They can work

In this case, they are displacing military action against Iran

Balatarin
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They can work
by Mehrdad Emadi
05-Jul-2010
 

With the most recent round of UN-approved sanctions and seemingly more restrictive additional sanctions introduced by the European Union, Canada, Japan and Australia, there appears to be renewed interest in the effectiveness of sanctions in altering the behaviour of the Islamic Republic of Iran concerning the atomic energy programme of the regime and its real purpose. In this note, I try to explore some of the less often discussed but I hope not less appreciated possible effects of sanctions. 
 
Stated expected effects, sanctions will raise the cost of developing industrial capacity as development of the energy sector in Iran.  Given that 80% of government’s budget and 70 percent of investment in industrial projects come from oil revenues which are under the monopoly of government and now significantly transferred in management to Islamic Guards, Sepah, sanctions will result in a fall in the revenue of government reducing its financial capability to pursue and complete its nuclear energy programme which is suspect of having the capacity to develop military potential for weaponization.  This line of analysis advocates that in light of a very ambitious long range missile programme which already has the assumed capability of delivering a load, be it very small in weight, to most of southern Europe, world community, in the interest of collective security should use sanctions to cause a substantial reduction in the income earning of the present leaders and their security force Sepah which in recent years has expanded its presence in the oil, gas and almost all layers of the economy.  Targeting of the four industries; energy, banking, transport and insurance are seen as weakening of the four pincers which Sepah had developed to complete the nuclear programme to its asserted militarized phase.   
 
What we may see in reality, sanctions are likely to be used by Sepah as an opportunity to use the veil of foreign threat and national security to complete their grip on the economy and increase their revenues from their rent-seeking activities and at the same time displace their private sector competitors.  In reality, sanctions may be used to expand Sepah’s economic empire and its share of the economy. At the same time, sanctions if policed effectively will very quickly see a fall in the growth rate of the economy.  Combined with the poor management skills of Sepah, sanctions could push the Iranian economy into negative growth rate within 12-18 months.  Industrial production is estimated to decline by 15 percent while unemployment rising by as much as another 5-7 percent on top of the existing official 15 percent (22% unofficial).  In a young society where around 70% are under 30 years old, this could mean an unemployment rate of 35% amongst those enter the job market for the first time. 
 
Sanctions are certain to increase cost of conducting trade to the economy, in this case by as much as 50% in some sectors.  In the Iranian economy where imports use 88% of oil revenues, a rise in the cost of trade will be transferred to higher domestic prices.  Those on fixed income, i.e. salaried and waged households will be most affected since they cannot adjust their prices, that is, the value of their labour accordingly.  An accelerating inflation rate is almost certain do deplete the last nuggets of savings of the middle classes and push a large segment into the low income category. 
 
As sanctions have often shown to produce, health spending and education are amongst the first services which governments cut their budgets whilst increasing the resources available to the security and intelligent services.  Low income and middle income families are most dependent on the public sector provision of health and education services in Iran. It is more than likely that access and availability of these two basic services will be affected negatively.  Entitlement to basic health and education are crucial to the development of a healthy and
 
So, why sanctions are used? They are preferred now since they are aimed to deal with the rising influence of Sepah command that has been transferring massive segments of the economy under its ownership and encouraging the mushrooming of corruption and systemic implementation of rent-seeking behaviour in foreign trade and energy sectors and banking.  The rising financial power of Sepah is understood to have significant implications for the military and nuclear programmes approved by the leadership who wishes to see completion of control in the economy as well as over the politics of the country.  Going back to business-as-usual not only actually will make a mockery of human rights of the citizens inside Iran, but may also have serious consequences in dealing with future risks under a new power structure in Islamic republic of Iran.
 
Sanctions are and always will have a negative effect on the wellbeing of the citizens of the targeted country but sometimes, they can accelerate positive change and bring about transition to a more participatory policy making framework of governance.  They are the softest of the hard power tools or the hardest of the diplomatic language.  In this case, they are displacing military action against Iran and those who talk about positive engagement may wish to pause and think about the behaviour of the leadership in the last 12 months and even in last 13 years when the Supreme Leader has blocked any attempts to meaningful and lasting reform.  The dead end is one of the making of policies pursued by the leadership and is neither the wish of the West nor the citizens of Iran who wish to pursue a fruitful life and live in peace.

AUTHOR
Dr. Mehrdad Emadi is Economic advisor to the European Union.

Balatarin
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Onlyiran

Khashayar a/k/a many other usernames

by Onlyiran on Wed Jul 07, 2010 08:13 AM PDT

you're such a clown...

 Iran is widely respected in the Indian subcontient, East Indies, Africa and Latin America.

Really?!!!!  Here, read this:

 //www1.voanews.com/persian/news/iran/Obama_Ahmadinejad-2010-06-19-96713694.html

Unfortunately, Iran under the IRI has lost respect all over the world, including across the Muslim world.

PS-  This article is in Persian.  I'm sorry, but I couldn't find the Arabic version.  Perhaps you can have someone translate it for you. 


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AMIR1973

Khashayarsha: Islamists are incapable of honesty

by AMIR1973 on Wed Jul 07, 2010 08:00 AM PDT

Below is a link to a list of countries by export. Angola is #38, and IRI is #39. Bear in mind that Angola's population is 18 million, i.e. one-fourth that of IRI and IRI has the second biggest natural gas reserves and third biggest oil reserves in the world. How pathetic of the IRI. 

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports

You can keep calling me an Aryanist all you want, Yousef/Reza. I never said anything about "Aryan". Prove I did, you Islamist liar. Of course, Zahak is a myth. But it doesn't change the fact that the Arabs were viewd as enemies of Iran in Iran's national epic (Shahnameh), and, more importantly, Arabs have killed hundreds of thousands of Iranians in my own lifetime, and the West hasn't. I think poetry captures it best:

Arab dar biaban malakh mikhorad,

Sag-e Esfahan ab-e yakh mikhorad 

"300" was a crappy movie based on a comic book, you clown :-)

Not that it's your business, but I was in Iran several years ago visiting relatives and sightseeing and traveled to a number of cities in different parts of the country.

It's obvious that Islamists are incapable of honesty (or much else, expect for killing, stealing, running economies into the ground, and barking empty threats--all while living in the West in the manner of a parasite  :-)


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Khashayarsha

Let's debunk Amir's lies

by Khashayarsha on Wed Jul 07, 2010 06:51 AM PDT

 

IRI is an economic basket case with lower exports in 2009 than Angola.
That's right, Angola. No one who is able to read and write his/her own
name respects the IRI. 

Angola is not a poor country. It is rich in crude oil, diamonds and minerals. Anyway, you are wrong as always, according to even the CIA data on both countries.

IRAN

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world...

$100.6 billion (2008 est.)

ANGOLA

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world...

$63.91 billion (2008 est.)

The "traditional enemies" of Iranians are Arabs (i.e Zahak).
Unfortunately, Iran is currently being ruled by the followers of Zahak. 

Zahak is mythology, you silly little man. Butg thanks for exposing your anti-Arab racism. I always knew you were an Aryanist.

Maybe you didn't watch "300" but Iran was at war for 1,000 years with both Greece and Rome and then with the British for 200 years.

Good luck with that. After 8 years, IRI had to "drink
the poisoned chalice" and admit that it couldn't defeat Saddam--Saddam
who was one of the most inept military commanders in history. The U.S.
defeated that Arab clown twice in 3 weeks. 

What treacherous talk! You mock the sacrifices of Iranian soldiers armed with a single rifle who took on Saddam's tanks, jets and missiles!? Aren't you forgetting that we pushed Saddam's army back and liberated Khorranshahr in 3WEEKS? Aren't yuou forgetting that the West supplied Saddam with arms, intelligence, and even fought for him as his navy during the tanker war? Aren't you forgetting that they supplied him with materials to build chemical weapons, without which his army would have crumbled? Saddam didn't fire one chemical missile at the Americans.

Anyway, Iran-trained  Hezbollah beat Israel in a matter of weeks in 2006. The Israelis even lost a warship.

IRI is in such a pathetic state with these folks in charge. 

We are recording your comments professing your hatred for Iran. Like the Mujahedeen, you will sell yourself to the highest bidder as part of your campaign of treason , slander and propaganda.

Btw, when was the last time you visited Iran? Have you ever been there?

 

 


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AMIR1973

Khashayar: Keep up the comedy routine

by AMIR1973 on Wed Jul 07, 2010 06:28 AM PDT

Iran is now the powerhouse in the region, with influence in Iraq, the Levant, Yemen, the Gulf and the Caucasus. Iran is widely respected in the Indian subcontient, East Indies, Africa and Latin America.

IRI is an economic basket case with lower exports in 2009 than Angola. That's right, Angola. No one who is able to read and write his/her own name respects the IRI.

It is only the decadent regimes of the West, the traditional enemies of Persian civilization since Greco-Roman times, that oppose Iranian power and support people like Amir so that they can have a compliant and subservient Iran, just like under the Pahlavis.

The "traditional enemies" of Iranians are Arabs (i.e Zahak). Unfortunately, Iran is currently being ruled by the followers of Zahak.

Well, its not going to happen. We are going to go nuclear and kick the infidels and Zionists out of the region.

Good luck with that. After 8 years, IRI had to "drink the poisoned chalice" and admit that it couldn't defeat Saddam--Saddam who was one of the most inept military commanders in history. The U.S. defeated that Arab clown twice in 3 weeks. Israel defeated three Arab armies in Six Days. Islamist & Arab militaries are useful only for killing their own people and acting as economic mafias in their own corrupt, unproductive, and dysfunctional economies.

Then we will demand that Amir be extradited to Iran to face his trial. He will have to prove all his rape charges or else we will have to amputate his male member (Islamic style) as punishment for his lies and sins.

Too funny even to comment on. It's nice to see what the "elite" of IRI propagandists (e.g. Yousef Bozorgmehr/Reza Esfandiari) represent. If these are the IRI "elite", just imagine how dumb the rank-and-file must be--no wonder IRI is in such a pathetic state with these folks in charge. Just one question: What color would you like your straitjacket to be?  :-)


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Cost-of-Progress

Wow, you need serious treatment

by Cost-of-Progress on Wed Jul 07, 2010 06:28 AM PDT

All you islamist nutjobs need help. Your disguise as the Persian nationalist is so obviously transparent and phony...it won't work. You are a true arab loving islamist fascist. It is so obvious. 

Just to reiterate: YOUR DAYS/MONTHS ARE NUMBERED. THE PEOPLE HAVE SEEN YOU FOR WHAT YOU ARE. YOU HAVE SHOWN EVERYONE THE TRUE FACE OF WHAT YOU SUPPORT. PACK YOUR BAGS AND GTFO OF MY MOTHERLAND.

____________

IRAN FIRST

____________


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Khashayarsha

Khasharyar shah

by Khashayarsha on Wed Jul 07, 2010 05:44 AM PDT

 

You see I want Iran to achieve the same power it wielded under Khashayar. Iran is now the powerhouse in the region, with influence in Iraq, the Levant, Yemen, the Gulf and the Caucasus. Iran is widely respected in the Indian subcontient, East Indies, Africa and Latin America.

It is only the decadent regimes of the West, the traditional enemies of Persian civilization since Greco-Roman times, that oppose Iranian power and support people like Amir so that they can have a compliant and subservient Iran, just like under the Pahlavis.

Well, its not going to happen. We are going to go nuclear and kick the infidels and Zionists out of the region.

Then we will demand that Amir be extradited to Iran to face his trial. He will have to prove all his rape charges or else we will have to amputate his male member (Islamic style) as punishment for his lies and sins.

 

 


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Cost-of-Progress

khashayarsha

by Cost-of-Progress on Wed Jul 07, 2010 04:52 AM PDT

you smear the name of a great leader and his creed by using it as your username and then post your islamist mumbo jumbo.

Are you people on a rotation? 90% of you numbnuts have registered less than 24 hours before you start posting your pro-islamist garbage.

I think this is clear: YOUR DAYS/MONTHS ARE NUMBERED. THE PEOPLE HAVE SEEN YOU FOR WHAT YOU ARE. YOU HAVE SHOWN EVERYONE THE TRUE FACE OF WHAT YOU SUPPORT. PACK YOUR BAGS AND GTFO OF MY MOTHERLAND.

____________

IRAN FIRST

____________


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AMIR1973

Khashayarsha: You are getting less funny (and more disturbing)

by AMIR1973 on Wed Jul 07, 2010 03:55 AM PDT

My ire is targeted at a cleptocratic elite 

IRI is ruled by a kleptocracy, though I hesitate to call "akhoondha-ya shepeshoo" elite. 

Also, I think this obsession with "rape" may be because you cannot woon white, farangi women. Is that not the case? Are you too swarthy for their liking? You want to force yourself on them, right? 

Rapist Regime is a perfect description of the IRI, because it is factually true. If you like, I will call them Killers & Thieves instead (that too is an accurate description). I like my women dark, hairy, fanatically Islamic, toothless, and covered from head to toe--straight from Beautiful Gaza. Have you taken your evening dose of haldol yet? Have a nice day, Yousef/Reza jaan. Talk to you later  :-)

 

BTW, "woon" is not a word--you mean woo. You are obviously extremely "ba savad"--much like the rest of the IRI "elite"  :-) 


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Khashayarsha

The West

by Khashayarsha on Wed Jul 07, 2010 03:24 AM PDT

 

Amir, I have no hostility to the West and its civilization - it gave the world Aristotle, Plato, Mozart, Leonardo da Vinci, Cicero and other great men.

My ire is targeted at a cleptocratic elite who wage wars against Muslims and plunder their resources whilst supporting the usuper Zionist regime.

I am a big admirer of German efficiency and believe Iran should model itself on their performance in industry and football.

Btw, the "windmill" is a landmark of Holland, but it was invented in Persia.

Also, I think this obsession with "rape" may be because you cannot woon white, farangi women. Is that not the case? Are you too swarthy for their liking? You want to force yourself on them, right?

 


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AMIR1973

Khashayarsha: You are still pretty funny

by AMIR1973 on Tue Jul 06, 2010 09:07 PM PDT

But I liked you better when you were Yousef Bozorgmehr (or was it his "malijak" Reza Esfandiari). Anyway, I hope you're enjoying life in the Evil West. Without the Evil West, the Internet or computer would never have been invented for you to bark your empty threats at me. "Akhoondha-yeh shepeshoo" could never have invented the Internet or computers--the best they can do is an "aftabeh". The only effect of your barking will be for me to double my work of exposing West-residing Islamist Rapist Groupies, like yourself. "Shab beh kheyr, azizam". Now, go take your medicine so the voices inside your head stop talking  :-)


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Khashayarsha

Like I say

by Khashayarsha on Tue Jul 06, 2010 06:23 PM PDT

 

Amir, you will be brought before the courtroom of the people and it is they who will judge you for your perfidy, conceit and your doroogh.

Your sponsors in the American government will disown you, and you will feel alone and afraid. The people will demand that you be punished for your wickedness and I will be there to pass sentence.

You, and your monarchist and mojahed friends, will share the same fate. You shall taste the fruit of the Zaqqum in this life and in the hereafter.


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pastor bill rennick

Yes I can and did!

by pastor bill rennick on Tue Jul 06, 2010 06:29 PM PDT

!


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Bavafa

spot on Benross

by Bavafa on Tue Jul 06, 2010 05:24 PM PDT

I completely agree with your comment.

Mehrdad


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benross

No you are not. You're done.

by benross on Tue Jul 06, 2010 05:19 PM PDT

No you are not. You're done.


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pastor bill rennick

Hey benross, I haven't offended you at all. But I am very much

by pastor bill rennick on Tue Jul 06, 2010 05:12 PM PDT

capable of. So watch it!


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pastor bill rennick

Brother fooladi, I mean as soon as they get on the plane or bus

by pastor bill rennick on Tue Jul 06, 2010 05:09 PM PDT

or camel to leave Iran the bombers and the artilleries should be ready to fire.

For those members who live around London, Toronto, and LA we should have another plan. We should castrate their men and slave their women for extra circular activities if you know what I mean!


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benross

No foreign country bomb my

by benross on Tue Jul 06, 2010 05:06 PM PDT

No foreign country bomb my country. Capice?


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benross

Get lost pator. You are no

by benross on Tue Jul 06, 2010 04:59 PM PDT

Get lost pator. You are no better than akhoonds.


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fooladi

If you wanna bomb" mullahs , their families and supporters"

by fooladi on Tue Jul 06, 2010 04:59 PM PDT

Then you must precision bomb suburbs of London, Toronto and LA, where they are fast moving to. Not such a good idea Pastor :)


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pastor bill rennick

Even if the sanctions worked, the mullahs, their family members,

by pastor bill rennick on Tue Jul 06, 2010 04:52 PM PDT

and supporters should be bombed into oblivion. That's why it is imperative that US should target these barbaric animals with high precision missiles.

Amen brothers and sisters!


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Majid

WOW!!!!

by Majid on Tue Jul 06, 2010 04:42 PM PDT

"He will be brought before the court of the people one day - and no mercy shall be shown."       In IRAN? Court of the people? and no mercy on that court? like there was any before?       Are we talking about the same Iran?       How can you put those two words in the same sentence with a straight face? Khodet khande at nemigireh?    

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AMIR1973

Khashayarsha: Ghorboonet beram

by AMIR1973 on Tue Jul 06, 2010 04:23 PM PDT

I wonder who you were in a previous life (Yousef Bozorgmehr, Ayatooleh Messed up Yazdi or maybe something not even human   :-)  Let me correct a few things for you, because you are clearly delusional and a little nuts too:

He hates his homeland and mocks all the achievements of the Iranian people over the last 30 years. He is no doubt part of the CIA-NED drive to disseminate evil propaganda and make the Iranian nation disappointed.

I love my homeland, but hate Islamist Rapists who kill Iranians and steal from them. The Iranian people have made some achievements in spite of the Islamist Rapists, not because of them. I am currently a joint employee of Mossad and KGB, because my application was rejected by the CIA. I will reapply next year. I think the Iranian nation was disappointed by Team-e Melli this year, but we always have the World Cup. In the meantime, Go Uruguay!

But his lies and treason are not gone unnoticed - here and elsewhere

They say there's no such thing as bad PR, so being noticed (even by nutcases) is a good thing.

He will be brought before the court of the people one day - and no mercy shall be shown.

Who heads the "court of the people"--Judge Judy or Judge Wapner?

Rooz khosh, and remember to take your medicine   :-)


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Khashayarsha

Amir is a US government agent

by Khashayarsha on Tue Jul 06, 2010 04:12 PM PDT

 

He hates his homeland and mocks all the achievements of the Iranian people over the last 30 years. He is no doubt part of the CIA-NED drive to disseminate evil propaganda and make the Iranian nation disappointed.

But his lies and treason are not gone unnoticed - here and elsewhere.

He will be brought before the court of the people one day - and no mercy shall be shown.


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benross

Tiny minority

by benross on Tue Jul 06, 2010 10:28 AM PDT

This thread had 620 hit so far. yours, 185. Which included a comment that was removed, not accusing you of anything, but asking you to disclose for which funded group you work, if that is the case. The comment was emphasizing that there is nothing wrong with that, just disclose it. Now you come to this thread accusing, figuratively speaking 620 people as Israeli agents, and 'tiny minority'. Why you pollute this thread with these accusations when you have yours?

The comment that was removed actually has a very good guidance for all of us. There is nothing wrong -inherently- of working on behalf of a funded group. Just disclose it and leave it at that. Let readers be the judge. Instead of all these accusations roaming around.


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Cost-of-Progress

Do all you nutjob

by Cost-of-Progress on Tue Jul 06, 2010 08:10 AM PDT

islamists write your nonsense posts with a straight face?

Anything that is not to your liking, i.e. those who do not kiss the ass of the Anti iranian mullacracy are israelis...right?

And when soemone says you are the agents of the regime, you take offense and deny.

____________

IRAN FIRST

____________


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Niloufar Parsi

amgw4

by Niloufar Parsi on Tue Jul 06, 2010 07:50 AM PDT

all i can say is: try to ignore the rabid zionists. they are a tiny minority that tends to scream a lot! it comes from a self-loathing inferiority complex that they obviously suffer from. it's expected of such traitors. they hate themselves more than anyone else.

Peace


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David ET

يك نماينده مجلس: تحريم ايران را مي‌شكند

David ET
Tue Jul 06, 2010 06:57 AM PDT

عليرضا محجوب  نماينده مجلس معتقد است آثار تورم ناشي از اين تحريم‌ها براي ايران شكننده خواهد بود و بايد با تمام توان براي خروج از بحران پيش‌رو تلاش كرد

link


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AMIR1973

Sanctions will give IRI's economy a shot in the arm :-)

by AMIR1973 on Tue Jul 06, 2010 06:49 AM PDT

I think the West-residing IRI Groupies should stop all their complaining about sanctions. The economy will be helped, the "masses" (in the Commie sense?) will be helped, and IRI's economy will continue to boom and prosper. Are delusions necessarily a bad thing? Debate amongst yourselves  :-) 

 

Meanwhile, back in the real world:

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports 


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amgw4

How does it hurt the Iranian economy to have foreign competitors

by amgw4 on Tue Jul 06, 2010 06:40 AM PDT

 "The sanctions are working (see the list). //iranian.com/main/news/2010/07/05/foreig... "

How does it hurt the Iranian economy to have foreign competitors driven out? You people obviously know nothing about Iran. In every industry, from refrigerators to cars to petrochemical processing to even toothpaste! there are two products on the Iranian market. One is the Iranian made product which I hear works well enough but which is viewed as inferior because people want the foreign one (I suspect mainly because of the status gained by showing your friends that you could afford to buy the expensive foreign made product.) Iranian companies have complained of this bias and how it's costing Iranians jobs. You see a similar phenomenon in the US as consumers choose German/Chinese/Japanese products over American ones.

So having these companies leave is no less than a miracle for the Iranian producers. They've gone from being second rate to the only option. For example, that Pars gas field that was going to be developed mainly by foreign companies will now be developed entirely by Iranian ones. This will create jobs.

Now, I don't mean to say there are no downsides. For example, the reason the Iranian government wanted to hire foreign companies to develop the field was because it would ensure that the latest technology is being used. Ultimately this lack of access to foreign technology advancements could harm the economy, but it's not clear how this will turn out as Iran is a country that embraces technology so they may be able to compensate. Also keep in mind that a lot of good technology comes from asian countries these days so the move away from Europe may not be so bad.

In addition, all those wealthy Iranians who made money in Iran and kept it in Europe will be very angry about the banking regulations, and they probably have political power due to their wealth but as last year's events showed a few wealthy Tehranis do not have the power to overcome the will of the masses. 

All in all I expect to see the Iranian economy to be stimulated by this move, at least in the short term.


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David ET

It worked in South Africa

by David ET on Tue Jul 06, 2010 04:37 AM PDT

Sanctions and trade embargos lead to collapse of apartheid regime in South Africa.

Wikipedia: by the late 1980s the United States, the United Kingdom, and 23 other nations had passed laws placing various trade sanctions on South Africa. A divestment movement in many countries was similarly widespread, with individual cities and provinces around the world implementing various laws and local regulations forbidding registered corporations under their jurisdiction from doing business with South African firms, factories, or banks


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