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Spiraling Out of Control
12-Oct-2011
With news of an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, U.S.-Iran relations have reached a new low. If the allegations are true, this deplorable act should be strongly condemned. To that end, the Beltway is already buzzing with calls for a "robust response" that will "send a strong message to Iran." But how?
As policymakers, pundits and the American people process this alleged bombshell, it is important to remember that nations have often rushed into conflicts (see: Iraq circa 2003), and we would be wise to let the investigation run its course and gather all the facts.
Indeed, the Justice Department's accusations have been met with skepticism by some experts. Robert Baer, a former CIA case officer in the Middle East,said that the "Quds Force has never been this sloppy, using untested proxies, contracting with Mexican drug cartels, sending money through New York bank accounts, and putting its agents on U.S. soil where they risk being caught... The Quds Force is simply better than this." Max Fisher at the Atlantic questions what Iran possibly could get out of the terror plot. And Muhammad Sahimi at Tehran Bureau raises important questions about why a Quds force operative could enter U.S. soil in the first place.
There are still many details about the case that we don't know, but this crucial point is already on theverge of irrelevance. In Washington, allowing for time to collect all the facts rarely happens. And when it comes to politically toxic issues like Iran, it almost certainly will not happen.
By sending the Attorney General of the United States, Eric Holder, to the podium to drop cataclysmic allegations, the stage has already been set. And you don't send the Attorney General there unless you have irrefutable evidence (which was not presented at the press conference), or if you seek to leverage this as fodder for further escalation.
Despite talking a good game, neither Washington nor Tehran looks ready, willing or able to pursue sustained diplomacy. After the abandonment of diplomacy in late 2009, the Obama administration has returned to a reflexive containment policy that has the domestic political benefit of portraying the Obama White House as tough, while still falling a step short of an actual confrontation.
But containment with Iran is not a stable policy. On the contrary, it's a policy that keeps both sides perpetually teetering on the verge of war. Containment with the Soviet Union proved to be stable for two key reasons. First, because even at the height of the Cold War, Washington and Moscow engaged in direct diplomacy -- that is,effective de-escalatory mechanisms were in place. The two countries could effectively communicate with each other and sort out misunderstandings before they escalated into military conflict.
Second, it was stable because there was ample awareness on both sides that a direct confrontation between the two super powers would lead to the end of mankind. This created a natural resistance against uncontrollable escalation.
Neither of these two factors is present in the U.S.-Iran relationship. There is no direct communication between the two sides (both recently ignored or rejected each other's proposals for direct communication). And their domestic political landscapes do not put a premium on restraint; rather, strong domestic constituencies in Washington and Tehran consistently push for escalation.
Simply put, U.S.-Iran tensions have long been a powder keg, overflowing with nuclear programs, human rights abuses, Stuxnet and secret assassinations. And the alleged terror plot against the Saudi Ambassador shows how easily a single incident can spark a wider conflict. Without serious efforts to defuse a crisis that is steadily spiraling out of control, we are on the precipice of a major war in the region.
This is why a containment policy can turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Short of a government collapse in Tehran or strategic shift in Washington -- both unlikely in the short tomedium term -- containment has created an environment in which adversaries repeatedly provoke one another, without having the ability to reverse any escalation.
The Obama administration must avoid falling further into this trap -- particularly if there are Iranian hardliners trying to bait the U.S. into a conflict.
In 2008, a war with Iran was considered devastating to U.S. interests. This outcome is no less disastrous today for an America with 9% unemployment, and still on the brink of economic catastrophe.
Hawks in Washington will use these new allegations to support their preconceived notions on why defusing the Iran crisis cannot be done -- the timing isn't right; we need to garner more leverage by escalating the pressure; this regime needs enmity with America for its survival and so forth. Ironically, their counterparts in Tehran will echo similar sentiments.
This is what we call a real "come to Jesus" moment -- some hard decisions on war and peace need to be made, in Washington and Tehran. Unfortunately, given the history and politics involved, all signs are pointing in the wrong direction. It is often forgotten that in crises like this, it takes greater courage to stand for restraint and de-escalation than to opt for war and confrontation.
First publish in HuffingtonPost.com.
AUTHORS
Reza Marashi joined NIAC in 2010 as the organization’s first Research Director. He came to NIAC after four years in the Office of Iranian Affairs at the U.S. Department of State.
Trita Parsi is President of the National Iranian American Council and author of A Single Roll of the Dice – Obama’s Diplomacy with Iran (Yale University Press, 2012).
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Omid Parsi:
by G. Rahmanian on Wed Oct 12, 2011 10:55 PM PDTVery well put. Fine arguments, indeed!
Great article
by Soosan Khanoom on Wed Oct 12, 2011 09:56 PM PDT" It is often forgotten that in crises like this, it takes greater courage to stand for restraint and de-escalation than to opt for war and confrontation. "
Thanks for posting this .....
A question to Trita Parsi, and also those objecting to him
by aynak on Wed Oct 12, 2011 09:54 PM PDTTrita Parsi says:
If the allegations are true, this deplorable act should be strongly
condemned. To that end, the Beltway is already buzzing with calls for a
"robust response" that will "send a strong message to Iran." But how?
There are 2 possibilities here. a)Islamic regime was planning to do as the state department alleges, or b) it is a fabrication.
If this is true, Trita Parsi's write up fails to address what the response should be? If it is a fabrication, again Trita Parsi falls short on how that should be dealt with?
On the other hand, people who are opposing Tritia Parsi's write up, are doing no better (actually doing worse): First they have assumed these to be correct charges, without enough information to validate, but offer no solution that I could see, but have issue with "Strong condemnation" phrase Trita Parsi has used. If this is all true, what do you guys propose should be done? Please spell out.
On the other hand, what if this turns to be not true?
At this point, this issue is so bizzare that various conspiracy theories have brewed.
Here are a few :
--Could it be that state department have gotten this information from one faction within Islamic regime and try this to boot another faction? (orignial state department statement was explicit in stating a "faction" within Iranian government)
--With all the spot light on ISI (Pakistan Inelligence) and their cooperation with Taleban, could they have used this as a distraction?
--U.S has been hinting at the inability of Mexican police to combat the "War on Drug", could the link to international terrorism open a new front?
--There were hints that this plot was done by the same group that did the Argentina bombing (i.e to link this to that case)
--Could Saudi's be creating this as a way to preserve their own backward government, and bring themselves close to U.S in light of Arab uprising and the threat they may feel from that?
--Could Islamic regime have done this? Of course, they are capable of doing any type of crime, but why this individual, and why in U.S and not back in Saudi Arabia or some place else?
As you can see, even with my litmited imagination, there are many possibilities. Let's wait and see, would be my suggestion.
omid
by shushtari on Wed Oct 12, 2011 09:04 PM PDTI agree with you 100%....
the list of IRR barabaric crimes against americans, iranians, kurds, etc is indeed very long- in fact, they start in the 70's with cinema rex- where they burned 420 innocent men, women, and children alive to try to blame in on savaK!.....god knows how many of the 'drug traffickers' that are hanged weekly from cranes in iran are really dissidents!!!!
as you said, the akhoonds have a department of clowns who sit down and orchestrate such crimes- I often imagine, what goes through the head of a assassin when they are sitting on a plane on their way to kill an innocent person- like they did to shahriar shafiq, gen oveissi, farrokhzad, etc.?
and on top of everything, they have mastered the art of lying- they deny everything and anything that is blamed on them.....god forbid if they admit to indeed being a group of bloodthirsty thieves who don't respect anything other than a bunker buster bomb.
check....
by maziar 58 on Wed Oct 12, 2011 08:57 PM PDTmate......
I hope the west or whomever planted the entrampment on that greedy car dealer will not have to put the Iranians to face the consequence of such stupidity.
P.s for as much every body knows about the NIAC's place in D.C.
and their DOKKAN
It's not their place to protect or defend some one found GUILTY of such act .
Maziar
Faramarz Jaan: As an Iranian-American...
by Bavafa on Wed Oct 12, 2011 08:54 PM PDTAnd as a cautious NIAC supporter, my number one priority is to prevent a war between these two nations, unless I have to define the fine print here (i.e. mass killing of civilians, genocide or things of that nature) so in essence our dear Divaneh is correct in saying that NIAC is doing its job as vast majority of its members and supporters have defined preventing a war as number one priority.
Does that make me and IRI supporter? If a few people here think so, then so be it?
However, my anti-war stands is not solely based on my interest and love for the Iranian people, but also for my love and care for this nation that I call home now, yet I [miss] trust the American government just as much as I [miss] trust the IRI when it comes to the care for the people, specially Iranian people.
And here is what I say to those NIACer as I have said before and have come to believe so…
There are folks that have made up their mind about NIAC and no amount of reason, evidence or information is going to change their mind.
This article can be a good example of that. NIAC has clearly condemn this act, in principal yet we don’t like it because it does not our 100% way of condemnation OR other wishes. So instead of picking that and building upon it, we put it down, condemn it and try to destroy it.
It is a sad story for us as Iranian-Americans.
'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory
Mehrdad
Hard To Believe ...
by Omid Parsi on Wed Oct 12, 2011 08:36 PM PDT... But anyone who thinks the IRI and its Quds Force is somehow above the suggested allegations and incapable of such stupidity must have buried his head in the sand... This is exactly the kind of "policy-making" the IRI has been engaged in since its inception. Committing acts of terror at home and overseas is their default option to achieve any "objective". This is a regime that could not tolerate Fereydoon Farrokhzaad, show-host of all people, entertaining a handful of bitter expats, in Frankfort of all places!!! Just look at the caliber of IRI's "president"... Arguably the smartest of the bunch who are in charge in IRI, and yet as dumb a thug as anyone has seen... And still on his last leg for not bring dumb enough to keep bending over for the retarded "Supreme Leader"!! The regime's acts of terror in Berlin against Kurdish leaders, In France against Nationalist figures, and in Buenos Aires against Jewish interests are not all fabrications. The people who plot this kind of "intrigue" have full-time jobs and have to come up with new "projects" to justify their pay. And nothing is too dumb or outrageous for them given where they come from and the kind of "career path" they're on... I know it's hard to admit that anyone of us Iranians has any DNA in common with these clown-monsters, but we can no longer afford to deny the facts... No more Roo-Dar-Veisty!!
So what is to be done?! Well, I hate to say it, but looks like "swift regime change", whatever it takes, is the only viable option... And for once people, let's admit that given the trajectory that the country is on, any collateral damage is a noble sacrifice...
sadly,this is what our great country
by shushtari on Wed Oct 12, 2011 07:37 PM PDThas come to be known for these days- exporting terrorism and assassinations on foreign land-
instead of exporting flat screen tvs and high end cars, like the south koreans, the mullahs are lining their fat pockets, and sending the rest of the money to terrorists and drug dealers to do their dirty work.
does anyone remember the pahlavis doing such things????
Faramarz
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Wed Oct 12, 2011 07:20 PM PDTSo here is my question to my dear NIACie friends, “given this incident and the recent history of hostility towards immigrant groups from the Middle East, what should be the number one priority of an organization that claims to represent the Iranian-Americans in the great US of A?
Unfortunately you have a point. Yes as an Iranian American organization they should be out to protect our civil rights. Besides I don't think anything they do will make any difference regarding US retaliation. If USA wants to hit Hizoblah Regime it will NIAC or not. Therefore the most fruitful effort would be to protect our civil rights. That is both doable and their mission.
An Honest Question for My NIACie Friends
by Faramarz on Wed Oct 12, 2011 05:57 PM PDTYesterday when the news of an alleged plot by an Iranian-American to bomb and kill a bunch of people in DC broke out, my first thought was, “here we go again, another hostage crisis, another Iranian bashing, another what we have done to deserve this one.”
I turned the TV on and started watching and trying to determine the scale of this disaster and what it would mean to the Iranian-American families, their high school kids and younger brothers and sisters, or those who are trying to get a job and realize their American dreams.
As you know, we went through this drill back in the 80’s and most of us have a few scars to show for it.
So you would think that an organization like NIAC that has the well-being of Iranian-Americans as its number one priority would be all over this incidents, saying things like “this was an isolated event and has nothing to do with the Iranian-American community, and we are patriotic Americans and an integral part of the fabric of this society” and all the good stuff that you expect would from a community advocacy group.
Instead, we get this proclamation by Trita and the other guy which basically is more concerned about an action or retaliation on the Regime than anything else, and there is not a single mention of us, the Iranian-American community.
So here is my question to my dear NIACie friends, “given this incident and the recent history of hostility towards immigrant groups from the Middle East, what should be the number one priority of an organization that claims to represent the Iranian-Americans in the great US of A?
Pendar
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Wed Oct 12, 2011 04:50 PM PDTThe only way to find the truth in this matter is through an independent, international body outside the US.
Good luck! If USA decides to attack anyone (except the big nuclear powers) it will do it. Nothing you or I or all of IC or NIAC or Amnesty does will make a difference. It takes the president to pick up the phone and call a general.
That is the stupidity of picking on a power bigger than yourself. It does not matter who is "right or wrong". Whether this particular episode is true Hizbolahi Regime has picked a fight with USA. The VF had a chance to let Mousavi win. Make peace with Obama; get the sanctions lifted. But he chose otherwise and may well pay for it. That is the problem with dictatorships. You get a nut for a dictator and people pay for it. If people really got to vote they would have voted to mend fences with USA long past.
NIAC is doing its job
by divaneh on Wed Oct 12, 2011 04:46 PM PDTIt is defending the Iranian regime as it has always done. You never see them writing an article about the human rights abuses in Iran, but they quickly get to action every time that IRI needs help.
This event will not result in war but can take us a step closer to that eventuality. Preventing a war on Iran is the only subject on which NIAC gets my vote. That however can be better achieved by being an honest broker rather than a blind supporter.
The Raw-bull of the Day: Rawbull101211
by Tavana on Wed Oct 12, 2011 04:44 PM PDT"A bunch of muslims are gang-raping a woman and you arrive on the scene. If you are a kind and caring man who also carries, then you take out your firearm and take care of those muslims. Of course you are being violent, but your violence is justified as you are rescuing a woman who is being violated by a bunch of muslim men."
Talking about biased/hatred in writing!
"One should NEVER compare [the] actions taken by the US with those taken by the barbaric nation of Iran, unless one is a democrat!"
More of the racist remarks! This time toward all of us though if we are still Iranians! And just how do we call the past 11 years of the US actions in Afghanistan, Iraq & Pakistan??
Of plots...
by پندارنیک on Wed Oct 12, 2011 04:30 PM PDTWe all know that the alleged assassination scenario is totally flawed........The American Justice Department that broke the story is the same department that orchestrated the massacre at the Davidian compound, among other gross acts of injustice........and is therefore without an iota of credibility....
The only way to find the truth in this matter is through an independent, international body outside the US.
VPK jaan, Thanks! You are an exception though!
by Oon Yaroo on Wed Oct 12, 2011 04:21 PM PDTI mean when I make references to NIAC!
Dear Oon Yaroo
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Wed Oct 12, 2011 04:14 PM PDTPlease read my post below yours. The real story I am worried about is the 32K basiji goons in Tehran.
NIACies can't get any more pathetic than this!?
by Oon Yaroo on Wed Oct 12, 2011 04:10 PM PDTSo, by the 3rd paragraph," ...Quds Forces has never been this sloppy...," the authors imply that Quds (e.g., IRR) is a lot more sophisticated than that to be caught re-handed!
Do the authors also imply or have the knowledge of any specifics where the Quds Forces have perpetrated other criminal activities but went undetected under the US intelligence agencies/law enforcement radar because of their "sophistication!" The statement made by these authors certainly implies that!
This diatribe by these two clowns is tantamount to self-indictment of the criminal IRR and its killing machinery and apparatus!
Even Ray Takeyh ,Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, who is a softy when it comes to the Green Movement, was saying on NPR this morning that this is most likely an IRR initiated attempt to extend its comfort zone of killing and terror to this continent!
Got to say
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Wed Oct 12, 2011 04:06 PM PDTI was not really impressed with the NIAC article. The truth is that I have spoken in praise of NIAC when I thought it merited it. This article sounds too defensive. Well of course peace is better than war.
But if Hizbollah Regime really did try to kill this man then it is a big deal. Add to it the 32,000 basiji show in Tehran. Khamenei is getting out of control. While there is some doubt on the Saudi Ambassador attempt there is none on the basiji. There was a giant show of force in Tehran. It was far more offensive to me. Because it was directed against Iranian people. I always said if Khamenei starts using basiji wholesale against people all bets are off. That is what he is doing.
Here is a link thanks to Vildermose:
//www.rferl.org/content/basij_militia_flexes_...
Raoul1955: I agree with you…
by Bavafa on Wed Oct 12, 2011 04:02 PM PDTHad this be a legal document that needed all the fine prints, it would have included much of what you said and more including when one defend his/her home land against occupation by foreign forces. Or one can say that those cases are not really an act of violence but merely an act of self defense.
But in the context of this alleged plot or other assassination that has been carried out by IRI, Israel, US and many other nations including the call to put a military junta to cleaning what is left from Iran which will undoubtedly include many innocent civilans, I believe, an objective person will condemn it all
'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory
Mehrdad
Bavafa:
by Raoul1955 on Wed Oct 12, 2011 03:20 PM PDTYou write: 'An objective person would condemn ALL acts of violence regardless of who is behind it.'
Please take your time and think about the above statement as it is just a typical liberal mantra. Here is a simple [hypothetical] example why some violence is not only justified, but actually expected from kind and caring individuals:
A bunch of muslims are gang-raping a woman and you arrive on the scene. If you are a kind and caring man who also carries, then you take out your firearm and take care of those muslims. Of course you are being violent, but your violence is justified as you are rescuing a woman who is being violated by a bunch of muslim men.
I trust that if you try to think objectively that you can come up with many reasons why in many occasions violence is actually both logical and also the honorable way of handling savages.
One should NEVER compare [the] actions taken by the US with those taken by the barbaric nation of Iran, unless one is a democrat!
this pathetic stooge,
by shushtari on Wed Oct 12, 2011 02:54 PM PDTPARSI, is something else.....
here we are, with a ton of evidence that the mullahs were gonna kill scores of american right in the capitol, and this idiot is trying to convince everyone that yet again, there is a misunderstanding......
what is it this time??? the akhoonds were just testing the FBI??! give me a break-----as the crimes of the akhoonds stack up, this moron and the rest of his 'sandis khor' lobbyists look even more foolish.
god help their souls when the akhoonds finally fall- which seems to be sooner and sooner- hooray!
Terrorist mouth piece
by afshinazad on Wed Oct 12, 2011 01:44 PM PDTWhat the hell, TRITA is jumping before the terrorist buddies do.At all cost trita is protecting his interest.
and I say to Roul: There have been other groups ...
by Bavafa on Wed Oct 12, 2011 02:14 PM PDTWith this type of mind set (i.e. Taliban). And they have been condemned "strongly, vigorously, powerfully, strenuously, energetically, and actively condemned!"
Regarding the article itself, I find it to be well argued and balanced with the little information available. Of course there are people that due to their hatred or other reason will be the judge and jury when it comes to negative news from Iran, yet never seem to be present or mind when the same act gets carried out against Iranians (i.e. the assassination of Iranian scientist or the stuxnet virus)
The reality of the matter is that these two regime (IRI and the US) have been in a cold war for over 30 years and both have had their own share of dirty deeds. An objective person would condemn ALL acts of violence regardless of who is behind it.
But objectivity is one of those rare thing, at least here on IC.
'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory
Mehrdad
Finally, a Strong Statement from NIAC!
by Faramarz on Wed Oct 12, 2011 11:47 AM PDTI am impressed!
“If the allegations are true, this deplorable act should be strongly condemned!”
Yeh, there you go Trita and the other dude! Now we are talking tough! How about "strongly and vigorously condemned!"
Ok, Ok, I got it. How about, "strongly, vigorously, powerfully, strenuously, energetically, and actively condemned!"
Now, that will put the fear of god in their hearts and the Regime will rush over here and apologize and then we can have a Grand Bargain and the red phone and the other good stuff!
For those of us who lived through the hostage crisis here, this double-talk by these characters only alienates the Iranian-American community in the eyes of the rest of America.
Trust me Trita, you are not serving us man.
Reza et. al.
by Raoul1955 on Wed Oct 12, 2011 01:23 PM PDTYou state: 'It takes greater courage to stand for restraint than to opt for war'
Raoul's position: It takes a high level of stupidity and cowardice not to [totally] destroy a persistent enemy who has repeatedly proclaimed its desire to destroy you.
Usually a number of factors play into one's [or one nation's] decision to resort to violence. Consider the following scenario:
A bunch of muslims are running towards you yelling 'allah-akbar.' If you are slightly informed and somewhat courageous, you will pull out your gun and begin shooting at those muslims with the [full] intention of killing every one of them. Now apply that simple rule to a nation. It is about time to take care of the Iranian problems for good, and hopefully this time around the world powers will put a military junta in charge of cleaning what is left from Iran, instead of a liberal and caring king!
The Crand Bargain duo
by Fred on Wed Oct 12, 2011 10:40 AM PDTAfter stating:
“If the allegations are true, this deplorable act should be strongly condemned”, the lifetime president of the NIAC lobby and his newest employee, go into lets make a deal with the Islamist Rapist Republic.
Given the NIAC lobby is against real sanctions like banking and oil, it would be good to know what on earth IRR has to do to deserve something more than “strong condemnation” from the NIAC lobby.