One can not live on subsidies alone!

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One can not live on subsidies alone!
by Esfand Aashena
21-Feb-2011
 

Over the weekend I saw Fareed Zakaria interview Karim Sadjadpour and Hooman Majd.  You can read the transcript here after the Soros interview.  I was also reading Ari's blog entitled Quick glance at protest sweep in Middle East and North Africa and a discussion there about subsidies that shuts people from protesting and keeping people on the side of the regime.  Well I disagree that subsidies are "enough" to keep people happy.

One can not live on subsidies alone and even if that was the case and subsidies were to keep people happy enough to support the regime then there wouldn't be so much disapproval.  I agree with Sadjadpour where he said:

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SADJADPOUR: Well, I think that, you know, it's easier to compel people to kill on behalf of Islam than it is to kill on behalf of retaining Mubarak republic.

The other thing is, I don't think people in Iran necessarily wake up in the morning thinking about democracy and thinking about human rights and thinking about having a secular system. But they do wake up in the morning thinking about the economy. Younger generation thinks about employment opportunities, older generation thinks about economic dignity.

And if -- if this regime -- this Islamic Republic didn't provide people political freedoms, didn't provide people social freedoms, but they delivered on the economy, then I would agree with Hooman that they would have tremendous support.

But when you deny people social freedoms, you deny people of political freedoms and you terribly mismanaged the economy, I'm not sure really what redeeming qualities this regime has.

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So these protests are not about social freedoms alone.  They start with economic hardships which are getting worse by the day and then you have political and religious oppression on top of it.  I believe those who depend on handouts or corruption have a shaky "support" for the regime and would not hesitate to turn against this regime if this fragile string is broken.  The effect of these new "cash subsidies" will be felt more in the next few months when people "spend" their cash and end up going hungry.

The Iranian population is a whopping 80 million and growing and it is getting harder and harder to "control" this population with false hopes and religious sermons. 

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Esfand Aashena

Video of the interview here.

by Esfand Aashena on

Video of the interview here

Everything is sacred


Esfand Aashena

Faramarz jaan regime cronies 4get y there wasnt so much noise b4

by Esfand Aashena on

Of all the Middle Eastern revolts in the past few weeks most of their dictators have been in power for the past 20, 30, 40 years or more.  Why now? Why nothing substantial in the past during their dictator's "career peak"?!

It is also worth noting that in my opinion in addition to the worldwide economic meltdowns, the Green movement was the spark that started some of these new movements. I mentioned a little more in this blog.

Apparently Majd and other cronies want to keep hanging on to the same old beliefs that the people can be crushed with violence like they've done before.  As if violence was able to disperse the people.  Once people get to this point it is very hard to just ignore and shut them down.  They don't even want to admit that violence is being used by the regime! 

There will be changes one way or another and the junk they give away as jahizeh (bride's household necessities) for weddings is not going to cover it anymore!  They don't have any warranty!  

Everything is sacred


Faramarz

زکریا، کریم و هومن

Faramarz


Esfanad Jaan,

I watched the interview yesterday and agree with Sadjadpour about the state of the Iranian economy, the narrow but deep support for Ahmadi among a segment of the population, and the “killing for Islam” vs. “killing for a dictator” concept.

However, Hooman Majd was a complete disappointment. He again went back to the Regime’s line of “over 30 years of US and Israeli threats” that are the reasons for the Regime failures on economic and other fronts; the same “barbarians at the gate” logic that the pro-Regime crowd here uses to justify the actions of the Regime. This guy is related to Khatami and was the translator for Ahmadi a few years back and is struggling to figure out where he stands on the Green issue, so he conveniently falls back on the anti West position!


Esfand Aashena

We'll just have2 agree2 disagree. Economy always rule #1.

by Esfand Aashena on

Everything is sacred


Bavafa

Esfand jaan: Yes, there were...

by Bavafa on

Yes, there were empty stomachs for sure and the gap between rich and poor was growing, yet there were more people coming out of poverty while the rich was getting fitly rich. When you look at the size of revolt and upraising, it does not compare in any way with the size of those with "empty stomachs".

Also, we should not forget that many of the educated ones and some what well to do were also part of the revolt, much like in Egypt. Bazzari, which are hardly the group with empty stomach were the core of that uprising.

Mehrdad


Esfand Aashena

Bavafa jaan there were empty stomachs in 1979 as well.

by Esfand Aashena on

You can't compare the full stomachs of some to the empty stomachs of many more.  During Shah the gap between rich and poor was getting more and more every day and by 1979 there was a huge gap.  

Yes for you and me and our families our stomachs were full and we even went to America to study.  But what about the rest?!

The corruption was rampant and Shah himself gave a speech like Mubarak, Qaddafi and son, Yemen's president, King Abdullah of Jordan and others that he'll make reforms.  He made a King Tut fortune by the time he left.  So much so that ... well  let's not get off topic.  Sometimes it is too little too late.

You can believe the 1979 revolution was for democracy while people had their stomachs full but that wasn't the case.  Democracy was the topping on the cake.  People believed fighting corruption and mismanagement would lead to better opportunities and people would be able to live a better life as a result. 

Everything is sacred


Bavafa

Esfan jaan, Yes and no

by Bavafa on

I agree that better economy and financial situation will elevate some of the problems for the young and it might keep them at bay for the time being but if history is a lesson to us all, 1979 proved that a full stomach is not enough for the young. If any thing, it will remove one of the obstacle from their path for raising up.

Mehrdad


Esfand Aashena

Bavafa jaan I disagree.

by Esfand Aashena on

If there are economic opportunities for the young people they'll be busy going to work, getting married, getting an apartment that they can afford and a little spending money to take the wife and kids for icecream on Fridays!

They'll be upset about the lack of social freedoms but at least they have a life "worth" keeping.  However. as it turns out not only they don't have a job but also no prospect of a dependable job.  They have to make with whatever is available at whatever salary and whatever condition.  Many don't even consider their jobs "jobs"!

They even need a handout to get married look here and here!  Where does it say in Islam that Teddy Bears should be given to newlyweds from beyt-ol-mom (tax payer money :-) as part of the subsidies?!  Now in addition to these "wedding gifts" they also need to get a "loan" to make it final!

Now add to the unemployment and a hopless future an additional set of social repressions and it doesn't get any worse.  I'm willing to bet that if economic opportunities and jobs were available the Iranian youth would not be so disenchanted and protest and risk their lives for mere social freedoms. 

Everything is sacred


Bavafa

I certainly agree that the

by Bavafa on

I certainly agree that the economic condition has a huge impact in people's motivation to raise up. I also believe that the social freedom means more to the young then food.

Mehrdad