Nuclear poison

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Jahanshah Javid
by Jahanshah Javid
02-Feb-2010
 

Ahmadinejad's announcement that Iran has accepted the U.N. offer to enrich some of its uranium will reduce considerable pressure building up against the regime, for the time being.

The United States, which has been trying hard to convince its allies, as well as Russia and China, to impose tough sanctions on Iran, will now have to rethink its strategy. Sanctioning companies selling gasoline to Iran, as demanded in a bill close to ratification in Congress, may also have to be put on hold.

Meanwhile the threat of military action by Israel may also subside, although given Tel Aviv's long-term fear of Iran's nuclear program, that could be wishful thinking.

By accepting the U.N. terms the Islamic Republic will now also be seen as cooperating with the international community rather than continuing to be seen as a belligerent rogue state.

Ahmadinejad can put on a smile and make a big speech on 22 Bahman bragging about how he has played the world powers and come out victorious.

But nothing is that easy or pretty when it comes to the Islamic Republic. Diplomacy for this regime has a very different purpose than what the rest of the world is used to. Nothing is clear or straightforward and promises can be (and most likely will) be modified or withdrawn in the days and weeks ahead.

The biggest problem is that the regime does not operate with common sense and pragmatism. Decisions are made not through consensus among the best minds in the country, but by a small circle of autocratic, defensive, xenophobic leaders headed by Khamenei, who is desperately trying to crush the biggest domestic threat to his reign and save the very existence of a widely hated theocracy.

And despite Ahmadinejad's cheerful announcement, many within the regime will not be smiling. He even mentioned that some officials do not trust the U.N. and doubt that Iran would be handed enriched uranium.

Confrontation, particularly with the west, is what this regime thrives on. A compromise is bound to anger the hardliners who have constantly opposed any deal. I can hear them asking, "Is this the great news you had promised on the anniversary of the glorious revolution? Compromise with our enemies?"

When Khomeini finally agreed to a ceasefire after eight years of a futile and devastating war with Iraq, he likened it to drinking poison. What he was alluding to was that for the entire course of the war he and the rest of the leadership had vowed that the Islamic Republic would never ever ever rest until Saddam Hossein was punished for invading Iran.

Suddenly the weight of reality had forced Khomeini to surrender. Suddenly all his daily uncompromising speeches, all those "War War Until Victory" slogans rang hollow. He had led hundreds of thousands of young men to their deaths, seen the destruction of much of the country's military and economic infrastructure, sent thousands of young men and women to the gallows for their opposition to the regime, and gotten little satisfaction in return. The tremendous sense of guilt and shame was the poison that killed him less than a year later.

Now the Islamic Republic has again swallowed poison in the face of enormous international pressure and domestic upheaval. Suddenly it is bowing to the U.N. after years of insisting that it would never ever ever compromise over its enrichment program.

Will this poison be as potent as the one that knocked out Khoemini? Time will tell. What's certain is that it will cause much anger and confusion within the regime and leave it vulnerable to attacks by the opposition who will point out to capitulation from the position of utter weakness.

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hass

US wants a bahaneh

by hass on

The Iranians have consistently attempted to resolve the standoff over the nuclear issue, but the US and Israel want another pretext to attack Iran, and so no amount of compromises by IRan will ever suffice.

 THis is what IAEA head AlBaradei himself said:

 I have seen the Iranians ready to accept putting a cap on their enrichment [program] in terms of tens of centrifuges, and then in terms of hundreds of centrifuges. But nobody even tried to engage them on these offers. Now Iran has 5,000 centrifuges. The line was, "Iran will buckle under pressure." But this issue has become so ingrained in the Iranian soul as a matter of national pride.


marhoum Kharmagas

bale jenaabe motokhassess! (to VPK)

by marhoum Kharmagas on

VPK says: "What a miserable bunch: Sare sag mizanan motekhases dar miad."

As we Esfahanis say "shouma doros migioeeed" genaabe  motokhassess!


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Re: Playing for time

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

Who cares about what the Leveretts say or think? We have heard their "arr arr" for too long. They should get back to "tavileh". Of these bunch the Leveretts make me the sickest.

How about the other idiots: Jimmy Carter; Francis Boyle; Ardeshir Ommaini; Mr.  "child rape" Abdolali Bazargan. Oh and Mr. "child execution" Marandi.

What a miserable bunch: Sare sag mizanan motekhases dar miad.

 


marhoum Kharmagas

Playing for time

by marhoum Kharmagas on

Leveretts view on this:

//www.raceforiran.com/


AMIR1973

Jaleho: I agree, let's keep politics out of this

by AMIR1973 on

I'm not sure if we are referring to the same case or to 2 different people with brain tumors. In any event, I can say as an oncologist that it is factually inaccurate to make a categorical statement of the sort made by that doctor that "For low grade gliomas, there is no other treatment than surgery. the tumor cells just don't grow fast enough to respond to chemotherapy or radiation." Indeed, there are randomized prospective studies, single-arm prospective studies, and retrospective series showing that LGG can and do respond to radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy. Radiotherapy, in particular, has been shown to prolong progression-free survival for adult LGG. If you can get access to NCCN guidelines online, you can verify this on your own. If the patient were to be evaluated at any major hospital, I would expect that they would get an opportunity to visit different specialists (surgeons, medical oncologists, and radiation oncologists) to hear their views (or at least the patient's case would be discussed in a multidisciplinary conference). I wasn't trying to rush anyone out of Iran. In my case, I also mentioned that there is a Gamma Knife unit in Tehran. 


Jaleho

Dear Amir, I am amazed that a professional

by Jaleho on

would react the way you reacted! In the first place, you yourself referred to Boston children hospital and you know that most surgeons there are Harvard professors too, on top of the research. And the blogger himself was interested to know the opinion of brain surgeons at Duke Universty because everyone knows the surgeons there don't tend to OVER SIMPLIFY, they are top notch and world famous in their field. As a coutesy to the blogger's request, I precisely contacted a relative there, and although the response had the modifiers:

"A little hard to speculate.......It would be useful to look at the films if possible....", I hesitated to post this there since it did not add a specific help, until I saw that other suggestions might add specific harm in rushing a kid out of the country without first making sure that it is a good idea!

I hope that the blogger that I though was the father does a thorough search, send the MRIs to be studied by relevant professionals before he makes a hasty decision.

I think it is extremely wrong to mix up politics with the content of that particular blog.


AMIR1973

Ari jaan

by AMIR1973 on

Unfortunately, I don't have much professional expertise on the clinical use of Molybdenum 99 or other such Nuclear Medicine radioisotopes. If you want my personal opinion (and maybe you don't  :-), whatever the politics of the lousy IRI, as a doctor I have to say that getting patients the care that they need should come first. Other than that general principle, I haven't studied the issue sufficiently. Anyway, good luck hamvatan-e man.


Ari Siletz

AMIR1973

by Ari Siletz on

"...the child should be seen in a multidisciplinary setting by a neurosurgeon, medical oncologist, and radiation oncologist. "

The statement is very close to what my source said.

By the way, any thoughts on the ongoing Molybdenum 99 shortage and how it is affecting medical decisions by doctors?



AMIR1973

Jaleho and Ari re: neurosurgeon's advice

by AMIR1973 on

 

The neurosurgeon you contacted stated: "For low grade gliomas, there is no other treatment than surgery. the tumor cells just don't grow fast enough to respond to chemotherapy or radiation."

That is a GROSS oversimplification on the part of that doctor. A phase 3 randomized study done in Europe showed a progression-free survival (PFS) with early radiotherapy in adult low grade gliomas (LGG) as opposed to radiotherapy that was delayed until the time of progression (bottom line: most of the patients on both arms ended up getting radiotherapy). There was no overall survival (OS) benefit, but again, most patients got radiotherapy at the time of disease progression, and this might partly explain why there was no OS benefit. A number of chemotherapy agents can be used in young kids (especially <5 years old) with LGG, namely Carboplatin and Vincristine. I think that doctor is espousing some surgical dogma, rather than evidence-based medicine. That being said, the child should be seen in a multidisciplinary setting by a neurosurgeon, medical oncologist, and radiation oncologist.


Ari Siletz

Jaleho, The West damned better deliver...

by Ari Siletz on

...would have been the position to take if Iran had agreed to ship the uranium.

Though it is difficult to assess exactly how Iran is negotiating the nuclear issue, it seems there is an inappropriate mixing of IRI (and the West) power play and the actual needs of our people.

Here are the three separate issues:

1. Medical: Non-negotiable as of right now. We need that medical reactor refueled. Ahmadinejad should not use this as a "clever" political tool to show up the West and bolster the regime's popularity. As for the West, they know full well that the reactor's 120 kg of 20% uranium isn't enough to make a bomb (at that level of enrichment it would take at least 400 kg!). This should have been a cinch to negotiate, if the issue hadn't been mixed with other motives.

2. Economic: negotiable in the short term, non-negotiable in the long term. To meet the nation's future energy needs we are going to need those megawatt capacity reactors. But for now Iran has some leeway for concessions and assurances.

3. Political/military: Always negotiable. If IRI is going to couple this component of the negotiations with the others for the sake of "cleverness," or for the purpose of not kowtowing to the West, it could ethically couple with the less urgent economic use of enrichment, NOT with the medical use, as the regime seems to have done.

At this point I suppose I should wish Dr. Salehi luck with the tremendous moral responsibility that has just been put on his shoulders. But he damned well better deliver.


Anonymouse

Ahmadi's highly advanced negotiating technique as a superbowl ad

by Anonymouse on

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNb7IexIYlo

The guy who "didn't surrender" uses Ahmadi's highly advanced negotiation techniques! 

Everything is sacred.


Jahanshah Javid

Jaleh Joon

by Jahanshah Javid on

When we have a brilllllllliant negotiator like Ahmadinejad, who makes and takes away "offers" on TV, who needs to go and sit down at the negotiating and get things resolved mesle adam?

We're in good hands, kheyre saremoon.


marhoum Kharmagas

if Iran capitulates? (to JJ)

by marhoum Kharmagas on

JJ, all your abdough khiaari analysis aside, will you be happy if Iran capitulates?


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

There is little point

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

in negotiating with a President and a "Government" that is not going to last. Why should the West bother talking to AN. The writing is on the wall. He is not going to be running things so any agreement with them is worthless.


Jaleho

JJ darling azizam,

by Jaleho on

We'll nominate you to accompany the Iranian team to represent us. Just promise to listen to Iranian side a bit too, not just the stuff the western news attribute to "what Iran has said and done!"

As ususal, we'll have to accept we differ in opinion, and wait and see what happens. I hope as usual I get to tell you :'Told ya so!" :-)


Jaleho

Ari, regarding the child who needed treatment

by Jaleho on

and this is aside and I hope the father wouldn't rush and go through difficult decisions to bring the child out of Iran without a complete research first, and just based on the suggestions given on that blog. You said:

"Recently there was a blog on IC asking for cancer treatment info on an Iranian child. When I discussed the case with someone in the know, she was surprized that the child's first surgery seemed to have been performed without accompanying radiation therapy. It occured to me that Iranian doctors may have to ration this type of treatment due to shortage. Maybe not, but soon this will happen if the reactor isn't refueled. "

 

Unfortunately the blog is not there anymore for you to look at, but since the father of the child ( or the writer of blog) had asked for some info on the treatments done at Duke or Boston, I did check with some neurosurgeons there, and their opinion seemed opposite of what your contact or the oncologist in that blog seemed to imply. Specifically this is what I was told by the neurosurgeon there, but I am reluctant to give info that might not be helpful on the comment section of IC. Take a look at the end sentences:

 

"A little hard to speculate. But invasive gliomas of the upper brainstem are notoriously difficult to treat. There are number of vital structures that are stuffed into a small space there, and it is very difficult to cleanly remove a tumor without injuring some of the adjacent structures. However, if the tumor is well encapsulated, it may be possible to remove it. Sounds like the child already has significant neurologic problems. I wonder who did the first surgery. It would be useful to look at the films if possible. For low grade gliomas, there is no other treatment than surgery. the tumor
cells just don't grow fast enough to respond to chemotherapy or radiation."


Jahanshah Javid

What do you expect?

by Jahanshah Javid on

Jaleh, the "luke warm reaction" from the West is to be expected.

Ahmadinejad first comes on TV and makes this surprising announcement that "there's no problem". Of course there's a problem! Two weeks before Iran REJECTED the IAEA offer, so of course the West is going to be skeptical until Iran puts its offer in writing in negotiations with the IAEA.

But no! Our brilliant president instead makes offers on TV and then takes it back two days later. If he's serious about resolving the crisis he should invite the IAEA people to the table immediately to OFFICIALLY agree that "there's no problem" and begin the process of handing over the uranium. That's normal diplomatic practice. Let's see what this "extremely clever negotiator" does next.


Jaleho

Ari, the west damned better deliver!

by Jaleho on

What type of a language is it that you use for people who are actually working for Iran and having things done against the brutality of the bullies who are depriving Iranians from even medical equipment?!

Your policy of kiss everyones ass or be ready to be deprived of food and oxygen and medicine has never gotten any country anywhere but kept them at the mercy of the bully! That's because  the way bullies function, not because the way the victims act, and you perfectly know that yourself, I am sure!

I gave the example of war becauzse it was clear....it didn't matter what Iran did when Saddam thought he can get Khuzestan or Tunbs and Aby Musa in the beginning of the war, Saddam, backed by the west,  would have attacked no matter what Iran did. And, he would have continued to claim Khoramshahr , Ahvaz, Abadan and with the war when he thought he had the power. Only an Iran which managed to fight back was capable of stopping him, as the future events perfectly proved.


Jaleho

JJ, your problem is that

by Jaleho on

You just copy and repeat the news media in the west too much :-)

In fact, I put my last comment to prove to you that you initially DID NOT read Iran's position correctly when you announced it as "nuclear poison", rather Iran's REAL position has been and still is what I wrote in my first comment in answer to your blog :

" Iran's position is very clever. It has offered the west (not a week ago, but few months ago, that it will swap a large amount of its 3% unranium in exchange for 20% which is a win-win offer if the west is honest. It establishes Iran's right to 3.5% enrichment as fait accompli and non-negotiable, it gives it the right to enrich to 20% if the west stalls progress, and it gives the west the comfort they want by Iran in that Iran is really not interested in a weapons program and only in the technology for energy and medical use. If the west wouldn't accept this, then Iran will go ahead doing the 20% enrichment itself."

This has been IRan's position from the beginning. It is the west that changes it position on how Iran is presenting it and as usual tries to make Ahmadinejad like a nut, whereas he 's an extremely clever negotiator, and HE DOES GET IRAN'S RIGHT no matter what kinda dirty game the west plays on Iran!"

Ahmadinejad's new demand from Salehi was a re-affrimation of Iran's position after the west showed a luke warm reaction to his repeated offer of the swap. He practiaclly told them that if they want to waste time and deny Iran the 20% enriched Uranium, Iran will not sit down and wait.


Ari Siletz

Salehi damned well better deliver.

by Ari Siletz on

The Iranian medical reactor in question is running out of fuel and our cancer patients are in dire need of its product. The nuclear medicine this reactor produces (Molybdenum 99) is the bread and butter of nuclear therapy and diagnosis used in 80% of the cases for cancer and other illnesses. It is used 40,000 times a day in the US (here). Allowing for population difference and quality of medical care, this still leaves an enormous number of doses needed in Iran.

If Iran isn't fully capable of producing the 20% uranium needed to run this reactor and the IRI lets politics blow this chance of getting help in keeping it operational, then the regime would have added to its list of crimes.

Import the Molybdenum? Half the stuff decays in 66 hours (mostly gone in a couple of weeks), so Iran needs a local source. Besides there is a serious worldwide shortage of Molybdenum 99 nowadays (here).

Recently there was a blog on IC asking for cancer treatment info on an Iranian child. When I discussed the case with someone in the know, she was surprized that the child's first surgery seemed to have been performed without accompanying radiation therapy. It occured to me that Iranian doctors may have to ration this type of treatment due to shortage. Maybe not, but soon this will happen if the reactor isn't refueled.

So Ahmadinejad better not be playing politics because this ain't at all about standing up to the West. It's a matter urgency for many Iranian patients and their families.


Jahanshah Javid

befarma! eenam diplomacy!

by Jahanshah Javid on

Jaleh, as I mentioned in the blog, diplomacy practiced by the Islamic Republic is very different from what we see in the rest of the world. Nothing should be taken at face value. Positions can change from day to day.

First Ahmadinejad comes and says Iran has "no problem" with the IAEA's latest proposal and uranium would be handed over for enrichment outside Iran. The initial reaction is wow! Iran has turned around and the crisis is about to be resolved. It even dispatches the foreign minister to Berlin to announce to the world that a deal is very close at hand.

Two days later, Ahmadinejad undermines his earlier conciliatory move and does this:

"I had said let us give them [Western powers] two to three months, and if they don't agree, we would start ourselves," Mr Ahmadinejad said in a speech broadcast live. "Now Dr [Ali Akbar] Salehi, start to make the 20% with the centrifuges," the president said, addressing Iran's nuclear chief who was sitting in the audience at a laser technology plant in Tehran.

Which means no one can take this regime's words seriously. The crisis continues, thank you very much.

PS: Your reaction to Ahmadinejad's first announcement was that it was "EXTREMELY CLEVER". Now what do you think about his latest move? Let me guess: "BRILLLLLIANT!"


Anonymouse

Look ma! No hands! I can enrich 20%! What's all the fuss?!

by Anonymouse on

Everything is sacred.


Jaleho

JJ, does this sound like nuclear poison

by Jaleho on

to you still?

//www.presstv.com/detail.aspx?id=118116&secti...

"As Iranian president [Mahmoud Ahmadinejad] announced, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) will start enriching uranium to a level of 20 percent if talks on fuel swap fail to achieve an outcome," AEOI Head Ali Akbar Salehi told the Islamic Republic News Agency on Sunday.

"The enrichment will carry out at Natanz site, since the Fordo facility has yet to become operational," he added.

"Iran offered the Western countries to supply the fuel because the president intended to prepare the ground for them to interact with Iran and to settle the standoff [over they country's nuclear program]," Salehi said.

Earlier on Sunday, President Ahmadinejad tasked Iran's atomic chief with enriching uranium to 20 percent in order to meet the demands of the country's cancer patients.


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

AO

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

that's because we hit her (and the rest of them and / or her multiple other usernames) where it hurts.

You are right but the soft spot is deeper than that. They are losing the propaganda battle. Not long ago they could point to "democratic elections" in Iran and many people would grudgingly agree that there was a sort of democracy in Iran. People specially in Iran still had some respect for Islam and VF. They held a respect for VF and viewed Khomeini with awe. Now even many of the once devout have turned against them. People openly ridicule Islam; insult VF and make fun of AN. Nothing of IRR is sacred anymore. The once untouchable Khomeini is now a subject of scorn.

What makes them even madder is nostalgia for the Shah. People openly wish the Shah had never been removed. The one achievement of the "revolutionaries" is rejected. The new generation is cursing their parents for the "revolution". This pushes the IRR apologists over the top. That is why they scream in impotent rage.

VPK


Anonymous Observer

Maziar

by Anonymous Observer on

that's because we hit her (and the rest of them and / or her multiple other usernames) where it hurts.  Their soft spot is anyone who criticizes their phony "technological advancements".  They go nuts when someone points out the reality of what a backward, 7th century, pedophilia propagating, prisoner raping, modernity challenged regime they are supporting and worshiping.  They go even nuttier when you cut through their BS propaganda and expose it.  The fun thing is that they're too dumb to realize it when people try to rile them up by pushing those button. The result: the out of control rants and rabid belligerence that you see the drunken Jaleho displaying on this site. It's quite entertaining. :-)))


maziar 58

GO PACK MAN !

by maziar 58 on

why the devil supporters (IRR supporters) are so naive that likes to put every body down exept the ones saying allah-o-akbar khom.....?

jaleho is attacking left and right  today.       Maziar


AMIR1973

Islamist rapists and their devoted groupies

by AMIR1973 on

To the murderous Islamist goons and the women who love them, please read about the achievements of the Democratic People's Islamic Republic of Iran under the tutelage of its wise and benevolent Dear Leader. I'll just restate my previous post:


Iran's 2007 ranking of Human Development Index (HDI) in 2007 was 88th in the world (behing Azerbaijan and Thailand); it was 95th in life expectancy (behind Samoa and El Salvador); 94th in adult literacy rate (behind Botswana and Syria); 59th in povert index (behind Sao Tome and Principe and Mongolia); 58th in Probability of not surviving to age 40 (behind Panama and Maldives); 52nd in People not using an improved water source (behind Tunisia and Grenada); 64th in Children underweight for age (behind Swaziland and El Salvador). 

With respect to Comparing Females as % males, it was 165th in Life expectancy at birth (behind Algeria and Iceland); 90th in Adult literacy rate (behind Peru and Saudi Arabia); and 106th in Combined primary, secondary and tertiary gross enrolment ratio (behind Maldives and Mauretania). 


Jaleho

Ari scientific success under your "so-called"

by Jaleho on

theocracy is measured by results. You want to attribute those results to your aunt, be my guest. Like I said, there are doers, and then there those who prefer to sort out who did it, using all kinda psychological mumbo jumbo some people find brilliant. Different people have different measuring sticks to measure success I guess.


Ari Siletz

Jaleho

by Ari Siletz on

You just put your finger on one reason a theocracy can't compete in the 21st century. Very few of Iran's educated can be politically trusted to become part of the technocratic elite. While modern nations can draw top expertise from a large pool of educated citizens, IRI's choice is limited to the few with dissociative identity disorders. The rest of the demand is met by Oksfurd graduates. 

Jaleho

marhoum jan, man naagholaa ya to naagholaa?!

by Jaleho on

" the emperor has very elegant cloths too!"

I get my share of laughter any day when you are around, thanks :-) :-)