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Strikes, Sanctions and Scapegoats
10-Aug-2010
For the pundits, there are only two questions about U.S.-Iran relations that are of any importance: (1) Will Israel and/or the United States attack Iran? and (2) will the new sanctions have enough bite to persuade Iran to change its nuclear policy? Despite all the printers ink spilled on these two issues, the answers are an easy no and no.
Neither the United States nor Israel will take the military option off the table, thereby giving the pundits (and the crowd that is dying to repeat Iraq) latitude to keep the distant prospect of military action on the front pages, where it has been for years. As a lede, it sells columns and newspapers, so it will not go away. But as analysis it is either blinded by the momentary hype or else is simple wish fulfillment.
Uber-neocon John Bolton had it right. If any such attack were to occur, it would have been at the end of the Bush administration when there was nothing left to lose. Bolton thought it was so inevitable that he predicted it unequivocally in a Wall Street Journal column in 2008. Dick Cheney apparently agreed, judging from his subsequent statements of regret. So it is fair to say that George W. Bush, after looking the potential consequences, resisted the advice of his neocon advisers, his previously dominant vice president, and the reported direct request from the government of Israel — and rejected a strike. What is the likelihood that Barack Obama, with the same catastrophic scenario before him, will approve? Forget it.
Sanctions do not persuade dictatorial regimes to abandon projects that they think are central to their security and survival or even their self-image. Just look at Saddam Hussein. The international sanctions imposed on Iraq in the 1980s make the current Iran sanctions appear anemic in comparison. Every item that went in and out of Iraq was subject to approval by a UN committee dominated by a vindictive United States. Yet, although Iraq had abandoned its nuclear weapons program years earlier, Saddam could not bring himself to let his own people and his enemies know that. Instead he was prepared to gamble that the United States would not attack him.
One of the reasons for this bad bet was that he and his cronies were doing so well under the sanctions that there was no immediate necessity to come clean. They, after all, controlled the smuggling routes. And their henchmen managed the thriving and enormously lucrative black market. As for concern with their own people, a rotund Tariq Aziz, sitting with a fine Scotch and a Cuban cigar, informed a worried UN representative that it would be good for the Iraqi people to lose some weight. An Iraqi friend of mine told me at the time that the sanctions had made criminals of the entire Iraqi middle class, which had to resort to illegal behavior in order to survive. The biggest – and most successful – of this new criminal class was the privileged group immediately around Saddam Hussein.
Which brings us to Iran. The sanctions are more effective than many anticipated. They have built a web of financial restrictions and limitations around the already weak Iranian economy that is certain to cause significant problems for the leadership. Iran’s critical energy sector is particularly vulnerable. It is in a pincer. Because of cheap energy prices inside the country, artificially propped up by massive subsidies, energy demand is soaring. This siphons off a lot of Iran’s oil production, which would otherwise be sold on the world market for hard currency.
At the same time, because Iran’s oil fields are old and complex, they require modern technology to maintain production. That technology – and the capital investment that can only be provided by the major international oil companies – has been absent for many years. It was driven away partly by the sanctions, ironically assisted by Iran’s own short-sighted negotiating tactics that offered only the most meager profit margins to outside investors. As a result, Iran’s oil production is in decline at the same time that more and more of it is being soaked up by domestic consumption. In a period of relatively low oil prices, this means that Iran’s hard currency earnings are drying up at an alarming rate.
This unenviable economic situation is compounded by what has to be described as perhaps the least competent economic management team of any major country in the world. Ayatollah Khamene`i, the Supreme Leader, seems totally preoccupied with bolstering his own shaky political legitimacy by pandering to the Revolutionary Guards who surround and protect him. The result is corruption on a scale beyond anything the shah’s regime could have imagined.
President Ahmadinejad, also a creature of the Revolutionary Guards, is free to indulge his taste for outlandish and irresponsible rhetoric. His words keep the international and domestic spotlight glued to him; but the effect drives away prospective investors and facilitates the U.S. drive to enlist international support for sanctions against Iran. An American Jewish leader once joked with me that he suspected Ahmadinejad was a Mossad agent: no one, he observed, had been more helpful in promoting donations to Israel and Israeli causes. At the same time, under his leadership Iran has inflation and unemployment that are both in double digits.
But to be fair, Ahmadinejad is the first politician in modern Iranian history willing to address the “third rail” of Iranian politics – the immensely costly subsidies on food and energy. His initial efforts to reduce the amount of subsidized gasoline that Iranians could use met with outbursts of indignation, including torching filling stations. But these rules now seem to be grudgingly accepted and have eased slightly Iran’s energy dilemma. He is now addressing the low tax rates assessed against merchants. This has also resulted in outrage, including closing the bazaars in Iran and other major cities. But his campaign seems to be making progress.
These are needed reforms that would be recommended by any responsible economic overseer, including the International Monetary Fund. Ahmadinejad attempts to balance his daring assaults on the entrenched economic interests by his belligerent rhetoric, always casting himself as the champion of the little guy. In that he resembles his populist predecessors, from Juan Peron to Huey Long to Hugo Chavez. Ahmadinejad takes on America and Israel the way Governor Long took on Standard Oil. But like other populists, Ahmadinejad is the prisoner of his own eccentric view of the world and his loyalty to lieutenants who may or may not be worthy of his faith in them.
The key question about Iran today is not whether it will be attacked or collapse under sanctions. It is whether Iran is capable under its present leadership to take a sober decision about how to deal with the outside world. The Revolutionary Guards have established a dominant position in Iran’s military, its economy, and its politics. Iran increasingly comes to resemble the corporatist states of southern and eastern Europe in the 1920s and ‘30s that we call fascist. Iran is conducting an interior battle with its own demons, from the millenarians on the far right who choose to believe that Khamene`i is the personal representative of God on earth, to the pragmatic conservatives who simply want a more responsible leadership, to the reformists of the Green movement whose objective is to put the “republic” back into the Islamic Republic by giving the people a greater voice.
This is a yeasty and unpredictable mix. No one knows what is going to happen next.
And this is the reality that the Obama administration must deal with. The danger is not that the administration will back the wrong horse in Iran. The real danger is that the Obama administration will be so preoccupied with domestic American politics and its constant demand to look tough when dealing with Iran that it will inadvertently rescue this cruel but hapless regime from its own ineptitude by providing a convenient scapegoat for everything that goes wrong in Iran.
First published in Gary Sick's blog. Sick is a senior research scholar at SIPA's Middle East Institute, and an adjunct professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. Hes erved on the National Security Council under Presidents Ford, Carter, and Reagan.
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Oktaby-e Aziz, I respectfully Agree with you!!!
by mehdi2009 on Wed Aug 11, 2010 01:03 PM PDTOktaby-e Aziz,
I have to agree to your wonderful Logic. I always give any one the benefit of the doubt, however I have to agree that you are 100% correct in your assertions regarding the Delusional Phony Sargord.
Hoshang and Hamsade Ghadimi-e Aziz,
Thank you for your thoughtful comments. As I have mentioned before in 1980 I was 22 and an idealist Iranian starting Graduate School When the Semitic/Arab Hordes attacked Iran, and I felt that I had to go and do something. I say it again that I am no hero (All the heroes died on the battlefield), however when a PHONY APOLOGIST/AGITAOR/AGENT PROVOCATUER of the Mullah's Murderous Regime constantly makes Stupid, Irrelevant and Ignorant remarks about Iran while being the utmost ANTI-IRANIAN, then someone who was there has to let the REAL IRANIANS know the truth.
Salutations to ALL the True Sons and Daughters of Iran.
Mehdi2009
Mehdi jan don't let these fake, cowardly
by Hoshang Targol on Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:41 PM PDTobtuse morons get under your skin. I just read about your experience on the front. Our people and our culture are alive becuase of the sacrifices you and people like you have made. Live long and prosper.
As another Mehdi ( Mehdi Akhavan Sales- Mim-Omid) used to say:
دمت گرم و سرت خوش باد ! If you could get your hand on some Bahram Sadeghi stories take a look at them you'll see what I mean! and have a great day.mehdi, that was a
by hamsade ghadimi on Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:29 PM PDTmehdi, that was a well-rounded kick in the butt to the attention-seeking officer-impersonating self-appointed propogandist for the iri regime. it's a sad thing that you and others like you had to witness the atrocities of war, become injured or die. to add salt to the wound, you have to listen to drivel of this imposter in uniform.
oktaby, to add to tahgord's resume, he and his family used to live in the neighborhood of "gheytaneh." according to him, it's the english translation for "gheytarieh." :)
mehdi2009, I respectfully disagree
by oktaby on Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:15 PM PDTSp is as delusional as he ever was. I don't believe it is even possible for him to get more so without being committed.
OKtaby
P.S.: I do understand that he may be writing from a lunatic asylum but we don't know that for a fact. His Ghajar uncle, Pahlavi Grandpa & UK royal khaleh can shed light on this.
Phony Sargord is becoming more delusional by the day
by mehdi2009 on Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:27 PM PDTDear fellow Iranians,
Hoshang and Anonymouse put it very well about this phony character, and I have to add that although his delusional comments are great comedy, however sometimes it goes well beyond the parallel universe where he resides. To use the correct Terminalogy that the IRGC are the Goon Storm Troopers, and the Bassij are their Goon Junior Shock Troops. Therefore, to say that they are not associated shows the total and utter ignorance of this individual.
First of all Khamenie's Malijak, "Ahmadinejad" was a coward during the war, and this has been well documented, and the IRGC veterans with the knowledge of this fact were sent to their grave on 2 flights over South Tehran and Rezaieyeh were the Falcon Jets Carrying them mysteriously malfunctioned and crashed during his first term.
Since Phony Sargord plays with Toy Soldiers and Video war games he has no clue that during a real battle the first time you see action for every one is very tough and you have to get used to it. As we were all young men in our early twenties during those times we were scared when first shells exploded around us, and those of us who were lucky enough to survive knew who were the cowards among us, just like Phony Sargord's hero Ahmadinejad who was the biggest coward and after getting close to 5 KM from the combat he never returned. As you know during the war HALVA PAKHSH NEMIKONAN (For Phony Sargord who does not speak Farsi that means they don't distribute Sweets during the war).
As for Ahmadinejad working for Israel, all can be said is that every time Israel Defense Force (IDF) makes one of their numerous incursions into Gaza Strip and pound the place mercilessly and World Community is ready to Harshly Condemn their actions, Ahmadinejad makes one of his absurd and Asinine comments about Wiping them off the map and takes the Heat off of them and sends the whole issue of Israeli Condemnation to the background. Many Israeli Officials and Intelligence Experts have said on many occasions that this Clown has been the Heaven's present to the State of Israel. Who can blame them for feeling so Giddy?
Salutations to ALL the True Sons and Daughters of Iran.
Mehdi2009
Don't be so hard on "Sargord," he's my best comic relief in here
by Hoshang Targol on Wed Aug 11, 2010 10:31 AM PDThe consistently sounds like one of those characters out of a Bahram Sadgeghy's stories( just out of it, and not giving a hoot!), and his avatar, now that's priceless, ( in an absurd way!), you've got to admit, he's very especial!
P.S. Check out Sepah's zines and their lit, for a history of Basij thugs. During the Iran-Iraq War there was no basij. They had informal milita squads. After the war they began organizing these thugs formally as Basij to confront urban protests.
Sargord ur "Israeli cookies" infection is spreading to ur brain!
by Anonymouse on Wed Aug 11, 2010 10:29 AM PDTEverything is sacred
It's inaccurate to describe
by Sargord Pirouz on Wed Aug 11, 2010 10:26 AM PDTIt's inaccurate to describe the origins and organization of the Basij during the war as a "subsidiary" of the IRGC.
Sometimes I use the analogy of the ANG and US Army to describe the relationship, but this analogy has its limitations.
The fact is the Basij was/is different than the IRGC, and the statement in this post is (probably) deliberately misleading, or at the very least seeks to conflate the two for the purpose of conforming to the content.
Sargord more mozakhraf from you? Basij is a subsidiary of IRGC.
by Anonymouse on Wed Aug 11, 2010 10:10 AM PDTEverything is sacred
Anon, during the war he
by Sargord Pirouz on Wed Aug 11, 2010 10:07 AM PDTAnon, during the war he served with the Basij, not the IRGC.
Ahmadinejad, also a "creature" of the Revolutionary Guards
by Anonymouse on Wed Aug 11, 2010 10:02 AM PDTPresident Ahmadinejad, also a creature of the Revolutionary Guards, is free to indulge his taste for outlandish and irresponsible rhetoric.
He came through the ranks with the same corruption that is IRGC culture. Be it a company or a person.
Everything is sacred
wow.....
by shushtari on Wed Aug 11, 2010 09:57 AM PDTsicko now thinks that the akhoonds are a 'hapless and cruel' regime!
what happened, did the angel of death visit you in your dreams?!
as far as iranians are concerned, you have as much blood on your hand as your idiot boss- carter, along with brzensyki and all the other morons in your cabinet.
you are the ones who thought khomeini was an angel or a ghandi like figure!!!!
it's gonna a take a lot more repentance for you buddy to save you from the depth of hell and joining your ghandi khomeini....
the brave souls of gen rahimi, badrei, khosrowdad, jahanbani, and all the other wonderful patriots who were murdered by your tool will have their peace soon
Aynak jaan, from those two theories, my bet is on number one
by Bavafa on Wed Aug 11, 2010 09:43 AM PDTIndeed no other head of state in Iran history has helped eZrael cause as much
Mehrdad
Ananymouse
by aynak on Wed Aug 11, 2010 08:46 AM PDT"Ahmadi is definately a Mossad agent who has filled the Zionists
pockets. He is also taking credit for economic plans that Khatami has
made for example the Petrochemical refineries and plants. Ahmadi has
only started 2 such plants when he is taking credit for dozens that
were delivered to him at the beginning of his administration."
I have two theories on Ahmadi-Nejad:
1-He is an implant (spy) as you state. He has served the interest of Israel, like no Israeli leader in recent time has!
2-He is a psychopath, and one day he will come out saying he is the missing Medhdi.
(the outcome is the same for Iranian people).
But I could say, no other Iranian head of state since Nasserdin Shah, has been as devestating for Iran as Ahmadi-Nejad/Khamanee combo. My theory on the Khamanaee is, after the bombing when he lost his hand he is so drugged up, that he is incpable of clear thinking.
Good analysis. Sargord with his usual mozakhrafs!
by Anonymouse on Wed Aug 11, 2010 06:13 AM PDTIt seems like a comprehensive analysis to me. The so called reforms that Ahmadi is undertaking have made "some" progress. Nothing to write home about. He is basically taking some spending money from people who have little or no spending money to begin with.
When you're shackled with rampant inflation and unemployment and now only domestic investments, paying more taxes is just another hardship "taxed" on people when Govt is distributing the oil money that is Govt owned and tax free.
Ahmadi is definately a Mossad agent who has filled the Zionists pockets. He is also taking credit for economic plans that Khatami has made for example the Petrochemical refineries and plants. Ahmadi has only started 2 such plants when he is taking credit for dozens that were delivered to him at the beginning of his administration.
All and all he has done nothing but to damage Iran with the help of Khamenei who as you said has one leg in the grave and worried about his legacy and how he dies. Just like Shah when he found out he had cancer and didn't care anymore. While a lot happened to make the revolution happen, Shah's terminal cancer was the last nail in the coffin.
Everything is sacred
Sick, like Slavin, has
by Sargord Pirouz on Wed Aug 11, 2010 04:59 AM PDTSick, like Slavin, has become a political partisan in his reporting on Iran. Both should return to school and take refresher courses on basic journalism.
Totally Agree
by Cost-of-Progress on Wed Aug 11, 2010 04:55 AM PDTbut also agree that this is nothing new.
Meanwhile, let's just pretend that everything is honky dori; Iran is strong and America is afraid of its military might (overpriced junk from North Korea) and repainted F4 fighters left over from the big bad Shah's era.
Once again, it is the people who need to break the shackles. Do they have the will to do that?
____________
IRAN FIRST
____________
aynak and Sicko...
by Boomerang on Wed Aug 11, 2010 02:50 PM PDTI couldn't agree with you more, aynak. This weasel Carter reject seems to be saying early on that there's no way Obama will attack Iran and then he closes by saying he fears that Obama will provide the IRI with a convenient "scapegoat" and rescue the "hapless and cruel regime."
Hey, Sicko, get your shit together or shut the hell up. And by the way, it was YOU and YOUR FORMER BOSS who helped put this "hapless and cruel regime" in power. Yes, you. No one has forgotten Huyser's mission in Iran. Had the imperial army not declared its neutrality, the mullahs would've had to come to the table and negotiate a truce with Bakhtiar. Has there been anything more incompetent in Western Civilization in the last 50 years than the Carter Administration? Yes, possibly one, the Obama Administration.
Hey, Sicko, do us Iranians all a favor and just GO AWAY!!!!!!!!!!! Are you too long in the tooth to change course and become an "expert" on Uganda?
Iran is a prisoner of IRI
hmmm, puzzling to me, what is Gary hinting at?
by aynak on Tue Aug 10, 2010 03:53 PM PDTEarly in the article:
"Uber-neocon John Bolton had it right. If any such attack were to occur,
it would have been at the end of the Bush administration when there was
nothing left to lose. Bolton thought it was so inevitable that he
predicted it unequivocally in a Wall Street Journal column in 2008.
Dick Cheney apparently agreed, judging from his subsequent statements
of regret. So it is fair to say that George W. Bush, after looking the
potential consequences, resisted the advice of his neocon advisers, his
previously dominant vice president, and the reported direct request
from the government of Israel — and rejected a strike. What is the
likelihood that Barack Obama, with the same catastrophic scenario
before him, will approve? Forget it."
In closing he remarks:
" The danger is not that the administration will back the wrong horse in
Iran. The real danger is that the Obama administration will be so
preoccupied with domestic American politics and its constant demand to
look tough when dealing with Iran that it will inadvertently rescue
this cruel but hapless regime from its own ineptitude by providing a
convenient scapegoat for everything that goes wrong in Iran."
Based on first pargraph, it seems Gary is convinced U.S (under Obama) will not attack Iran militarily. After all, if even 'W' did not buy Cheney/Bolton plan, why would Obama? So his answer to both questions of possibility of militay strike and effectiveness of sanctions is an unequivocal No and No.
In closing Gary is fearing a knee jerk (or may be a plan that is already underway?) by Obama to show he is tough for domestic politics and the constant pressure it is putting on him to look tough on Iran.
So it won't be a military strike, but it would be an action that would divert the attention of people of Iran from the regime to the scapegoat?! Common Gary, if you want to say something say it.
This unenviable economic
by vildemose on Tue Aug 10, 2010 03:26 PM PDTThis unenviable economic situation is compounded by what has to be described as perhaps the least competent economic management team of any major country in the world. Ayatollah Khamene`i, the Supreme Leader, seems totally preoccupied with bolstering his own shaky political legitimacy by pandering to the Revolutionary Guards who surround and protect him. The result is corruption on a scale beyond anything the shah’s regime could have imagined.
The key question about Iran today is not whether it will be attacked or collapse under sanctions. It is whether Iran is capable under its present leadership to take a sober decision about how to deal with the outside world.
The Revolutionary Guards have established a dominant position in Iran’s military, its economy, and its politics. Iran increasingly comes to resemble the corporatist states of southern and eastern Europe in the 1920s and ‘30s that we call fascist.
Iran is conducting an interior battle with its own demons, from the millenarians on the far right who choose to believe that Khamene`i is the personal representative of God on earth, to the pragmatic conservatives who simply want a more responsible leadership, to the reformists of the Green movement whose objective is to put the “republic” back into the Islamic Republic by giving the people a greater voice.
Indeed...!
nothing new
by Hamed on Tue Aug 10, 2010 03:02 PM PDTWell written but wordy article, nothing new to report, everything said was old news. I will not however, compare iraq under Saddam with present Iran, under sanctions. Two completely different world. The question is what is going to hapen next professor, please use your wisdom and education and based on past events and current situation try to project few viable scenarios.