اختلاف آمريکا و اسرائيل در مورد ايران
Radio Farda
25-Jun-2010 (11 comments)

ماتيو برودسکی از کارشناسان مرکز سياسی يهوديان در شهر واشنگتن معتقد است که اختلاف نظر بين باراک اوباما و دولت اسرائيل بر سر برخورد با ايران سياست دو کشور را به دو مسير جداگانه خواهد برد. او در مقدمه مطلب خود در روزنامه اسرائیلی جروسالم پست، برنامه هسته ای ايران يکی از مسائل اصلی مورد بحث در سفر بنيامين نتانياهو، نخست وزیر اسرائیل، در اوايل ماه ژوئيه، به واشنگتن خواهد بود.

به نوشته برودسکی آقای نتانياهو از موضع باراک اوباما در اين زمينه نااميد خواهد شد. دليل آن تفاوت عميق در ديدگاههای دو طرف در مورد خطرات ناشی از برنامه هسته ای ايران و اختلاف ارزيابی های آنها در مورد پيامدهای يک اقدام نظامی پيشگيرانه عليه اهداف هسته ای ايران است.

به اعتقاد نويسنده مشکل اوليه اين است که کاخ سفيد تصور می کند اگر رئيس جمهور آمريکا از دوستی آن کشور با اسرائيل بکاهد می تواند از اين عامل برای رسيدن به يک توافق کلان با ايران بهره جويد. آ... >>>

Shifteh Ansari

Let sanctions work or attack, too?

by Shifteh Ansari on

I think the IRGC would want a war in order to complete its hold over Iran.  Whoever gives it to them has given the IRI a new lease on life.  Attacking Iran is the worst decision, unless the objective is to keep the IRI in power.


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Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Interesting

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

sets of analysis by good people. Needless to say I
  • Do agree we are on our own.
  • US; Israel and Britain specifically Britain created Islamic radicals.
  • I have no sympathy for Islamists.
  • I doubt Israel will attack IRI without USA approval. USA will approve if IRI becomes a nuclear threat to Israel. 
  • Iran haters i.e. Bernard Lewis want disintegration. 
  • It is our job to be prepared for what is to be. The diaspora will play a critical and formative role in the future of Iran.
My analysis.   VPK 

default

Ben, what is to disagree?

by Kaveh Parsa on

indeed >> "The damnedest thing is done by ourselves".

I just said that the west will also do their duty too!!


fooladi

If the foreign imperialist forces

by fooladi on

Had kept their noses out of Iran in the first instance, we would not had started  with pahlavi regime and ended up with the mafia of islamic regime. These islamic terrorists, from Khomeini and his islamic regime to Bin Laden and Al Qaeda are all creations of USA and Israel. Now let them deal with their little troublesome creatures the way they know best, this is of no concern of Iranian nation as a whole.

Having said that, Israel will attack the nuclear facilities of mullahs, if khamenei/ahmadi become technically capable, let alone dare to cross the nuclear red line. Israel would not seek US's permission on that. Israel's overriding and number 1 priority, from it's inseption has been and shall remain the preservation of Jewish state AT ANY COST......

And no, the Iranians would not rally behind the islamic regime in case of a foreign invasion. Anyone who says otherwise is either an agent of the islamic regime or one of thise liberal, wishy washy lefty political analyst with little or no knowledge of what the realities are in Iran at the moment...


benross

I don't quite agree

by benross on

It needs Unity & leadership (nonexistent at the moment & the west will do their damnedest to ensure it stays that way)

I don't agree. The damnedest thing is done by ourselves. The west is just being realistic and go about its business.


default

all options are designed to keep IR

by Kaveh Parsa on

Sanctions:

Poison chalice v1: This is window dressing for the western public's consumption (note the inclusion of HR related components!), to give enough time for IR's internal debate and justify accommodation between the factions, leading to voluntary retreat of the reformers in order to preserve IR. This is west's preferred solution.

If this dose not work, then

Limited Military attack (not involving Israel):

this will either lead to

1- Poison chalice v2 >> Changing of the IR leadership (to Rafsanjani & the Reformers) again in order to preserve IR. This would be west's next best solution.

or

2- Strengthening the current IR faction in power (complete & transparent takeover by the sepah & "hojatieh" faction). this is a nightmare scenario that could in turn lead to implementation

The Bernard Lewis Project

Disintegration of Iran, by fomenting & arming ethnic groups. although unpredictable, it would be west's 3rd best solution.

**********************************************

As a result of the cumulative effects of the above, and at each stage the chances of a home grown revolution & overthrow of IR & replacement by a nationalist regime increases. but we are on our own with this and only have a small window of opportunity. It needs Unity & leadership (nonexistent at the moment & the west will do their damnedest to ensure it stays that way).  This is the least palatable solution for the west, but one which due to its unpredictability and unmanageability (west public opinion), the west would have no choice but to accept (at least initially!)

as DK would say, my humble analysis


humanbeing

i agree

by humanbeing on

bombing/attacking will strengthen iri, and suck the us into a war for which they have no stomach.

israel will NOT attack or bomb. it's all bravado. same with iri. they're 'flyting' (aggressive talk common before, and often instead of, battle -- many examples in the animal kingdom, and in epic poetry of many nations), and going on the brink.

problem is, the brink is at a different point in different cultures, and some codes of brinkmanship may be broken in the cultural gap, or some middle-management messianic psychopath may 'push the button' while generals and statesmen are busy ruffling their brinkmanship feathers and neglecting their watch.

that's why i think the window of opportunity for less nihilistic options is narrowing down and iranians need to unite and act by bypassing their leaders. easier said than done, we haven't managed in my neighbourhood either, but still you are more motivated and the stakes are higher at this moment.

 


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Benross

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

has got this right for most part. No Israeli attack because USA won't let them. Sanctions not enough by themselves. Yes the rest is our job.


benross

It won't happen

by benross on

Israel won't attack. This is a front for more strategic differences Israel (the current government that is) has with U.S.A (again, the current government and in my view the reality of changing world). No matter how seriously Israel be unease in current context, it is not suicidal yet.

On the other hand, sanctions won't work by themselves. They will work for what they are initially designed for. But they won't work for us at all. We have to work within the opportunity provided to us as a byproduct of their initial intent.


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Shifteh

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

I have basically said this for over a year. Bombing Iran will stenghten the hand of Mullahs. Of course unless they totally overthrow the mullahs. The question is: does the USA have the stomach for a full war?

Fatollah

I think the goal is to keep IRI

by Fatollah on

by attacking that is!