemma. In this matter, the IRI is not a customer at Burger King...they can not have it "their way".

Not only do we have the mystery surrounding the IRI's real intentions, but let's say for the moment that it is for civilian electrical purposes. How do we know that the buildings housing radioactive materials are able to withstand seismic activity? We don't really know, because the IRI simply refuses to be straightforward, open and transparent in this matter, or in any other matter.

If solar energy would do the

If solar energy would do the job, then west would increase their solar energy facilities not nuclear.
If west was sure Iran does not have nuclear bombs they would have attacked Iran long ago.
If we don't do as they say, everything is an excuse for confrontation even if grow vegetables.

However to prove to the world, Iran can buy some of the fuel needed from South Korea. This way they get a better price due to South korea's bad economy and they help South Korea's much needed economy. This way the eggs are not in one basket.

They should also make some solar energy just to keep Alireza happy and some from V-8 juices and dates to keep Ben happy.

I completely agree with the author...

I don't doubt, according to the polls, that most Iranians see this as an issue of national pride, and support the nuclear program. But, there is a huge flaw with this argument, as everything else in IR, little open discussion(pro vs cons) is been permitted on the issue. So we are not sure what the real support level the program has if Iranian people knew the complete extent of the problems with such ambitious. It is risk vs gain.

I wonder if People like Abarmard (who will be Abarzan because he will not show up here to admit wrong), or Feshangi will have the guts to come on this site, and admit their wrong view at the time of the first nuclear core melt down in Bushehr.

First of all, Abarmard completely misses the point of the article. No ONE is against Research and development of any technology at small scale. You don't need two full size operating reactors, a heavy water(D2O) heat reservoir that serves as a cooling system for ultrapurification of Plutonium (costs Millions of dollars), thousands of centrifuges, and not to mention nuclear plants built on seismic faults to obtain medical technology. All medical applications can be obtained from small scale research.

This is the second gravest mistake Iranian people are making in the last 30 years. First was the revolution, and second is this notion that Nuclear energy somehow is a sign of modernity, and power. This is the same superficial bullshit we had during Shah, where Iranians flying American made F14 was thought to be "progress". This is a false, and superficial way of understanding modernity, and progress.

If you don't execute a child, imprison a journalist, or don't rape and kill a photograph by hitting her head with a pair of shoes, than you have really made progress. Why is the nuclear program a mistake? Because these stuff is being built in a country that has a terrible record of safety when it comes to earthquakes. Because the so called progress is nothing but old 1970's soviet techonology which caused the Chernobyl. You have technology from a country with a terrible record in safety given to a government of another country with its own terrible record of safety, in a country with at least one siginificant earthquack every decade. Germany will have all its nuclear plants shutdown fairly soon. If this is not a recipe for disaster, I don't know what is. I can't believe the shallowness of those who think that Nuclear energy will bring prestige and pride to a country that has the most number of death sentences per capita.

 Nuclear energy is not a move forward, it is a move backward.

Some data...

Anyone saw the recent broadcast (PBS?) on solar energy. Here is the highlights of that program:

10% of Nevada desert covered with new efficient thin-film solar panels can supply the energy needs of all US households.

Similarly some 10% of iranian Kavir covered by solar panels can supply the energy needs of all iranians households for years to come.

50+% of european agricultural land is contaminated with radioactive material and rendered unusable. The contamination is caused by various nuclear testings and blow-outs by european countries.

We should not place all our

We should not place all our eggs in one basket. It is not wise to depend only on one or two sources of energy.  Iran has been using oil for the most part, but she also has been very successful in producing hydro energy by building many dams all over the country.  Now we are trying to produce nuclear energy. I agree with you that we need to also invest in solar energy and any other forms of energy that is feasible geographically, such as wind energy. The nuclear energy technology may be old, but it works and once built, it can be upgraded as the technology advances. 

Feshangi

Re:

I have written about his before... I completely agree. Iran has many many many many many other priorities, and this is not a priority by ANY means. Iran doesn't exploit its oil and gas reserves well because of the lack of investments. Iran is not investing in education and infrustructure because of the lack of interest of the regime. I seriously see no reason for the nukes other than making bombs, so that the regime will feel safe from any possible future outside threats! They have seen the Taliban go, and they have seen Saddam go, so they know if they will have THE BOMB they won't go so easily ;)

Please consider all factors before writing

Please don't jump to the conclusions. There are 75,000 products that originates from oil. It's a source of many vital products. The Nuclear Technology, as the name suggests is a technology. Energy is only one part of it.

If you have researched enough you would realize that many new Iranian medical research or medical technology (to name one) has advanced dramatically since the development of this technology.

It's a Right to know and have. If it's feasible, like any other countries including the US (In the deserts of US), then the solar technology will be implemented. Until then, I want us in Iran to enjoy this technology to the fullest.

Science is not exclusive to certain nations. That's absurd. I am not against the solar tech, but we don't need one over the other. We do need Nuclear technology for space, medical, and technological advances of our future. It's not exclusive to energy, know that for a fact.

A country such as US that holds 25% of the wealth of the world, goes to Iraq and Iran, starts wars and creates human catastrophes to have oil! you want Iran to stop its scientific research?

No my friend, that's not just for energy, thousands of products and nano techs can be driven from this. We need to know and master it. No doubt about it.