A Set Up?

Or was Khamenei reckless?

Share/Save/Bookmark

A Set Up?
by Meir Javedanfar
14-Oct-2011
 

On Tuesday, the US Justice Department accused ‘agents of the Iranian government of being involved in a plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States, with help from a purported member of a Mexican drug cartel.’

This warning came as ABC News, citing an unnamed official, reported that the plot also included ‘plans to bomb the Israeli Embassy in Washington, as well as those belonging to Saudi Arabia and Israel in Buenos Aires, Argentina.’

The success of the US case against Iran will clearly depend on the quality of the evidence that the US government has at its disposal. Certainly, if this evidence is found wonting, and the case against the two suspects being held — an Iranian American and an Iranian Quds Force officer — is thrown out, it would be a major blow to the credibility of US law enforcement agencies as well as the US government.

Looking ahead, what if the US government should be able to prove its case, including allegations of a plan to hit the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires? This would undoubtedly show the Iranian leadership's continued commitment to a tried and tested strategy. After all, Iran has been accused of being behind the 1992 suicide attack against Israel's embassy in Buenos Aires, which killed 29 people and injured 242. Meanwhile, Interpol has issued arrest warrants against Iranian officials over their alleged involvement in the AMIA bombing, which took place in Buenos Aires in 1994.

But concrete evidence that Iran was planning to strike in Washington as claimed would mark the opening of a whole new chapter in Iran’s dealings with the United States and Saudi Arabia.

For a start, it could mean that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the ultimate authority for permitting attacks of this nature, is willing to go further than simply hurting US and Saudi interests through proxies in Iraq and Lebanon. This would set a new precedent, as Iran previously shied from launching operations against US and Saudi interests on their own soil.

Yet there’s another, somewhat intriguing possibility. Could elements within the Iranian government or security establishment have planned this attack, without Khamenei's knowledge in order to hurt him and his regime? On the surface, at least, this seems unlikely. However, details of the US claims certainly suggest that the idea isn’t completely without merit. Why? Because according to the Justice Department, Arabisar, who the US government has accused of being connected to the Iranian government, is supposed to have wired $100,000 to the US undercover agent whom he thought would carry out the hit against the Saudi Ambassador.

But this would be extremely sloppy and unprofessional work by a government that has, over the years, become adept at hiding its tracks. Why would Khamenei make himself and his regime so vulnerable by wiring money directly? Why wouldn't Iranian security officials use third parties operating through third countries?

As crazy as the Iranian regime can sound through its rhetoric, when it comes to protecting its interests, it‘s essentially rational and careful. Iran knows that it can’t afford a war against the United States. It also knows that further deterioration could mean more sanctions and further isolation, both of which would hurt the regime’s ability to sustain itself at home. This is more important to Khamenei's interests right now than the elimination of the Saudi Ambassador in Washington.

The fact is that looking at Khamenei's background, such a reckless initiative as the one he is accused of is almost too radical, the costs too high for his regime. This is why it seems at least plausible that elements within the Iranian regime could have orchestrated this to hurt him, with the goal of eventually pushing him out of power.

The Iranian regime is already fractured, and the business interests of many officials are being undermined by Khamenei's nuclear policies. Meanwhile, the children of former officials such as Intelligence Minister Ali Younesi, are reportedly in jail because of their opposition to the regime. Anyone who wants to hurt Khamenei from within would have plenty of reason to undertake such an initiative, especially as it would ultimately tar the supreme leader.

The Iranian government has been a sponsor of terrorism for many years. But this claim is truly extraordinary. If true, Khamenei has either been extremely reckless, or is being set up by opposing elements within his regime. Time, and the evidence presented in court, will help us get close to the answer.

First published in the-diplomat.com.

AUTHOR
Meir Javedanfar is an Iranian - Israeli Middle East analyst and the co-author of 'The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and The State of Iran'. He runs the Middle East Economic and Political Analysis Company (meepas) from its offices in Tel Aviv, Israel.

Share/Save/Bookmark

Recently by Meir JavedanfarCommentsDate
Is Rafsanjani Up To Something?
9
Sep 25, 2012
The Price of Chicken
3
Aug 08, 2012
Analysis of Iran - IAEA Agreement
2
May 22, 2012
more from Meir Javedanfar
 
mirza

Dear VPK

by mirza on

When we humans do anything in this world -- when, for example, we carry out a scientific experiment, paint a picture, compose a piece of music, build a bridge, or act politically -- in short, when we do anything at all, we need specific, objective information in order to take specific and concrete actions, the end-result of which is the originally intended painting, sonata, bridge, etc. It is not enough to know something in general. For example, it is not enough to know in general that gravity exists. It is necessary to know what exact force it exerts on bodies, depending on the mass of the body, and how it exerts that force (in which direction, etc.). For an engineer to build a good mountain road, for example, or a working bridge, they need that kind of specific, detailed information, not just that some kind of gravitational field exists.

So, to get to your rhetorical question (and pardon me for imposing on your implied answers), what Da'ie has done for the opposition movement to the regime is along those lines. You ask: "What did Daie tell us that we didn't already know? That IRI is corrupt and has a network outside. I knew that and it was proven by murders of so many Iranians." But, the thing you say you knew already, that piece of knowledge, is of the general type. You can't do much with it.

However, when Daie explains to us the exact connections, say, between Trita Parsi and Bob Ney and oil companies (the indicted Bob Ney who pleaded guilty to having had corrupt relations with Jack Abramoff, the Republican lobbyist), and also when, through Daie's research, we see the array of supposedly Iranian-American organizations connected to certain oil interests, etc., who constantly carry water for the Islamic regime back home, now we have concrete information based on which we can take concrete actions to counteract the regime's plans to buy itself face value in the U.S. Congress for example. If, that is, you want to take any actions.

As for another source that sheds some light on how the rifts within the regime may have led to the terror plot, here is another source, by a writer whose 'background' may be more to your liking:

//www.pezhvakeiran.com/page1.php?id=36370

(Incidentally, in your opinion, what part of Daie's 'background' invalidates all that he may have to say politically?)

Peace!


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

What did

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

Dai tell us that we did not already know? That IRI is corrupt and has a network out side. I knew that already and it was proven by murders of so many Iranians. I don't need someone of his background to tell me what I already know.

Why not get someone with a legitimate background and credibility to speak. Is it that hard to find an honorable person. Do we even need to be told what is going on. Don't we already know it. 


Bavafa

Dear Maziar: My dudos to your message

by Bavafa on

Agreed completely and thanks

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad


mirza

Dear VPK

by mirza on

Regardless of what the name 'Da'ie' may mean to YOU, lots of us are very thankful to him for his contributions to our understanding of how the rapist regime's lobbying-organizational networks function outside Iran, and especially in the U.S. 

I personally may not agree with his particular analyses all the time, but his information is always something worth considering. If you really take the word of a Mexican drug dealer over that of Da'ie (when it comes to matters to do with the politics of our country), then maybe your evaluative criteria need some re-evaluating. 

Peace!  


maziar 58

RED

by maziar 58 on

All the blames are sharpening the darn war drums in middleast this time on the right spot where it originated from in 1978-79

yes it seems Iran was the target then for the green belt and now again new target for black belt .

set up or not failed plot or not..........

United we stand divided we fall (let barrow the phrase and use it for us now).

Akhoond has to go but not this way.

 Maziar


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Dear Guive

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

Please do not use logic and rationality around here. You will be not too popular. The party line is "they did it". I keep telling people IRI is already guilty of plenty of other crimes like hanging innocent victims. But that does not ring.

Killing Iranians somehow does not have the "umph" that Saudi would. Hence three hikers or one possible Saudi matter more than a thousand Iranians. Welcome to the world of "we don't matter". Yes overlook the obvious crimes and dig for the maybe.


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Dear Mirza

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

To me Hassan Dai means don't bother to read any more! This does not mean Khamenei was not behind it . But just that I don't give any value to what Dai says. I take the word of the Mexican dealer over Dai any time! 


mirza

بخوانید و خود قضاوت کنید

mirza


به نظر میرسد که چنددستگی در دولت این بار کار دستشون داده 

پیامد های توطئه بمب گذاری در واشنگتن

//www.pezhvakeiran.com/page1.php?id=36261


Guive Mirfendereski

To what end, for whose benefit?

by Guive Mirfendereski on

I ask myself, “ a qui profite le crime?” Who benefits from the crime? The purpose of this inquiry in criminal law is to isolate the pool of potential criminals according to motive. I rule out IRI that has already a lousy reputation to begin with, not needed additional headaches. Nor does IRI hardly need to give the West more reasons to further tighten the screws on it. Who is served by this plot and its disclosure? Well, there is the United States, in order to find additional reason to put greater screws to the IRI. There is Isreal, which relishes the longstanding thought of having the U.S. attack Iran for some reason or another. And there are IRI’s Iranian opponents who routinely “disclose” matters to embarrass the IRI. Yeah, also, to make it all very credible, the orchestrators of this plot also threw in Buenos Aires – to bomb an Israeli/Jewish establishment there for a second time – and drag Saudi Arabia into the plot on the basis of preexisting antipathy between the two in order to make the plot more plausible. If this were to take out Saudi diplomats, one would think that some African country with less security would be a better venue, no? I keep remembering the blame that was heaped on IRI for the bombing of the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia – it turned out not to be the work of IRI. I keep remembering the Iran Contra Scandal, which was orchestrated not be the IRI but by the “rogue” elements of the U.S. government working out of the White House, in connection with Israel, which in turned supplied IRI with weapons as part of the scheme. The assassination of state “enemies” allegedly by Israel in one of the Emirates just recently and some years back in a Jordanian hospital gives me pause – not because that kind of behavior is justified, but because going rogue makes rogues of others. To paraphrase Robert Bolt, And when all the trees are felled, and the land is rendered flat, and high winds begin to blow, and the devil turns on you, where would you hide then. As koon-e hameyeshan goyi ast (there is skid marks in all their under-wear), it is next to impossible to say by the evidence thus far (an affidavit of a U.S. agent) which asshole laid this turd of a plot.


maziar 58

.......

by maziar 58 on

it sure looks like a plot; a nov 2011 to nov 2012 Ashura show.

well planned and orchesterated ;But we'll have to wait and see

is the guy going to admit and plead guilty ?

The record of wire transfer should be easy to track all....

sender and recievers are the one to ansewer.

Is the whole thing is about to sell more military and logistic junk to the Arabs or have them to start a war in that region away from tel aviv?

Maziar


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Nader

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

If Seyed did this without approval from others he may be the one who is gone.


Nader Vanaki

Seyed Ali's Micromanagement Style

by Nader Vanaki on

This time he did not go through the right ranks to get the job done.  In a few months you will hear of sardars and خرلشگر getting killed in automotive accidents.


Faramarz

Cash for Clunker Plot!

by Faramarz on

The Regime doesn't have any operatives in the US so they have to settle with the cheap, off-shore workforce and used-car salesmen whose get-away cars only get them out of the lot!

Iranians don't go to mosques every Friday to hear fiery sermons from some lunatic. But there is always a lone wolf like this guy or the one who ran his SUV into the students on campus in North Carolina back in 2006 (Mohammad Reza Taheri-azar).


KB

Far too many questions

by KB on

Ari makes a good point but as I am sure you have heard, some $3.5 Billion
went missing from various banks and no one has figured out how that
happened. The money for this plot did not come from inside Iran so this really could
be any body's work. 

But there are other questions:

Why the Saudi diplomat?

Why that venue?

And why would they sub this work out to the Mexicans? IRI has always
used its affiliates, they have agents all over the world for this kind of
work. Besides its well known that the FBI is constantly trying to infiltrate the gangs (and the conspiracy theorist believe that the CIA is hand in
glove with the drug dealers to fund its ops) which makes one wonder, if I
have heard of this have the IRI agents not?

 

 


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Dear Ari

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

Who's driving the getaway car?

Well unless Khamenei is behind the whole thing. He is old; senile and cranky. Most likely person to be behind the plot if it is real. If you examine the history of dictators this happens a lot. They get older crazier and more likely to do the dumbest possible thing.


Bavafa

A very plausible scenario….

by Bavafa on

One that  has the most traction using logic but a part of the puzzle (Ari’s point) remains to be answered logically. 

Could the crazies within IRI forces be selling this plot to the low ranking members to be carried out with as a way to become a martyrs.

If this is to be the case, IRI could defang this very quickly by finding the forces behind it and punish them severely.

All Remains to be seen. 

 

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad


Ari Siletz

Who's driving the getaway car?

by Ari Siletz on

This "internal sabotage" plot needs one more leg to stand up to scrutiny.  It needs an explanation as to how  the saboteurs were expecting to get away with it. The Khamenei faction--dominant in Iran--could easily track down who's behind this would-be operation and punish them.