Tipping point of Iranian movement is here


Tipping point of Iranian movement is here
by oktaby

Weeks leading to June 12, 2010 did not seem to bear any significant news or expectations. islamic regime had gotten lucky with distractions from the Iranian uprising. The flotilla incident and then UN resolution on nuclear issue. Kyrgyz clashes were also helpful. Over the past year the regime has, in its own estimate and propaganda, successfully suppressed and choked the movement.

But the real event continues to be within the movement that despite the appearances firmly has the upper hand. In spite of side shows, the most significant sign of what is truly happening was the Mousavi/Kahroubi call for people to stay home. The explanation made sense on the surface; 'That regime is ready and wanting to forcefully crush protests and risk was too high for people, so timing is not good'.

Anniversary of people's uprising is not good food to do uprising. Very interesting.

That un-invite to protest is telling of a tipping point of revolutionary proportions; but not not as M/K duo presented it. From day 1 people's organic demand seeded by regime's attempt at an election show, was represented by Mousavi, not him creating or leading a movement. To that extend he was the leader of the movement as long he reflected the wishes of the movement. Even Mousavi's progressively stronger positions and implying the islamic constitution was 'changeable' indicated as much but he keeps repeating khomeini & holy islamic constitution. Greatness was bestowed upon him by the Iranian people, but he lacks the composition or strength for it. Maybe, just maybe, he understands as much and is helping the movement with knowledge of his own limitations, and regime's Redline. If true, that in itself is a form of service. That may also be true of Kahroubi who stated as much yesterday: 'future is in the hands of Iranian people'.

The statement telling people to stay home on the anniversary was an unmistakable signal that the regime's very existence, and hence that of Mousavi/Kahroubi is at stake, as they are a subset of the islamic regime & constitution. This risk of demise was stated by regime's own statements and implicit understanding and agreement of Mousavi/Kahroubi that yesterday could have been the end of islamic republic. As much had been unambiguously stated after Ashoora protests by Sepah leaders: 'had the 5 key protest crowds managed to join, Tehran would have fallen'. The regime realized that with the right spark their tanks and guns will be useless except to kill a few more, if people's anger hits its stride.

People inside and outside of Iran came out anyway. Not as massively as Ashoora but they came out more widespread and united. Remember, Ashoora protests, the largest and most potent so far, were not called for by Mousavi/Kahroubi. It was the dynamic of movement itself as was yesterday. On Ashoora, the anger and frustration of the people started to show in the form of fighting back not the preachings of Mousavi/Kahroubi.

'had the 5 key protest crowds managed to join, Tehran would have fallen'. The uninviting of the protesters was not out of concern for the people but for the totality of the regime. Yesterday crystalized Mousavi/Kahroubi's symbiotic interdependence, and the tipping point, with the very regime they supposedly oppose.

The movement has taken notice and will shift accordingly.


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more from oktaby

Beast eating its own children. poetic justice!

by oktaby on

We can expect many more events like that of Qom with Montazeri & Kahroubi. This is the cornered animal growling and showing its fangs; but in fear. Mousavi/Kahroubi et al have tried to make a bargain for power at the expense of people. That bargain will cost them their power base first, freedom next and possibly their lives. This beast will continue to eat its own children as it has in the past.


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

amgw4 : giving

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

free lessons on how to loot Iran!! Pretty hilarious; I guess it takes a Mulla to know how to steal Iran's Moolah :-)

Next amgw4 is going to be giving lessons at Harvard Business school to IMF and I don't mean the dude from Lebanon! Heh heh heh.

Irani Irani

In IRI, the geda "looters" are the rulers of the country

by Irani Irani on

The murderers and rapists are Khomeini, Khamenei, present and all past "presidents", Mousavi, Karroubi, and pseudo-Parliament (aka Majles). That's what happens when akhoonds and the akhoond's executioners (aka IRGC) hijack oil and natural gas revenues for 31 years. One Rapist sets himself up, and then helps his kids, grandkids, nephews, and other smelly, illiterate relatives to move up in life. It's the way of doing things in the Rapist Regime, whose entire economic output is well under small, insignificant states in the U.S.

BTW, did anyone notice that the Rapist Regime came to power by setting banks, cinemas, police stations, and cafes on fire in 1978-79 during the orgy of arson and murder called the Islamist Rapist Revolution?


if you want money beg for it like normal gedahs

by amgw4 on

don't organize riots so you can loot banks

boom shakalaka

As I have maintained all along...

by boom shakalaka on

Moussavi, that seyyed prick bastard, must be charged with crimes against humanity (mass murder, really) for his involvement in the butchering of some 20,000-25,000 political prisoners in the summer of 1988. He was Khomeini's prime minister then. He must pay for all that blood with his own, and soon.

As Khomeini's nokar and favorite shoe-shine boy, Akhund Karroubi should fare no better.

Well put, oktaby, indeed.

Iran is a prisoner of IRI 


Much obliged OI. Maa bishomaareem

by oktaby on

This is our collective love & duty as Iranians as these are dangerous times. Iran can ill afford another mistake like 79. 



Nicely done Oktaby

by Onlyiran on

I truly admire your great analytical skills and your ability to cut through the BS and get to the real point and to describe the inevitable conclusion.  

Keep up the good work, and thank you for being a great Iranian. 


AO jaan, you are right, this regime will go. That's why

by oktaby on

now thru the day it falls is high time we the Iranians influence its direction and course. Meanwhile, this regime is like a cornered beast now and will violate every norm and rule to continue its miserable existence.

Oddly enough, the end of Mousavi & Kahroubi will likely come at the hands of their beloved islamic regime & constitution not any post IRR government.



Oktaby you are very correct sir

by Khar on


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Mahmoudg jan

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on


Both Mousavi and Karrrobi are IRI supporters. No secret there. They have one purpose. To blunt peoples anger and prolong the IRI. To give more time to Mullas to line their pockets.

They should know that they will be put on trial. That the stolen money will be recovered. So they are wasting their time. The carrot should be: go now and keep some money. Go later and keep no money and go on trial. 

Regarding bread and butter: bread and butter issues will hit once they remove subsidies. When prices go up. People get mad. Then strikes and demonstrations. T

Anonymous Observer

Oktaby Jaan

by Anonymous Observer on

Great analysis as always.  The bottom line is that this regime will be toppled, whether from within its own apparatus or at the hands of the people.  It's only a matter of time.  


benross, it is a new turn

by oktaby on

masoudg, I believe the focus at this point should be on making the movement more cohesive and united. This includes bringing in the 'bread & butter' issues to the slogans and protests so the movement resonates more with the poor and lowest spectrum of working class. There will be plenty of time for crime & punishment based on due process, legal & fair proceedings under a new secular constitution.

Rea,  Kurdistan was a step forward that more directly connected a regional/tribal protest to the broader movement; A model to follow and one that worked in 79 but we are not there yet. A general strike can take hold when more layers of society's anger and frustration is channelled into engagement, as I mentioned with 'bread & butter' issues. I suggest instead of pointing the obvious, stand up and act on what you believe can be done. How would you orchestrate a general strike that everyone will follow tomorrow? or could have yesterday?

A general strike is part of final 1-2 punch not the process and the several rounds that gets a movement to that point. Lets walk first. 



The Government of Iran will not be toppled...

by Javan on

God what have you learned for over 30 years...

The government is here to stay, however we can take ownership of it.  

Mehdi Karroubi is a great man and a good Iranian Muslim.  It is people like him who are getting hurt and people like him who will take over and deserve to take over the leadership of Iran.  

Not like the sell outs who live in their plush houses and talk smack.



I remember reading on IC recently

by Rea on

.... about a general strike in Kurdistan province, people protesting the May executions of 5 activists.

This time one would've expected a general strike in the whole of  Iran. Minimizing risk of getting people killed and yet marking the anniversary of last year's killings.

Hope the iranian oposition "has taken notice".



by benross on

The momentum just started.



by mahmoudg on

Moussavi Karroubi are actually agents of this same regime and they realise, they will be the first to be put on trial when this social movement is successful in toppling the regime and hence Islam.