They can work

In this case, they are displacing military action against Iran

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They can work
by Mehrdad Emadi
05-Jul-2010
 

With the most recent round of UN-approved sanctions and seemingly more restrictive additional sanctions introduced by the European Union, Canada, Japan and Australia, there appears to be renewed interest in the effectiveness of sanctions in altering the behaviour of the Islamic Republic of Iran concerning the atomic energy programme of the regime and its real purpose. In this note, I try to explore some of the less often discussed but I hope not less appreciated possible effects of sanctions. 
 
Stated expected effects, sanctions will raise the cost of developing industrial capacity as development of the energy sector in Iran.  Given that 80% of government’s budget and 70 percent of investment in industrial projects come from oil revenues which are under the monopoly of government and now significantly transferred in management to Islamic Guards, Sepah, sanctions will result in a fall in the revenue of government reducing its financial capability to pursue and complete its nuclear energy programme which is suspect of having the capacity to develop military potential for weaponization.  This line of analysis advocates that in light of a very ambitious long range missile programme which already has the assumed capability of delivering a load, be it very small in weight, to most of southern Europe, world community, in the interest of collective security should use sanctions to cause a substantial reduction in the income earning of the present leaders and their security force Sepah which in recent years has expanded its presence in the oil, gas and almost all layers of the economy.  Targeting of the four industries; energy, banking, transport and insurance are seen as weakening of the four pincers which Sepah had developed to complete the nuclear programme to its asserted militarized phase.   
 
What we may see in reality, sanctions are likely to be used by Sepah as an opportunity to use the veil of foreign threat and national security to complete their grip on the economy and increase their revenues from their rent-seeking activities and at the same time displace their private sector competitors.  In reality, sanctions may be used to expand Sepah’s economic empire and its share of the economy. At the same time, sanctions if policed effectively will very quickly see a fall in the growth rate of the economy.  Combined with the poor management skills of Sepah, sanctions could push the Iranian economy into negative growth rate within 12-18 months.  Industrial production is estimated to decline by 15 percent while unemployment rising by as much as another 5-7 percent on top of the existing official 15 percent (22% unofficial).  In a young society where around 70% are under 30 years old, this could mean an unemployment rate of 35% amongst those enter the job market for the first time. 
 
Sanctions are certain to increase cost of conducting trade to the economy, in this case by as much as 50% in some sectors.  In the Iranian economy where imports use 88% of oil revenues, a rise in the cost of trade will be transferred to higher domestic prices.  Those on fixed income, i.e. salaried and waged households will be most affected since they cannot adjust their prices, that is, the value of their labour accordingly.  An accelerating inflation rate is almost certain do deplete the last nuggets of savings of the middle classes and push a large segment into the low income category. 
 
As sanctions have often shown to produce, health spending and education are amongst the first services which governments cut their budgets whilst increasing the resources available to the security and intelligent services.  Low income and middle income families are most dependent on the public sector provision of health and education services in Iran. It is more than likely that access and availability of these two basic services will be affected negatively.  Entitlement to basic health and education are crucial to the development of a healthy and
 
So, why sanctions are used? They are preferred now since they are aimed to deal with the rising influence of Sepah command that has been transferring massive segments of the economy under its ownership and encouraging the mushrooming of corruption and systemic implementation of rent-seeking behaviour in foreign trade and energy sectors and banking.  The rising financial power of Sepah is understood to have significant implications for the military and nuclear programmes approved by the leadership who wishes to see completion of control in the economy as well as over the politics of the country.  Going back to business-as-usual not only actually will make a mockery of human rights of the citizens inside Iran, but may also have serious consequences in dealing with future risks under a new power structure in Islamic republic of Iran.
 
Sanctions are and always will have a negative effect on the wellbeing of the citizens of the targeted country but sometimes, they can accelerate positive change and bring about transition to a more participatory policy making framework of governance.  They are the softest of the hard power tools or the hardest of the diplomatic language.  In this case, they are displacing military action against Iran and those who talk about positive engagement may wish to pause and think about the behaviour of the leadership in the last 12 months and even in last 13 years when the Supreme Leader has blocked any attempts to meaningful and lasting reform.  The dead end is one of the making of policies pursued by the leadership and is neither the wish of the West nor the citizens of Iran who wish to pursue a fruitful life and live in peace.

AUTHOR
Dr. Mehrdad Emadi is Economic advisor to the European Union.

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Khashayarsha

Farsi lesson 2

by Khashayarsha on

 

Beravim = berim = let's go! (imperative)

mitavanim beravim = we can go. (subjunctive)

The use of "beravim" is both a command in itself and as part of a sentence.

Seriously, gharbzadeh, learn something about your native tongue and culture.


AMIR1973

"There's no such thing as Islamism"

by AMIR1973 on

The kind of people who would say that are the kind of people who say that the Pahlavis killed 100,000 Iranians. Or that the IRI has a sound economy. Or who would support someone who invites former KKK Grand Wizard David Duke and other neo-Nazis to Tehran for a holocaust denial conference, yet accuse others of being an "Aryanist". I'm not sure whether he saw Khomeini's face in the moon that night though  :-)


Cost-of-Progress

perhaps you have mixed Arabic with Persian

by Cost-of-Progress on

True that you people have decimated the language by polluting it with your arabic lettering, etc. But as usual with any islamist brain-washed moron, you are wrong here.

When you tell some one to listen, you say: GOOSH BEDE, Goosh bedi is not direct conversation and refers to the state of "estemrari" (there, I used a word with arabic roots - happy?). Stop using multiple usernames and ask the embassy staff to get you a good translator Abu.

Now then...

____________

IRAN FIRST

____________


MM

Islamist vs. Muslim?

by MM on

For a clear distinction between a Muslim and Islamist, see the article by the Boroumand sisters:

//www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/gratis/Boroumand.pdf

Terror, Islam, and Democracy
Boroumand, Ladan.
Boroumand, Roya.
Journal of Democracy, Volume 13, Number 2, April 2002, pp. 5-20 (Article)

Even someone who had never seen the article once told me that " maa mosalmaaneem.  oonhaa eslaami hastand".  If you cannot see the difference between an Eslami and Mosalmaan, you are most probably a political Muslim who likes the 6th century Shari'a as the law of the land, and by definition, an Islamist.


Rosie.

Of course there's such a thing as Islamism.

by Rosie. on

At least according to the terminology commonly used in the 'West' so-called.

IslamISM is the implementation of a fundamentalist Islamic regime which imposes Shariah and doesn't permit equal rights to minorities, etc. Such as in Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and so forth. It is usually (at least nominally) 'elected'.

It is a political term, not a religious or even cultural one. It is a grotesque deformation and exploitation of Islam as a hegemonic, autocratic political tool. In Iran its manifestation is a schizoid hybrid beast combining three governing bodies: the Velayate Faghi, the Judiciary, and the Majlis and all other (s)elected politicans (and behind it all the Sepah. As you know. It is a modern system. It is new.

Some people say IslamICISM.

Islam is the name of a religion which is quite flexible and has many forms.

The adjective form usually used for IslamISM is IslamIST(occasionally IslamICIST), and for Islam Islamic. That's why the Islamic Republic of Iran is a misnomer. Particularly since Sufis, Sunnis, even dissenting Shia grand ayatollahs, etc. are persecuted.

____________

If someone (on let's call it loosely the center-right or avowedly anti-IRI 'camp') uses the two terms to refer correctly to the two different entities, this generally indicates a good understanding of the situation, often accompanied by a respect (or at least tolerance) of Islam.

If someone uses them randomly, they are befuddled, not helpful to meaningful discourse at all, and not infrequently cjhauvinstic and dangerous (imho). 

I try to use the suffix in all caps, IslamISM, IslamIST to make the distinction from Islam, Islamic clear.


AMIR1973

Spinning lie after lie: keep at it

by AMIR1973 on

There is no such thing as "Islamism"

Enough said  :-)


Khashayarsha

I am a Muslim. No such thing as an "Islamist"

by Khashayarsha on

 

Islam is the religion. Muslim is the adherent of the religion. There is no such thing as "Islamism". It shows a lot about you that you regard as "facts" stories about Kaveh and Zahhak from the Shahnameh.

You never lived under the Pahlavi regime, never witnessed its crimes and then have the cheek to ask me to prove on an internet site that this murderous, despotic monarchy did not kill over 100,000 Iranians.

You are neither Iranian nor American - you are a deluded, ignorant and immature man. I suggest you speak to those people who were martyred by the Shah and get a picture of the daily killings that occured in Evin and other prsisons, the students assassinated by Savak agents in Europe and other acts of terror by this criminal regime.

Please return all the money paid to you by the Pahlavi foundation, NED and VOA if you have any honor at all.


AMIR1973

You can repeat your lying all you want: it's the Islamist way

by AMIR1973 on

The number of people killed by your beloved Pahlavi dynasty (1921-1979) was over 100,000. Savak killed tens of thousands, the police killed tens of thousands, the army killed tens of thousands, the "health corps" killed tens of thousands. At one point the Shah was killing over 100 people every day, and not the usual 3-5.

Prove it. It's as simple as that. Prove it and show that there is one honest Islamist in this entire world. Instead of making empty threats, prove it. I would call you a lying Islamist, but that's like saying lying liar  :-)


Khashayarsha

SAVAK was formed in 1957

by Khashayarsha on

 

The number of people killed by your beloved Pahlavi dynasty (1921-1979) was over 100,000.

Savak killed tens of thousands, the police killed tens of thousands, the army killed tens of thousands, the "health corps" killed tens of thousands.

At one point the Shah was killing over 100 people every day, and not the usual 3-5.

Stop being an apologist-mercenary for your royalist friends. 

I am noting down your denials. They will be used against you when the people try you for your propaganda and lies.


AMIR1973

Is there even one honest Islamist out there?

by AMIR1973 on

It is so obvious you are part of the Pahlavi foundation!

Oh yeah, I am a Pahlavi-supporting, Mosaddeq-loving, Mojahed (I mean, Monafeq) BBC/VOA/NED/CIA/KGB/Mossad Zionist Imperialist Commie stooge. Sure I am. BTW, how's the haldol coming along?   :-) 

But the true figures killed by SAVAK are in the tens of thousands.

Prove it. You claim "100,000 killed", "tens of thousands killed". But none of those links state that "tens of thousands" (let alone 100,000!) were killed by SAVAK or the Shah. They claim that thousands were tortured AND killed--not even remotely the same thing as you're claiming. You have the option of quitting your lying now, but every fiber of your Islamist nature will likely lead you to pile lies on top of more lies.

//www.emadbaghi.com/en/archives/000592.php 

 


Khashayarsha

Your deception won't work

by Khashayarsha on

 

It is so obvious you are part of the Pahlavi foundation!

Read Abrahamian's book!

The numbers he cites are official figures. The Shah would regularly announce the execution of Fedayeen and Tudeh members. But the true figures killed by SAVAK are in the tens of thousands.

The wikipedia article quotes TIME magazine:

//www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,9...

TIME magazine described SAVAK as having "long been
Iran's most hated and feared institution" which had "tortured and
murdered thousands of the Shah's opponents."

The FAS reports SAVAK torture tactics:

//www.fas.org/irp/world/iran/savak/index.html

SAVAK's
torture methods
included electric shock, whipping, beating, inserting
brokon glass and pouring boiling water into the rectum, tying weights to
the testicles, and the extraction of teeth and nails. Many of these
activities were carried out without any institutional
checks. 

Get a grip on reality.

 

 


AMIR1973

I saw for myself, and you're lying big time

by AMIR1973 on

From the link you provided:

Abrahamian estimates that SAVAK (and other police and military) killed 368 guerillas between 1971-1977 and executed something less than 100 political prisoners between 1971 and 1979 - the most violent era of the SAVAK's existence

100,000, huh? Are you as mathematically challenged as you appear to be? I certainly don't deny that SAVAK killed and executed opponents of the Shah's regime, but the number was far, far fewer than the number executed by the IRI. I'm glad we're having this "exchange". It's important for folks to see Islamists for the intrinsically dishonest breed that they are (I know they already knew that, but it's important to see Islamists in action, especially the West-residing and English-speaking species, who presumably represent a more "elite" variety of this loathsome ideology).


Khashayarsha

See for yourself

by Khashayarsha on

 

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5755xzFSbY

200 people killed in one day's butchery. And you ask why 100,000 dead is too many over 20,000 days of Pahlavi rule?

These massacres happened almost every week during both the Islamic Revolution and during the "White revolution" of the late shah.

The SAVAK killed many more in secret.

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAVAK

For a full account of those killed by the Shah I suggest you read Ervand Abrahamian's books. I also have some documents if you want me to post them to you.

No one is in denial of this, except you.


AMIR1973

Prove it. Let's see your evidence

by AMIR1973 on

Those killed by Reza Shah and his son from 1921 to 1979 total nearly 100,000

Show me and the other readers of Iranian.com the evidence that the Pahlavis killed 100,000 Iranians. Unsubstantiated claims do not count as evidence. I have maintained and continue to do so that Islamists are pathological liars. This is your chance to show that there is one honest IRI Groupie out there. It's put up or shut up time.


Khashayarsha

Farsi lesson

by Khashayarsha on

 

OK, for all you Anglophonic Iranians

Gush bedi is a colloquial form of Gush bedehid

گوش بدهید

It is an imperative form (same as the subjuctive) of "Gush dadan" which means: "You listen up!"

"Gush bedeh" is also an imperative but directed at no particular person

Learn beginner Farsi here

//www.studypersian.com

 

 

 


Cost-of-Progress

Amir

by Cost-of-Progress on

These people sign on with multiple usernames and spew their lies about their Islamic eutopia and how independent Iran is now - Yeah Right!

The more you dialouge with them, the more garbage they cranck out.

This guy is not even iranian, I bet with his "gush bedi". Is that supposed to be "goosh bede"?

____________

IRAN FIRST

____________


Khashayarsha

Amir the little boy

by Khashayarsha on

 

The numbers killed during the revolution itself are 3000.

Those killed by Reza Shah and his son from 1921 to 1979 total nearly 100,000. My father knew the Savakis who would regularly murder dissident Iranians inside the country and also outside. He witnessed the deaths of 10 communists who were shot in the head during the night.

As for lying, the greens claimed that a "massacre" happened in Baharestan square last year when nothing of the kind took place.

Amir, you are just an Americanized superbrat who has never really experienced Iran or know anything about it. You just get your information from internet sites and Iranians based in the United States.

It is difficult to take you seriously. Maybe you should forget about Iran, and just worry about being a citizen of the United States.


benross

AMIR

by benross on

I appreciate your effort and I know it's aimed at other readers. But leave it for a better occasion. This person introduced himself, who he is and where he lives. That pretty much sums it up. It's self explanatory.


AMIR1973

Completely made-up lies by a West-residing IRI Groupie

by AMIR1973 on

Hi Yousef/Reza. The number of 100,000 (!?!?!) is a figment of your imagination, probably made up by the akhoonds while in an opium-induced haze. Next, you'll tell me that Khomeini's face really did appear in the moon that night in 1978  :-)

 

A researcher at the IRI's own Martyr Foundation tallied all the deaths at the hands of the Pahlavi Regime from 1963-1979, and it came to just over 3100--2700 of whom died in the Islamist orgy of arson and destruction called the "revolution" of '78-79. The Islamists claim that over 15,000 (!?!?!) were killed and injured in Jaleh Square (again, the research done by the IRI's own Martyr Foundation found that 64 were killed in Jaleh Square). And remember: the bloodiest single incident was when Islamist arsonists burned the Cinema Rex and killed 400 people. Islamists are literally incapable of honesty. They are inveterate and shameless liars. It is impossible to have a meaningful dialogue or debate with such shameless liars.


Khashayarsha

Bache sosool, gush bedi

by Khashayarsha on

 

You didn't live under the Shah's regime - so don't say stupid things like the IRI is the most "repressive regime ever". The Pahlavi dynasty murdered over 100,000 Iranians in its 60 year reign of terror. My family was part of the royalist establishment which witnessed this. Yours was not.

The Shah would regularly open fire on protestors - killing up to 100 people in the streets every time. Many more would simply "disappear" or die in the royal dungeons.

The number of those killed over an entire year of political violence instigated by the "green movement" is just 80-100.

Btw, Mossadegh was a failure - A Qajari prince who couldn't stand up to the Shah and his American-British masters.

It is only under Khomeini's Islamic Republic that Iran has regained self-determination and independence. Now, if there is to be any change, it will be done by Iranians and for Iranians.

 


AMIR1973

The idea of being on the

by AMIR1973 on

The idea of being on the same island as you, whether Kish or Great Britain, is frankly sickening to me and makes my skin crawl. My father was not tied to the Shah's regime. He supported Mosaddeq in the 1950s. He also supported the revolution of '78-79 but like most decent people grew completely disillusioned when he saw the killings, destruction, thievery, stupidity, corruption, and savagery of the Islamists who were 100 times worse than the Shah. I was last in Iran several years ago visiting relatives and sightseeing. I visited a number of cities while I was there. I found Iranians to be the most decent people in the world; they deserve much better than the IRI, which is the worst, most violent, and most repressive regime in recent Iranian history.


Khashayarsha

I bet Amir has never been to Iran

by Khashayarsha on

 

He is just some American superbrat whose father was tied to the Shah's regime or something. I was having a debate a few years ago with an  MKO/MEK girl called Gowhar who also had never been to Iran.

Maybe Amir wouldn't mind holidaying with me in Kish if he is afraid to visit Tehran. We can stay at the Daryush (my father) hotel and go watch the dolphins and chase the Shemirani girls who frequent the island.


AMIR1973

Since simple facts are

by AMIR1973 on

Since simple facts are difficult for you to grasp, I will repeat them for you: IRI has the second largest natural gas reserves and third largest oil reserves in the world. For it to be below any sub-Saharan African country is a travesty. Khomeini said, eghtesad male khar ast. What he should have said, was eghtesad male Khashayarsha va IRI Groupieha-yeh digar ast  :-)

Your empty threats will not change the fact that the IRI has been an abject failure on every count, except for setting records of killing Iranians, torturing, stoning, flogging, hostage taking, sending 12 year-old boys with plastic keys to heaven to act as human minesweepers, thieving, and running the Iranian nation's economy into the ground. To that illustrious list, we can add the following: grooming some of the most slow-witted cyber propagandists in the world, including Yousef Bozorgmehr/Reza Esfandiari.

Have a nice day and talk to you later  :-)


Khashayarsha

Amir's litany of misinformation

by Khashayarsha on

 

Amir chooses two of the richest countries in Africa, Gabon and Botswana, who have small population and lots of oil and natural resources, and thinks he makes Iran look poor.

According to his statistics, both Botswana and Gabon are richer than not just Iran but also Turkey and Malaysia.

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_...

So, as ever, he is being deliberately misleading. 

The best way to deal with someone like Amir and his friends in Radio Farda and VOA is to arrest and put them on trial.

The people must have their justice and satisfaction.


Onlyiran

Kahshayar, Lets Go!!!

by Onlyiran on

I advise all Iranian-Americans to return to their homeland and enjoy the boom times.   I'm with you, man.  Book me a seat right next to yourself on the first flight out of here.  When are we leaving? 


AMIR1973

Iran's GDP per capita is behind Gabon & Botswana :-)

by AMIR1973 on

Check out the link below. The longer we continue this debate the more you embarrass yourself (and by extension, the rotten, murdering, thieving regime on whose behalf you propagandize--while living in the decadent West, of course  :-)

 

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita


Khashayarsha

Yes, really

by Khashayarsha on

 

You look at the United States and you see government bankruptcy, home repossession, insolvency, recession, unemployment, povertyand inequality.

It is only a matter of time before Iran overtakes the United States in GDP per capita and industrial production.

I advise all Iranian-Americans to return to their homeland and enjoy the boom times.


Onlyiran

Really Khashayar?!!

by Onlyiran on


Iran is a developed, modern and prosperous economy.

I assume that you meant to say this:

 Iran is a developed, modern [country with a ] prosperous economy.

Really?!! is that why its aircraft were just banned from flying to Europe?  Oh...wait...I forgot...it's the "man's" fault (please insert your choice of "man" here.  Your options are: the USA, the "West" and "Zionists").  31 years of glorious "independence" and the "man" is still holding them back from real progress.   


Khashayarsha

Iran is one of the rich countries

by Khashayarsha on

 

Take a look at this map of wealth in the world.

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Average_GDP_PPP_...

Iran is a developed, modern and prosperous economy.


Khashayarsha

Amir the shameless propagandist

by Khashayarsha on

 

It is obvious that he is a CIA-VOA-NED propagandist and mercenary. He probably makes good money from his work.

He takes 2008 data for Angola (when oil prices were peaking) and compares it with 2009 data for Iran (whenoil prices were in freefall).

Let us look at GDP (at PPP rate):

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_...

Iran is the 18th largest economy in the world, just behind Australia.

Angola is 62nd.

"Arab dar biaban" is not "poetry". It is just some stupid proverb. Remember that there are Iranian Arabs living in Khuzestan, Bushehr, Hormozgan and elsewhere. You slander them.

Yes "300" was a crappy, anti-Iranian movie. What it shows is that the West regards Iran as its enemy for the last 2500 years! And you want to support the Americans, Zionists and the British.