Farhad Khateri

Is a war with Iran unavoidable? Who will launch the first attack and when? But, most importantly “What are the benefits and disadvantages of a war with Iran for the rest of the world?”

Obviously, every player in this game would rather benefit than risk any damages. It is however, more complicated than that and no one will be given a free ticket, no matter who starts this war. Everyone will feel the heat, even those who are not directly involved. The US, Israel, the Europeans, and Saudis are aware of the situation and are hoping that they will not be the one who takes the first shot, thus ending up as the first target in retaliation. Each one is trying to get the other to step in the door first. Call it cold humor, but it reminds me of our old Iranian tradition of “Tarof”. Except, if Iranians do this out of “respect” for each other, these guys are doing it out of “fear”. And no one should blame them.

The Iranian military is built out of leftover military equipment, navy and aircraft from the Shah’s time of more than 35 years ago. They also have many Russian Mig fighter jets from the 1992 Gulf War when Iraqi pilots would leave Iraq to land in Iran as refugees to avoid getting shot by the US Air Force. Iran also bought submarines, light guns and boats from Russia, China, Korea and a few other countries. It has developed long range missiles that can reach Israel. But none of these are adding anything significant to Iran’s ability to fight or withstand the advanced technology of the United States or NATO.

What makes Iran magnificent is not its ability in fighting directly, it is that Iran can use many other sorts of punishment to any aggressor. Iran is not another Iraq, Libya or Syria, where Israelis or Americans in the past bombed without any payback. Iran has several options which Mullahs will have no second thoughts in using immediately if they are fired upon.

Israel is more worried and nervous than anyone with Iran’s nuclear program. Ahmadinajad’s has remarked on many occasions how Israel should be wiped off the map. Every day they see Mullahs getting closer to making nuclear bombs. To slowdown the nuclear development, they started their secret activities which ranged from the assassination of Iranian scientists, possible explosion of different facilities in Iran and the corruption of the nuclear computer programs with stock-net virus. But none of these have stopped the Mullahs’ ambition from continuing their plans. Israelis also know that a direct war with Iran is way too dangerous. Iran is not Iraq, where in 1981 Israeli’s airplanes bombed the Iraqi nuclear facilities and Sadam did nothing, as if it never happened. Iran will start launching rockets by Hezbollah and Hamas, and possibly use its long range missiles from Iran and Israel will also face possible suicide missions not much in Israel but anywhere else in the world.

For the last many months the United States has worked hard to build up the tension with Iran in the neighboring countries in the Persian Gulf so they may step up and do something. It is hard to believe that a secondhand car dealer with dementia was sent to negotiate a terror attack on the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the US, and Hillary Clinton admitted to confusion over the possibility that a few people without Iranian government’s involvement may have decided to plan the plot. The other question for anybody is why? There is no reason for Iran to plan such a foolish act at this time. It just does not make sense.

Saudis were never happy with the US, ending Sadam’s days and empowering Shiites in Iraq. They have a very small minority of Shiites of their own who live in the north, close to the Iraqi border and lately they have been causing problems for the Kingdom. Then, we have the Sunni Kingdom of Bahrain controlling the majority Shiites who they claim Iran is helping and provoking to rise against the Kingdom. There is Kuwait, U.A.E., Oman and Qatar, each has their own internal uprising and issues as well as conflicts with Iran, anywhere from religious, economic or geographic disagreement. Ironically, all these neighboring countries are Sunnis and are not happy to see a Shiite country come to power in their neighborhood let alone develop nuclear weapons. They maybe rich by pumping and selling their oil and living a luxurious life, but none of them could alone be a military threat to Iran. They all look up to Saudi Arabia as the big brother. Lately, in an attempt to secure their existence, they ganged up and signed an agreement to protect each other if one of them gets attacked by a foreign force. Who is the foreign force?

Since 1988, according to US intelligence reports, Saudis have bought Chinese missiles installed outside Riyadh and positioned to face Tehran. In April 2011, Saudis started negotiating with China on upgrading these missiles to DF-21 which is capable of delivering a 500kT nuclear warhead over a distance of 1,800 km. Its purchase underlines the Saudi royal family’s determination to have its own nuclear arms and missiles ready for launch in the face of an approaching nuclear armed Iran. In August 2010, the Obama administration notified Congress that it was selling up to $60 billion in advanced weaponry to Saudi Arabia in one of the largest-ever single U.S. arms sales, a deal intended to counter the rising influence of Iran.

US State Department and Pentagon officials told lawmakers that the sales will include 84 new F-15 fighter jets, upgrades to 70 existing Saudi F-15s, 190 helicopters and a wide array of missiles, bombs and delivery systems, as well as accessories such as night-vision goggles and radar warning systems. Americans also encouraged the Saudis to upgrade their Patriot system and to purchase another system similar to the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Defense) sold to the United Arab Emirates.

Then we have the US and Europeans, who are trying hard to stop Iran and to avoid a war. Although they are looking at a bombardment of the nuclear facilities and military bases, they are trying to hide behind each other and NATO, to avoid being identified as the number one target for Iran. They are aware of the immediate damage of losing control over the Middle East safety and security. They are also concerned for the lives of their citizens. The passage of the Strait of Hormuz in Persian Gulf is another problem which could be blocked by Iranians and any transportation of oil from the Gulf States interrupted, resulting in more damage to an already broken economy in Europe and the US.

For the past 35 years Mullahs in Iran have been managing the country creating fear and illusion for the large population of 75 million. There is no family who has not had at least one member arrested, put in jail even for a short time and signed a paper admitting that he or she will never talk, listen, text or even imagine anything against Ayatollah Khamenie or the system. Iranians are fed up with religious rules and the corrupted government of the old Mullahs, controlling every aspect of the country by Islamic mafia of National Guard of Pasdaran. The false election of Ahmadinejad created huge demonstrations of Iranians and ended with mass arrests, torture, execution and assassination of many opponents of the Islamic government. However, just like Khomeini, Ayatollah Khamenei welcomes a war to re-gather the divided people against the common foreign enemy, and fight and kill anyone who dares to protest, marking them as traders. Just the same way Khomeini did. Mullahs really do see war as a blessing.

Americans will not act directly. Just as they did in Libya or now Syria, they will help plan but would like to get NATO and Europe involved. Europeans are trying to dodge the ball, avoiding the violence and ending up in uncertainty of being identified as the main aggressor and becoming the victim of Iranian revenge.

During the Iran-Iraq war, both countries had to pump up their oil and sell it as fast, and as cheap as possible, to afford the weapons and equipments they needed for the senseless war in which more than one million Iranians and Iraqis died. The US provided all the military experts, satellite images and equipments for Sadam, just enough to keep the balance of power between the two countries to keep on fighting. Every Arab nation of the Middle East was helping Sadam, among the major contributors were Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Egypt. US, European and several Asian countries benefited from that war by building their infrastructure, creating jobs and making a strong economy, while the two countries suffered with their economy and loss of human lives.

The last two wars with Afghanistan and Iraq have had disastrous consequences for America and its allies. After nearly a decade not only Iraq and Afghanistan are the major concerns, but also it has changed the situation in Pakistan to become an unstable ally which may be contributing to terrorism while themselves holding nuclear weapons. There were no economic advantages and the US is more unpopular and continues its human casualties. The ideal situation would have been a similar war as the 1980 Iran-Iraq war, in which two neighboring countries in the Persian Gulf are involved, who would do anything from killing their own people to negotiating with the enemies of the enemies to save their own behind. They keep on selling their oil cheap and fast to buy the weapons and keep on fighting. This seems to be the best solution for everyone. It would have even fixed the global economy; creating jobs in the US, Europe and even Asia. It empowers the government of Iran and Saudi Arabia to beat up their people harder without complaints. And everybody “Wins”!!!

Now the question is who is going to give up and step in the door first!