ISRAEL

No Fear

Just a couple of responses:

Be realistic. We are in a cold war with Israel and having two paramilitary on israel borders serves our interests more than not having them.

Who is we? I am not in a cold war and I don't believe Iran should be in a cold war. There is nothing to gain out of a cold war. It is pointless. What benefit do Iranian people get from it? How does it help Iran? 

Are you kidding? Maybe for you its a "thing", but for Iranians and the future of Iran is a BIG THING. This issue is not up for debate or discussion. Its our legal right to persue and advance our knowledge as far as we can.

No I am not. Nuclear energy is dirty and dangerous. Did you see Chernobyl? Do you want that to happen in Iran? In the US most progressive people oppose Nuclear energy. I am opposed to nuclear energy in Iran; in US and anywhere else. too. The "knowledge" of nuclear energy is 60+ years old. There is nothing to be learned from building reactors based on 60 year old designs. The real knowledge requires accelerators like the one in CERN. Those cost so much that all of Europe had to get together just to build one large super collider! The only way to do high energy physics research is through international collaboration and it does not require nuclear energy or refined uranium. It does require good relations.

As the most influential and powerful country in the middle east, we will help anyone at our discretion if it serves the interests of muslims in our neighboring countries or our own national interest. This is just common sense politic. 

Weren't these the same Palestinians who sided with Saddam? Is that so smart to be helping those who turned the guns on Iranian soldiers!! As for interest of Muslims I could not care less. I am an Iranian and not responsible for Muslims in other countries. 

The sanctions have not really affected our economy and some even think that it has helped us to become self sufficient.

If you really believe this then you are not living in the same world I am. I know people who would love to do business in Iran but cannot because of the sanctions. I know people who want to build factories in Iran but cannot because of the sanctions. Regarding trade China knows that Iran has no other place to go so they get to charge whatever they want. Why: because of the sanctions. The way to get a good deal it to have lots of different options. Sanctions reduce the choices to: China and maybe Russia. Without competition they can charge whatever they want. Plus what about things that are not available from China? Say why is it that Iran is unable to get spare parts for its aircraft?

VPK ...

Be realistic. We are in a cold war with Israel and having two paramilitary on israel borders serves our interests more than not having them. At couple hundred millions a year , they are fairly cheap too ( they cost the same as 10 fighter jets ). Besides, we have an ideological duty to support our shi'ite brothers in Lebanon ( this support and relationship is almost two hundred years old ).  Stop funding our loyal friends is giving up one of our strongest cards. Plus we will lose face in the muslim world. We will lose all our influence in the middle east if we follow your suggestion.

Stop meddling in Israel and Palestine

I am not aware of our meddling in Israel or palestine. We have declared that we will respect what palestinians decide for themselves. Hamas asked for our help. We did not go after them. As the most influential and powerful country in the middle east, we will help anyone at our discretion if it serves the interests of muslims in our neighboring countries or our own national interest. This is just common sense politic.

Stop the nuclear thing

Are you kidding? Maybe for you its a "thing", but for Iranians and the future of Iran is a BIG THING. This issue is not up for debate or discussion. Its our legal right to persue and advance our knowledge as far as we can. As i said, this issue is not up for discussion. I am sure the majority of Iranians support my stance here.

These are your carrots:

Removal of all sanctions and normalization of relations.

No big deal really. The sanctions have not really affected our economy and some even think that it has helped us to become self sufficient in different sectors. China is our biggest trading partner, Besides, Ahmadinejad was right when he said; " Those nations are sanctioning themselves , not iran" . That means they will not have access to our market to sell their products and get our oil money. There is always another country who will sell with or without sanctions. Sanctions are over rated. We are under sanction for 30 years already. Who gives a rats ass anymore?

Return of the 8 billion assets Carter froze with 30 years of interest

That money is gone. You can't get it back unless you do some serious bending over for US. They are not going to hand it to us just because we are friends now. They are already paying victims of terrorism with that money and have passed laws that will allow them to keep that money legally. You might want to re evaluate your friendship with US. They will take at will and there isn't a "thing" you can do about it. Are you still going to suck up to them?

Massive investment in renewable energy generation.

(Forget about renewable energy for now, just stick to our oil and gas sector for the sake of the arguement.)

This is some serious carrot, isn't it? No country will " massively " invest in another country if their " interests " are not met. Do you grasp this simple equation?

Currently, IR government oil and gas contracts are based on the buyback system which pays the investor with oil ( Not cash ). this makes the deals unattractive to foriegn investors since now they are obligated to purchase our oil. This is the best deal for Iran since we don't have to look for customers or worry about sanctions or the price of gas and etc. The investor has to buy our oil ( the same as we pay him with oil ). Do you see the benefit to a buyback system? 

Based on your saying, If you want "massive investment" in any sector, you have to drop your pants down somewhere. Nothing is free , you should know that. 

Favorable trade relations

Another weak arguement. First of all, they are not our main trade partners. They are really nobody. Secondly, international trade relations are so tainted with politics that even a country like Turkey which served as US and Nato faithful dog , still don't get " favorable trade relations". Boy ... you really are naive.

Israel's weapons ???

when will Israel ever join the NPT and open up their nuclear facilities to the IAEA and the rest of the world, oh stupid one?

Good nose AO!

Good nose AO!

A´DJAD AND KH CAN PROVOKE AS MUCH AS THEY WANT

NO ISRAELI STRIKE ON IRAN

NOT NOW

NOT LATER

but will take at least 5 yrs to be rid of the dictatorship 

I smell

a rat, and no, it's not "No Fear"!!

No Fear

First of all please do not equate IRR and Iran. They are not the same thing. 

Regarding the deal. In negotiations you try to maximize the benefits. The problem in getting a deal with US is the priorities. IRR could negotiate a very good deal for Iranian people. But that IRR does not want that. It prefers to meddle in affairs of Lebanon; Israel; Palestine and try to export its ideology. Instead of wanting to create jobs and trade for people it wants nuclear power and quite possible a bomb. The IRR could easily do this:

• Stop funding Hizbolah
• Stop funding hamas
• Stop meddling in Israel and Palestine
• Stop the nuclear thing

In return for:

• Removal of all sanctions and normalization of relations.
• Return of the 8 billion assets Carter froze with 30 years of interest.
• Massive investment in renewable energy generation.
• Favorable trade relations

Read my reply again ...

I thought i was clear in explaining that we never had a favourable deal brought to us by the west.

Its not about being cocky, its about not being stupid.

And about the deal offered during the war;

Iran had the upper hand during that time and Iraq needed re enfocement since Iran for the first time had captured iraqi territories. The arab league offered to pay all war expenses if Iran stop its advancement and agrees to cease fire. Iraq was playing for time here and the arab league which supported iraq during the war came up with this plan.

No guarantees were offered. No mention of how much are these expenses. Just to come to an agreement over the draft could have taken several months ( time needed for iraq to re enforce its positions ) and at the end, the arab league could have refuse to sign any draft for not being fair. Khomeini rightly understood the bluff and ignored the arab offer all together.

How naive can you be? How stupid would you have looked like that time , if you halted the advancement of your military to sit behind a table for an eventual negotiation failure several months later , only to face a stronger iraqi army? Besides, why wasn't this deal brought forward when iraq had the upper hand??  You are naive ...

VPK: No Fear i actually has

VPK: No Fear actually has much fear;hence, his/her handle.

His/her subsequent humanoid grunts indicate either a vampiric bloodlust or extreme fear....lol

Re: So Naive

Vildemose see what I said about getting cocky. No Fear just proved my point.

We hold all the top cards and the upper hand in most aspects of politics in the middle east.

This is the pride before the  fall. This is why there will not be a deal between IRR and the West. One success on 22 of Bahman and they are basking in false glory. The same thing that stopped Khomeini from accepting a very favorable deal in the war with Iraq. It is hubris and arrogance. 

So Naive ...

Would the IRI be willing to strike a deal knowing that the US cannot afford another war and the military option is off the table for the forseeble future?

Did US ever offered a decent deal to be made with "our" interest in mind?

Can you tell me of any decent propositions laid on the table for Iran to consider without jeopardizing our interests, by the west?

Some naive posters here are wishing for a deal between Iran and US hoping that will improve Iran's standing internationally. This false assumption was also shared by the reformist government of Khatami. The reformist made a disgusting offer of selling our rights to get closer to US. Suspending our enrichment cycles forever and allowing only 6 centifuses to spin for research purposes were one of the offers that the reformist ( Like your beloved Mousavi ) presented to the Swiss embassey as part of a grand bargain to normalise ties with the US. A shamefull act of treason!

We don't need to make deals anymore. Our rights are NOT up for discussions. When Ahmadinejad states that we need to have a " Jihadi" approach in our foreign policy, he is refering to having the Guts to stand up against these rotten deals laid on the table for us.

We hold all the top cards and the upper hand in most aspects of politics in the middle east. We are pursuing our nuclear technology legally and responsibly. We are doing our best to support our own industry under the imposed sanctions. This is what great nations do to become Great.

I Feel Your Concerns/Fears

We Iranians are going through much more real Pain than Israel is Seeing or experiencing at the Hands of this IRI and you need to focus on siding with us against US Maachiavellian policy for Iran.

In 1978 US policy by Carter was Regime Change in Iran, in Favor of Khomeini who they funded considerably.  US had lost control of Oil prices to a modern an independent Iran under the Shah, which the USA had a strong alliance with (so it was a betrayal).

This is the Key difference between 1979 and now.

Today Obama does not support regime Change nor will he for the next few years, which is why green movements impact has been so limited.  The US goal is and has always been to keep mullahs in power and negotiate with them when necessary.  31 years of weakening Iran has been a key US goal in order to control the regions tremendous resources absolutely.  So This is our mutual problem.

The Key for Israel to Remove the Fears you expressed Is Regime Change.  No amount of bombing will stop either the ability or possibility of IRI building Nuclear Weapons and Using them on Israel covertly.  At most you are talking of buying a maximum of 18 months time or maybe not depending on if this regime has been cunning or not.  Either way the Operation will be back in place, this time more secretively and therefore without the ability to bomb it. 

Obviously the UN and International community unlike the case of Iraq, which first invaded kuwait, would be forced to go after the agressor to be a relevant organization and this would strengthen Irans position, so obviously they are begging to be bombed and don't care about the thousands of Iranian casualties. 

This would be a mess as US world standing would sink even lower because it would have to protect it's ally Israel in the UN and be practically supporting a country that was responsible for killing the NPT and making it void.

At this point you'll see private companies all over the world able to compete and sell nuclear power kits to any country in the world since NPT would be void because a signatory just lost its rights under npt to enrich.  It is very doubtfull that there are long term legal ways to stop selling something perfectly legal all over the world, since no treaty would block the sale of nuclear tech (unless somehow a new one could be created, which would at this point be impossible considering how the last one was made void).

After being attacked how can Israel stop retaliation by Iran for the next xyz number of months on US forces?

So The USA will be forced to protect itself against Iran, until Iran stops firing missiles (likely to be never or until USA concedes Irans Right to Nukes, which would make the attack a disaster on the one hand) or on the other hand until the USA destroys the IRI. (this is the last thing the USA or EU want, with all their money and power they have done everything in their power to bring mullahs and keep them there in order to weaken Iran and against the will of mant Iranians.

The West is laughing today all the way to the bank 24 hours a day 7 days a week and even on holidays, 365 days a year for 31 years.  They win either way since Iran has lost it's leadership and everything with it in 1979.

On the one hand they have losers in power in Iran with machine guns over people heads running Iran into the ground and on the other hand you have Iranians wanting secular democracy /but ultimately serving a foreign agenda to dominate Iran. Both of these are dangerous for Israel since both will go nuclear and both are uncontainable.

Even a secular democracy can not control so many disenchanted people and a religous right all the time.  Lets not forget germany 1930's.  The only peaceful option is what was their before except less democratic until people evolve a little. 

A kind of Absolute Monarchy/Persian in Nature/ desiring peace with Israel since it was another absolute monarch king cyrus that restored Israel to Jerusalem in the first place.

Iranians and Israel ultimately would be friends with this one non democratic option because it part of persian tradition and history to have freedom of religion, peace, support and friendship with jews who we liberated and were always the friend of Iran.  This Islam srewed the monarchy as well as Iranian evolution towards democracy while remaining loyal to old friends.

I must say....

the author has some nerve bringing this subject among iranians on this site.

mr zionist, tell your jewish friends in israel, that they owe their existence to iran and its people!

had it not been for darius and the persian empire, you guys would have been exterminated by the babylonians!

so next time you're at the wailing wall, say a little prayer and thanks for all that iran has done for you and the rest of the jews.

having said that, I applaud that you want the mullahs gone- that is what every patriotic iranian wants and wishes for....so do all you can to aid the iranian people rid themselves of these vultures- no invasion necessary! 

IS THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION

//www.raceforiran.com/is-the-obama-administration-moving-closer-to-endorsing-regime-change-in-iran

VPK: Thank you so much for

VPK: Thank you so much for taking the time and for your insightful assessment.

Shoah denial? what about iraq denial?

we know that twelve million plus people six million of them jewish were murdered by nazis germany. who were set up to do so by U.S and great britain. so german science could be stolen. but why is okay to deny iraq, palestine and so on? why are israeli lives worth more than even american lives? why? let's see people do the truth on everything that has happen there. eps iraq.

grown ups?

grown ups lol u are slaves. as for antisemtic there arent many jews left in the world as real jews help people. stand up for others when know one will. rachel corrie was a jew murdered by zionists. a jew stood up 4 me once when know one would. the doomsday clock is ticking downwards the endtiners are getting what they've been planning 4 500 years. the third anti christs is alreay born into this world. he's coming for us all as unlike hilter he doesn't want too rule the world but wants to watch it burn. stand up and do the truth now everyone please!

truthseeker

Please keep the antisemitic rants to yourself. This is a discussion for grown-ups.

vildemose Jan

Would the IRI be willing to strike a deal knowing that the US cannot afford another war and the military option is off the table for the forseeble future?

I don't know. People tend to overplay their hands. If I were running IRI I would. It is definitely the wise move. But then if I were running IRI it would not be IRI. Now fresh from its 22 Bahman "victory" the IRI led by Khamenei and AN may get cocky. If they do then they won't strike a deal; miss their chance and get in trouble. A deal is made more difficult by the position than AN has painted himself into. He is not trusted. If Mousavi were president it would be a lot simpler. I don't see that happening.

There is another issue. Obama is under a lot of pressure to act "tough".  The US right wing wants to eat him alive. Therefore any deal would require good terms for the US. Plus Israel would have to be appeased. This makes a deal that is acceptable to both sides difficult. I would also not underestimate US military power. They don't need to occupy Iran. Instead they can simply occupy the Persian Gulf and oil regions to keep the oil going. That coupled with air power would be quite devastating.

And why would it be negative for the Green movement if a deal is reached??

In the short term the likely deal with marginalize the Greens. So it would weaken them. In the long term it may well give them the chance to organize. If so with the threat of US gone they may be able to work for a non violent change. 

In my opinion that may take a long time; until after Khamenei is gone. 

we all know what coming next...wake up!

all you zionist "jews" are just nazis who made it to hollywood. you are just so silly so stupid you just don't get it you've killed more people than cancer. let alone hilter. you have the say in U.S gov. the rape of iraq will be on your head and the blood of the dead will be on your hands the american and western public have had enough of you. everyone knows you put in your house boy obama so your could take him down or his family like jfk so iran and the kkk take the blame. and that's how you invade and attack iran. so you can steal their oil gas and technolgy and science that is about to overtake the west. then that zionist war criminal hillary can have her turn. the so-called credit crunch will be blamed on you. everything hilter said about you will now be believed by most. every woman and child raped or murdered by western forces will be blamed on you. your working for the same people who backed hilter knowing what he going to do. the endtimers own you they setting you up wake up! be a jew and tell the truth. be a jew and do the right thing. don't let this go down as cowboys and indians all over again. please!

VPK Jan: Thanks. Can I ask

VPK Jan: Thanks. Can I ask more questions???plz...

Would the IRI be willing to strike a deal knowing that the US cannot afford another war and the military option is off the table for the forseeble future?

And why would it be negative for the Green movement if a deal is reached??

vildemose

What is the liklihood of Obama adminstration striking a "grand bargain" with the mullahs?? Will the IRI be receptive to a grand baragin deal??

There is nothing Obama wants more. The problem is that if it fails and it is likey to  he will be hounded out of office and by the Republican party. 

How would a grand bargain will effect the democratic secular movement in Iran??

It won't help and will likely be very negative in the short them. The long term result may be better but it will take decades.

It won't be Israel attacking Iran it'll be US

Disclaimer: This is an analysis not an indication of my personal preferences.

It is not within Israel power to attack Iran without US permission. Therefore US is going to be involved. If Israel attacks Iran in any way US will be blamed. Therefore US may as well be involved. 

An attack on Iran would have to be swift and very powerful. It would need to neutralize not just the nuclear sites but all retaliation ability. That means neutralizing missiles; the navy in Persian Gulf; anti-ship devices; and any other IRR military forces. The only nation capable of this act is the US. 

Once US gets involved they might as well go all the way and remove the leadership. Otherwise they will leave a wounded and angry Islamic Republic. Is US able to do this? You bet. Will they? probably not yet. The US needs to mop up the Taliban first. Have you noticed the increased US attacks on Taliban? The US will probably try to topple the IRR without force first. If that does not work then it may well come to an attack. If it does it won't be Israel IRR has to face. It will be the whole might of the US.

VPK

Not to change the subject but I have a

few Questions:

What is the liklihood of Obama adminstration striking a "grand bargain" with the mullahs?? Will the IRI be receptive to a grand baragin deal??

How would a grand bargain will effect the democratic secular movement in Iran??

According to a report

According to a report issued by the Reut Institute:

“Israel is facing a dramatic assault on the very legitimacy of its existence as a Jewish and democratic state. Read the rest.

//www.hurryupharry.org/2010/02/14/restoring-israels-legitimacy/

Now,  the pro-IRI apologists should not gloat and start their hateful anti-semitic rants...I'm posting this here for the Author of this blog to get some perspective.

Fake poster, valid subject

Dear JJ, no one is in denial here. We are all aware of the dangers that are thretening the country. This post however reads like it is written by Shariatmadai of Kayhan. Aynak has raised some valid point in relation to this. Last week we had a blogger claiming to be an Ahvazi Arab Separatist, spreading the fear that a likely regime change in Iran may result in losing the Khuzistan to Arab separatist. That was fake too. I can not show you the rat but I can smell it. All these posts have one message " we need a strong central government, get behind IRI".

As with Israel, anyone who has listened to late Shah's interviews would know that the rivalry with Iran is not a new habit for Israelis. In the interview Shah complains that Israelis try to push too many people and complains about their monopoly on media. Israel is the closest ally of the West in the area and none have ever been our friends, simply because we have oil and they want it. As the sole nuclear state in the Middle East, Israel enjoys an unrivalled position. They encourage attacks on Iran if they feel that position threatened. It's not about hot air from AN or fear of wipe off, although that has helped them to build support for their anti-Iran policies. Now we have to find ways of making it difficult and hopefully impossible for them to ever materialise their wishes.

that´s what your A´djad and Kh are waiting for

NO WAY

by No Fear on Sun Feb 14, 2010 10:31 AM PST

 you can wait til you turn green for an Israeli attack 

nothing will happen  

What makes you think that your aggression will be unanswered?

While the majority of these exiled posters have chosen to use common sense when debating with you, we know very well that the only language that you speak is of brute force.

We know how to speak your language. An attack on Iran will bring your acharit hayamim in front of your eyes.

We have NO PROBLEM taking your war to the next level , until you watch in horror your beloved zionist soldiers drop dead by choking in their own blood.

We will witness the contamination of large areas of your holy land due to collapsed power plants near your cities filled with settlers.

We will observe how our brothers in Palestine and Lebonon once again rise up to your injustice and deliver the final blow to your statehood.

And these are the known responses which you are not prepared for.

We will enjoy international support while defending our country and become the leader among Muslims all around the world.

So please ...

Your threats might make a few people nervious here or there, but to us , you are the laughing stock on the block.

I can't say much more to

I can't say much more to this piece of warmongering trash, respectfully, then has already been said by many already , who I seldom agree with, but this is one issue that we are all strongly united and carry one voice only.

I call it trash because it is an article written to a mostly Iranians audience advocating having their home land bombed. Any one in the half-right mind knows that bombing will never be limited to just some N sites. Iran will retaliate harshly, Israel will retaliate back and what is left many thousand dead on both sides. IRI will come out stronger then currently and the warmongering regime in Israel will benefit from its warmongering behavior (look at Gaza)

So, my only advise to the author is, if you really want to have peace in middle east, start what Iranians have already started. Organize and revolt against your criminal regime just as Iranians are doing in Tehran and other cities. Maybe/hopefully one day soon, both regime will demise and peace is brought to Israel, Iran, Palestine and all over ME.

These two regime are two side of the same coin and this coin must be destroyed.

Mehrdad

Vildemose and Benross

Indeed well done and a good assessment. I would only like to add that if Iran ever attacked or counterattacked Israel (conventionally or with nuclear weapons, does not matter), such that Israel were about to be wiped off the map, Israel itself would take all of Iran down with it. Remember Israel "unofficially" has 200 nuclear warheads, which is way more than the number of large cities that Iran has.

It will not be pretty, and no matter how you look at it, this course we are on now does not have a good ending for Iran and Iranians. We must take back our country, and make it a place where all Iranians have a place under the law, and live side by side in peaceful coexistence and tolerance. We must also make it a place which is strong, will not be intimidated by anybody, and will not intimidate anybody. The Switzerland of the middle east (Switzerland has not had a war for 500 years- that is the future I want for Iran).

This is what we were supposed to get in 1979- Independence and Freedom. So let's get it.

-Fair