News

I have been advised that the new Iran NIE, which is still being negotiated, will likely reflect a compromise giving everyone what they want.  The report will say that there is no solid information indicating that Iran has revived its pursuit of nuclear weapons, but the fact that Tehran has taken steps to hide aspects of its United Nations inspected nuclear energy program suggests that there is indeed an intention to move towards development of a weapon.  The estimate will suggest that development of a weapon might already be in progress, though it will not state that in any definitive way....

There will be additional caveats and weasel-worded language in the report, plus some dissents, that will make the conclusion a soft one, but its conclusions will be leaning towards the side of “It’s better to be safe than sorry.”  The CIA analysts will be able to claim that they indicated that there is no hard evidence for a weapons program and that even the conclusions are based on soft analysis while the White House will be able to keep “all options on the table” and will not be boxed in.  The Obama Administration does not want to go to war, but if a conflict does somehow develop it does want to be able to cite the NIE as partial justification.