Misc

Fair Jan

OK … let me just set the record straight about your comments.

First of all Iran losing 1 m. people was not because of us overestimating ourselves. It was because
1- Iran was in war with almost everybody … 40% of France’s military sales went to Iraq, Russians sold them MIGs, Swedes canons from Bofors, US provided them with satellite pics, chemical agents (remember Halabche??? … Kuwait was the single largest loan giver to Saddam … solders from Egypt, Jordan, Saudi were all fighting against Iran.

Shall go on and give you the complete list?

2- Iran was under embargo… nowhere to turn to buy weapons
3- A total chaos (not before three weeks after the Iraqi invasion, Iranian army was mobilized)
4- Iranian armed forces were totally designed to be depended on a their big brother (US), for supply, upgrading, strategy, intel etc.

Want me to go on?

And by the way … Iran DOES have AWACS (4 of them) … Russian built… but of course many would say those are crap … so .. well….

As far as the aircraft produced, please read my previous comments. Just to indulge your curiously check out Shafaq and Murgh Aushra …

Iran now builds its own subs. Not only Kilo class but lighter and sonar evasive subs in different sizes as well as corvettes etc. (there are video footages … just search different sites that talk about military developments in different countires)

No one is calming that Iran’s military is a match for the US. And if anyone did… they would be living in the lala land….BUT… the fact is that by projecting power (no matter of how small) and determination, it makes a war unfeasible for the enemy. So yes… there may be bluffing (as I am sure there are) but that is all part of the defense strategy.

300 Years

Iran has not attached any country in 300 years.  Any war will be a hostility by other countries toward it and Iran has every right to protect and defend itself. May none of us see that day. 

DJ

Don't under estimate Iran

Don't under estimate Iran's ability to defend the country. Iranian Navy and armed forces are able to launch a huge asymmetric warfare against the enemy. it's not as important what kind of hardware you have ( a mistake done by the neighboring countries, for the west to sell them arms) but what you need to fight a war fit for your geography. Iran Military is fit for its terrain and has made weapons based on the wars that they think they need and will be fighting rather than what's on the market. That is an important point about the Iranian military.

It's an Iranian way of fighting, historically: 

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asymmetric_warfare 

And now:

//www.theatlantic.com/doc/200810u/kaplan-iran...

//www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2548 

Iran has no chance

Like JJ said, these fine young men will fight bravely, and give their lives for their country. It is their government that does not care for their sacrifice.
It is the Iranian forces, not the US Navy/Air Force/Marine Corps who are the sitting ducks. All Iranian assets are old and easily detectable. Your assessment of Russian technology is irrelevant, first of all Iran has no Su-27's and even if it did, without a sophisticated airborne command and early warning system like AWACS they would be useless anyway. The US can see Iranian planes from the moment they take off. Not to mention all airfields of those planes would be completely gone in the first 10 minutes anyway. And in the first 20 minutes, all Iranian naval bases would be smashed completely, and any vessels remaining at sea would be quickly picked up and sunk, including your 40 year old used kilos. This is not, repeat NOT 1980 when the Iranian forces pummelled the Iraqi navy in one battle with combined air and sea operations with superior weapons, training , and people. This is a slaughter.
Iran may get a few Chinese made C-802 cruise missiles off targeting a few American ships, but they will be quickly detected and defeated. The only real threat Iran can pose is its rocket force with Shahabs and shorter range rockets, but with something like a 500 kg warhead, they can do very little damage to anything military. They can launch them into population centers and barracks to claim they got something. But that is assuming they are not destroyed on the ground first, and their launch doesn't need to be photoshopped.

Furthermore, you claim Iran is going towards domestic fighter production. They have been bragging about this for years, but can you please show us just ONE example of an Iranian fighter produced ever. EVER. And I don't mean a rebuilt F-5, which is already obsolete for 20 years now and whose major overhaul facilities already existed in Iran 30 years ago.

Ladies and gentlemen, we Iranians have already paid too much a price for overestimating our capabilities. We lost 1 million people, and 8 years, i.e. an entire generation for this madness. We should be thinking of ways to better our economic and social situation, not pick fights with the greatest military power in history, thinking we can win because they are sitting ducks. We do so at our own peril. And of course the price as always will be paid who had nothing to do with these crazy policies- the civilians in Iran.

-FAIR

Kurush jan you are right … very right.

The fact is that Iran is very busy to create an industrial base (particularly military) that no other country in the region possess. It gives Iran several advantages, among the secrecy in terms of the number of their homegrown hardware (number of jets, tanks, missiles etc.) .

I know that many laugh at Iran’s reversed engineered jets, tanks and choppers, but the fact is that copying an aircraft is not copying an ‘Aftabe!
The saeqe which many dismiss as a copy of an bomber developed in the 60s (F-5) was just a stepping stone. The stealth technology does exist in Iran, 4-5 generation aircrafts are not far away. The jump from reproducing almost all parts of the Tomcat (F-14) upgrading its avionics, being able to fire a tomahawk from the F-14 … to rolling out a brand new F-5, all under the manufacturer’s embargo and in lieu of relatively very small defense budget - is not chicken shit

Just one comment. The reason Iran did not buy SU 27 and SU30 had to do with strategic decisionmaking. The IIRAF (Air force) main strategy is defensive. Second, instead of pouring billions of dollars into jets that the country would become totally dependent for service and upgrading, Iran has gone its own way, developing its own aircrafts, digging out old blue prints from the Shah’s time (F-17) and blowing life into them.

As far as the Russian technology, the SU 35 is an amazing aircraft bordering aerodynamics that is almost alien!!! There are video clips on youtube that I am sure you know of. I am not even going to talk about the air defense systems such as S300 and S400.

Liked your last comment …

I bet they didn't see this coming ...

In war, it is not always the hardware that matters. It is about adapting one's weakness to strength and vice versa.

Just read these few paragraphs.

WAR GAMES DESTROY MYTH OF U.S. NAVAL INVULNERABILITY

NEWS BRIEF: "Myth Of US Invincibility Floats In The Persian Gulf", Rense.com, 4-16-2005

"During the summer of 2002, in the run-up to President Bush's invasion of Iraq, the US military staged the most elaborate and expensive war games ever conceived. Operation Millennium Challenge, as it was called, cost some $250 million, and required two years of planning ... it was set in the Persian Gulf, and simulated a conflict with a hypothetical rogue state. The "war" involved heavy use of computers, and was also played out in the field by 13,500 US troops, at 17 different locations and 9 live-force training sites. All of the services participated under a single joint command, known as JOINTFOR. The US forces were designated as 'Force Blue', and the enemy as OPFOR, or 'Force Red'. The 'war' lasted three weeks and ended with the overthrow of the dictatorial regime on August 15."

"At any rate, that was the official outcome. What actually happened was quite different, and ought to serve up a warning about the grave peril the world will face if the US should become embroiled in a widening conflict in the region ..."

This is not the first time that the American high command has fudged the results of a war gaming exercise because the real results would be very embarrassing to all U.S. leadership, from the White House down to the Pentagon. In the early years of the Clinton Administration, America's top guns -- her elite fighter pilots -- engaged in an war gaming exercise with Israeli pilots. The American aces were humiliated, so much so that the Pentagon discreetly asked the Israeli government not to publicize the results! The story I read was very small and buried deeply in our local paper.

Now, let us return to this news story. The American officer leading the "enemy" -- the "Force Red" team -- was "the straight-talking Marine commander who had been brought out of retirement to lead Force Red. His name was Lt. Gen. Paul Van Riper, and he had played the role of the crazed but cunning leader of the hypothetical rogue state ... In the first days of the 'war', Van Riper's Force Red sent most of the US fleet to the bottom of the Persian Gulf." (Ibid.)

The tactics adopted by this Marine Corps general were astounding and they produced "The Worst US Naval Disaster Since Pearl Harbor".

"The war game was described as 'free play', meaning that both sides were unconstrained, free to pursue any tactic in the book of war in the service of victory ... Much of the action was computer-generated. But representative military units in the field also acted out the various moves and countermoves. The comparison to a chess match is not inaccurate. The vastly superior US armada consisted of the standard carrier battle group with its full supporting cast of ships and planes. Van Riper had at his disposal a much weaker flotilla of smaller vessels, many of them civilian craft, and numerous assets typical of a Third World country." (Ibid.)

"But Van Riper made the most of weakness. Instead of trying to compete directly with Force Blue, he utilized ingenious low-tech alternatives. Crucially, he prevented the stronger US force from eavesdropping on his communications by foregoing the use of radio transmissions. Van Riper relied on couriers instead to stay in touch with his field officers ... At every turn, the wily Van Riper did the unexpected. And in the process he managed to achieve an asymmetric advantage ... Astutely and very covertly, Van Riper armed his civilian marine craft and deployed them near the US fleet, which never expected an attack from small pleasure boats ... Force Red's prop-driven aircraft suddenly were swarming around the US warships, making Kamikaze dives. Some of the pleasure boats made suicide attacks. Others fired Silkworm cruise missiles from close range, and sunk a carrier, the largest ship in the US fleet, along with two helicopter-carriers loaded with marines ... the Navy was unprepared. When it was over, most of the US fleet had been destroyed. Sixteen US warships lay on the bottom, and the rest were in disarray. Thousands of American sailors were dead, dying, or wounded.

"If the games had been real, it would have been the worst US naval defeat since Pearl Harbor." (Ibid.)

the whole document is availble at:
//www.cuttingedge.org/News/n2026.cfm

(and please ignore the author's religious gagaguya).

Hope no more war would comes our country's way again.

JJ- The Number is 3

They own 3 Kilo class submarines. The rest of the equipment is just as antiquated. They still use at least one 1940's vintage U.S. built ship and their three destroyers are 1960's vintage. Here's the Wikipedia page on the Iranian Navy:

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Navy

All their hoopla about building ships, submarine and missles (complete with their Arabic names) are for domestic consumption to fool the 70 million people that they have been feeding propoganda for the past 30 years. All the useless junk that they "build" inside Iran are cheap copies of other useless North Korean and Chinese junks that any modern navy will blow out of the water in five minutes.

I disagree...

The Iranians in North America are under great duress and intense US propaganda. Not any fault of their own, but they fall into the trap of subscribing to the US version of the scheme-of-things which is rather onesided, if not hollow. The reference to Russian technology which is always termed disparagingly is an example which one notices on this page also. The analysts at the US defense and intelligence agencies know better that the Russian military technolgy is second to none. Last time someone made that mistake and paid for it dearly was Hitler. Hitler is known to have said before the start of BARBAROSSA, and I paraphrase, all we have to do is to kick the door open and the whole rotten structure will curmble. He was referrig to the Soviet Union. Partially, he was right. In the first few weeks of the war, June thru August, 1941, the Soviets lost 3 million soldiers, 3 thousand tanks, 3 thousand fighter planes. The western allies had written off the Soviets and were making contingency plans to destroy oil fields of the Caucassus. Stalin was in a state of shock and disappeared for several days. He finally collected himself and called Zhukov, Chief of Soviets Staff, and said to him in a trembling voice, commrad I speak to you not as your leader but as your fellow commrad tell me truthfully if we stand a chance. Zhukhov assured him that the war had just begun and steadied Stalin. It came as sever shock to the German panzers to come across T-34 and the heavy KV Tanks. A single KV Tank astride a main highway heroically held up several divisions of the vaunted Wehrmacht for several days! In August 1941, Hitler went on the German Radio to address the German people. He declared in a humble voice...up to now I was held back but now I can tell you, the German people, that we have vanquished our enemy. He was basically saying to the German people 'mission accomplished.' But of course all that was to change. The biggest military defeat mutated into the biggest military victory for the Russians. Today the Su-27 flankers and their variants run circles around F-15. The vaunted F-22 performed miserably against the Typhoon Eurofighter in military excercises. With a 200 million price tag, that is a shame! Russians would have been more than glad to sell the Flankers to Iran. Somewhat mysteriously, the Iraninas have, in my view, unwisely, turned down the offer, although they have bought less potent Su-24 and Mig-29. These is a case to be made for the Kilo, by all means not a frontline Russian sub, in numbers they are truely formidable, and armed potently. Iran is making breakthrough in aviation technology. My reading of defense publications indicates that Iran is going for advanced native fighters and this news should hearten any Iranian who cares for Iran. This is noteworthy, because even the Europeans ceased to have go-it-alone policy with regards to fighter technology which is very expensive, and the Eurofighter air superiority fighter is the product of several EU countries. This may be what has rattled the West more than anything else, even the nuclear warheads. An Iran armed with 4th and 5th generation air sueriority fighters, home-grown for that and in numbers, is a true nightmare scenario for the West. Food for thought, US has never fought and won a major military power by itself. It preferrs to have major partners guarding its flanks. Go figure! I will not write Iran off anytime soon.

Iran's military

With any country besides the US, is mighty and powerful. Against the super power, Iran's strategy would be to sink a few US ships, that's about it. Iran would hope to win the PR and anti war movement of US public after that. So winning a war is different for different parties. From Iran's perspective, it's a high moral win if it can damage US ships, which by different warfare and hti and run strategy, they might be able to pull it off. It is true that US does have weaknesses, and in a war both parties focus on those weaknesses to cause the most damage.

My turn

America can attack and destroy in short term. In long term will lose and run away.

How much America is spending on military? Where is the money coming from? From many of you tax payers. I think I said enough. Now get a life.

Let's be realistic! This is all propaganda! IRI is volnurable!

Okay, let's be realistic!

Is a military attack against Iran going to be a dangerous and messy affair for the Americans or any other foreign powers? Yes, for sure.

But to think that Iran's naval forces can stand up to or possibly repel an attack from a super power like the United States is not only naive but it's also dumb!

The majority of Iran's larger surface vessels are 40+ years old. The destroyers are in fact American surplus ships from the era between WWII and the Korean War (the late 1940's and early 1950's). For example, Iran has 2 diesel powered used Russian built submarines (and reportedly added a third one recently) . In the best possible shape, these subs are so unbelievably easy to destro for Americans. But it just happens that only 1 of these subs are in full operational status and many problems including electrical issues have been reported for these subs since the start of their service for Iranian Navy.

One of the areas of strength for Iran is the use of large numbers of speed boats and individually-manned submarines (minisubs) to try and overwhelm American battle groups with hundreds of boats coming at them. This strategy is analogous to ants attacking a large animal. But at the end of the day, a modern naval vessel can use a large array of weaponry to destroy these boats.

Another item to mention is the threat of closing the Straight of Hormuz. Everyone knows that Iran can try to close the straight and it may even succeed for a number of days. But with the critical importance of this waterway for the whole world, how long do you think the Iranian defenders can hold back the might of several world class naval powers who will undoubtedly rain such a world of hurt on anyone trying to keep that straight close?!

One of the most effective tools in IRI hands in case of a war against US, Israel or NATO allies is the use of proxy terror groups to attack their interests and territories (example: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, etc.) But inspite of being fearful of such prospects, the world powers know that these terror groups can sustain their pressure and attacks for a limited length of time, especially if their source of money and resupply (Iran) is itself under attacka nd unable to resupply them!  At the end of the initial flare up period, they will have to look out for their own interests and settle back into arrangements and positions that guarantee their own survival against their own direct enemies and adversaries. Otherwords, as the old Persian proverb goes, they will run a fever for Tehran's mullahs but they won't die for them! The Hezbollah and Hamas or any other group will, at the end of the day, have to watch out for their own interests and will not risk it all to help Tehran's mullahs!

So, I think all of this nationalistic talk about Iran's military might is for domestic consumption of common man watching the IRI TV. You, me and everyone else knows full well that the last thing we want to do is to see if a war between Iran and America or a combination of world powers. The outcome will not be pretty or pleasant for anyone involved and certainly not for Iranans!

Everyone should concentrate on peace and negotiations not war and destruction!   Especially before the US is safely out of it's current commitments in Iraq and before the current economic problems in the West are resolved (and they will be). Otherwise the IRI will find itself in a much more fragile situation!

Underestimating Iran's coastal defenses?

Kurush, I didn't say these men and the rest of the Iranian forces are not brave, or will not fight. They will fight any foreign enemy to the death. And I'm not even saying that the U.S. military will win a war if it invades Iran. It will not.

What I am saying is that in a confrontation with the current Iranian naval force, these brave men will perish very quickly. How many submarines does Iran have 10, 20? How many warships? How many aircraft? How many missiles?

With such a navy -- made-up of equipment that is either decades-old or inferior Russian and Chinese makes -- it would be suicidal to get into a confrontation with the Americans.

In the Islamic Republic martyrdom is much more important than real military strength. THIS should not be underestimated by foreign invaders. But to think Iran has a strong military is just a joke.

False propaganda and brainwash campaign

During Iran and Iraq war almost a million died mostly young men. Because they loved their country, poorly equipped.

My uncle who was stationed in Ahvaz he said, they would sing a song by "Ahangaran" ( he was a an evil man) for the youngsters ages between 13-15, they called the mine sweepers.

These young boys were at the front of line and would die. No equipment nothing given to them just a key to paradise around the neck. Sometimes a white horse would appear from a mile or so indicating that paradise is waiting for the.

My uncle used to say with tears in his eyes that in a matter of few seconds all of these kids, hundreds of the would die.

The IRI regime doesn't care about the people only cares about its survival.

Not only we can't stand the military incursion by the west, the people can't handle it anymore, they are mentally and physically tired. Iranians are very depressed as a nation.

Thank you

I agree with JJ

These 1960's--and in the case of the Russain Kilo class submarines that they use, 1950's--vintage ships, equipment and weapons are no match for a modern navy such as that of the United States.

Vanish?

It would be a mistake to underestimate Iran's coastal defenses. Unless we believe these brave men are completely incompetent, or the commanders are witless morons, Iran has the upperhand in strategic terms. True. in a purely naval confrontation Iran would be at a great disadvantage. The US naval force is geared towards high seas task force to task force naval battle, in which logistics intensive carriers would dominate the air over the battlespace. But Iran is not going to fight this type of naval warfare if it comes to that awful moment. The plain fact is that in the shallow littoral waters of the Persian Gulf, the US task force would be a sitting duck. It remains a mystery how well the Iranians have organized their coastal defenses since that is where they dominate. It would be a nightmare for the US to fight a sustained war for weeks and months with their long lines of logistics and little maneuver space for their big ships in the Persian Gulf. If enough concentration of air defense and coastal batteries is achieved, Iran can overwhelm the US naval assets which would simply be outgunned. Observe that the US assets are floating platforms and thus highly vulnerable, whereas Iran's would be on terra firma. The US military performance has been at best chekered historically. They win wars in coalitions such as in WWI & WWII. But when they fight solo they seem to lose: Vietnam and Koerean wars were lost by the US where its military had to contend with long lines of logistics & supply and a determined foe.

I am with you on that JJ

These young men are only trying to defend their own country, no matter who's in power there, these guys are the ones who fight and the ones who get killed for Iran.

I hope there is no war, they have no idea what US Navy seals are like, even if it gets to that point...

IRANdokht

Boro Baba

Saddam ham az in hart-o-porta ziad mikard. It wasn't long ago that "Zadan leho lavardash kardan".

Khoda oon roozo nayareh

I hope there will be no war. These fine young men are so innocent and poorly equipped. They will vanish in a matter of hours in a confrontation with the Americans.