Would a Beaten Obama Attack Iran?
realclearworld / George Friedman
27-Oct-2010 (4 comments)

I am arguing the following. First, Obama will be paralyzed on domestic policies by this election. He can craft a re-election campaign blaming the Republicans for gridlock. This has its advantages and disadvantages; the Republicans, charging that he refused to adjust to the electorate's wishes, can blame him for the gridlock. It can go either way. The other option for Obama is to look for triumph in foreign policy where he has a weak hand. The only obvious way to achieve success that would have a positive effect on the U.S. strategic position is to attack Iran. Such an attack would have substantial advantages and very real dangers. It could change the dynamics of the Middle East and it could be a military failure.

I am not claiming that Obama will decide to do this based on politics, although no U.S. president has ever engaged in foreign involvement without political considerations, nor should he. I am saying that, at this moment in history, given the domestic gridlock that appears to be in the offing, a shift to a foreign policy emphasis makes sense, Obama needs to be seen as an effective commander in chief and Iran is the logical target.

This is not a prediction. Obama does not share his thoughts with me. It is merely speculation on the options Obama will have after the midterm elections, not what he will choose to do.


Obama's best chance for re-election: Attack Iran


George Friedman and his infinite wisdom... not.


Sargord Pirouz

Oh sure, Americans will just

by Sargord Pirouz on

Oh sure, Americans will just love Obama after he attacks Iran and gas prices rise to $6 a gallon. And Obama may be many things, but stupid isn't one them.

Dream on, Pro-Zionist Friedman. Dream on. 


May be ..

by iamfine on

Another alternative will be to open a face to face dialogue with the Iranian government. That is, to normalize the US -Iran relationship. In that regard, Obama may boost his popularity for his reelection.



by LoverOfLiberty on

While I think it is debatable what is wise and what is not wise regarding how the US should deal with Iran, I think the author of this article is rather accurate with his general analysis that Obama's foreign policy will take center stage, so to speak, during the second half of his Presidential term...at least if he wishes to be re-elected in November, 2012.