Should the latest episode of Israeli calls for bombing Iran be taken seriously, or is it – like the many cases prior to it – yet another (politically motivated) false alarm? Like clockwork, Israeli alarm bells have gone off in the past fifteen years with predictable regularity. Bellicose statements by Israeli officials have been followed by alarmist analyses describing military measures as both necessary and inevitable. And then, without any explanation, the bellicosity recedes and Iran and Israel return to their more normal levels of animosity.
By now, as WikiLeaks documents show, U.S. officials tend to view the Israeli threats as a pressure tactic to get the United States and Europe to adopt tougher measures against Iran, and to refrain from any compromise with Tehran over the nuclear issue. These intense periods of Israeli warnings about its imminent intent to bomb Iran have indeed tended to coincide with times when the international community has been debating additional sanctions on Tehran.
This latest call for war is no different.
Next week, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is due to publish a report expected to detail evidence on the Iranian government's suspected past weaponization activities. The Obama administration and the French government have pushed the IAEA to take a tougher line against Tehran. The IAEA report will be followed by a U.S.-EU push for harsher sanctions against Iran at the U.N. Security Council, where Western powers will meet stiff resistance from Russia and China.
The Obama administration has also launched a campaign to report the Iranian government to the Security Council due to its alleged attempt to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States. Here again, the aim is to convince a skeptical international community to go along with new sanctions.
For Israel, the tactic of threatening war to secure sanctions has been a gift that never stops giving. The Israelis press the U.S. and the European Union to opt for more sanctions by arguing that absent new punitive measures, Israel will be "forced" to strike Iran unilaterally. Washington then uses the Israeli threat to press Russia,China and the rest of the international community to adopt new sanctions topreserve the peace. The choice is, the tactic dictates, between sanctions and war; not between confrontation and diplomacy.
To retain some minimal level of credibility, each new round of saber rattling contains new elements to set it apart from previous episodes. This time around, the narrative reads that intense debates are taking place within the Israeli cabinet between proponents and opponents of unilateral Israeli strikes. What are supposed to be confidential, internal deliberations have now been leaked to the public and the whole world can follow the debate over war and peace unfold like a bizarre reality TV show.
While skepticism about Israel’s saber rattling is warranted, it is also dangerous to completely dismiss it out of hand. At a minimum, there are two important factors that indicate the past pattern of empty threats may be changing.
First, stiff resistance from the U.S. military has in the past forced Israel to think twice about any unilateral strike against Iran. Pentagon officials believe that Iran will not differentiate between an American and an Israeli attack. As such, Israeli military strikes will beget significant Iranian retaliation against American targets. In July 2008, in the midst of a massive Israeli effort to convince former President George W. Bush to attack Iran before he left office, then chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen warned that an Israeli strike on Iran would prove "extremely stressful" for U.S. forces in the region. "This is a very unstable part of the world and I don't need it to be more unstable," he cautioned.
But with President Barack Obama in election mode, Benjamin Netanyahu may sense an opening. At a time when the Republicans are attacking Obama for being insensitive to Israeli interests, Obama cannot afford another confrontation with Netanyahu. In spite of the danger Israel would put U.S. troops under if it attacked Iran, Obama’s ability to exact a political price on Israel for doing so is currently limited.
Second, as I document in A Single Roll of the Dice – Obama’s Diplomacy with Iran (Yale University Press, 2012), sanctions and military action are not either-or options in Israel’s view. Rather, they are complementary. While sanctions systematically weaken Iran and reduce its capabilities, including its ability to muster nuclear advances, military action is needed to push back Iran if it reachesimportant nuclear milestones, in Israel’s view. Sanctions can slow down Iran’s nuclear advances, but military action can set the nuclear program back, albeit only temporarily. Alone, neither approach is satisfactory for Israel. Only when the two are combined will the Jewish state feel confident that the balance of power is securely locked in its favor.
But with Washington having little left to sanction in Iran, and Israel’s credibility reaching a new low as a result of its many false alarms, how much longer can this game of brinkmanship and sable rattling be pursued before it turns into a self-fulfilling prophecy?
First published in CNN's globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com.
AUTHOR
Dr. Trita Parsi is President of the National Iranian American Counci and the author of Treacherous Alliance – The Secret Dealings of Iran, Israel and the United States. Dr. Parsi will be releasing his upcoming book A Single Roll of the Dice – Obama's Diplomacy with Iran (Yale University Press), early 2012.
Recently by Trita Parsi | Comments | Date |
---|---|---|
Bibi’s Three Steps Forward, One Back | 5 | Oct 13, 2012 |
Mistaken Path | 18 | Jun 22, 2012 |
Give Obama Elbow Room on Iran | 26 | Jun 15, 2012 |
Person | About | Day |
---|---|---|
نسرین ستوده: زندانی روز | Dec 04 | |
Saeed Malekpour: Prisoner of the day | Lawyer says death sentence suspended | Dec 03 |
Majid Tavakoli: Prisoner of the day | Iterview with mother | Dec 02 |
احسان نراقی: جامعه شناس و نویسنده ۱۳۰۵-۱۳۹۱ | Dec 02 | |
Nasrin Sotoudeh: Prisoner of the day | 46 days on hunger strike | Dec 01 |
Nasrin Sotoudeh: Graffiti | In Barcelona | Nov 30 |
گوهر عشقی: مادر ستار بهشتی | Nov 30 | |
Abdollah Momeni: Prisoner of the day | Activist denied leave and family visits for 1.5 years | Nov 30 |
محمد کلالی: یکی از حمله کنندگان به سفارت ایران در برلین | Nov 29 | |
Habibollah Golparipour: Prisoner of the day | Kurdish Activist on Death Row | Nov 28 |
Mehrban: You are reading this incorrectly….
by Bavafa on Mon Nov 07, 2011 01:58 PM PSTI did not rationalize your comment as hate speech but the restaurant owner and his poster despicable and distasteful depiction of Iranians, either to express his view regarding the regime in Iran or as a way to garner more customers.
I also did not say you are a Birthier or anti-Obama.
'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory
Mehrdad
Most of us are against war (myself included)
by Mehrban on Mon Nov 07, 2011 01:52 PM PST*
Excellent piece-If war with Iran becomes a reality...
by Abarmard on Mon Nov 07, 2011 01:43 PM PSTIf Iran is attacked, while some can say Islamic Republic is attacked, it is Iranians that are being attacked. National wealth of Iran will be destroyed. National security of all Iranians will be gone. Division of the country that affects all Iranians will be jeopardized. Iranian men, women, children will be killed. Many decades of our care, wealth, and resources will need to go to those who have become handicapped by foreigners’ bombs. Decades or even half a century of our lives needs to go to waste to rebuild what was destroyed.
No hate to any system should be a justification for such damage and suffering to "your own country". I don't care how much you hate the system, you can't allow hate to cloud your logic and passion. Tens of thousands of people and children dead, or holding their dead parents and crying will remain. Smell of rotten dead Iranians will cover most war torn areas.
This is not a joke. This is not an opinion. Only those who care for humanity, only those who care for child that has parents and never want to see that child seeing his or her parents in sea of blood, dead in front of their eyes, seeing that child crying hopelessly holding her mom’s dead head in her lap…Only those who may have seen or have imagined people in total despair...Only those who have known wars know well what I am talking about.
No amount of pain today can be compared to a war torn Iran. No amount of government act or unjust policies can equate the damage of war with Iran.
You may preach today about those hundreds who unjustly are imprisoned in Islamic Republic. That’s a human rights issue and you must follow that by opposing even bigger anti human rights acts. Sanctions and wars hurt common people. People you may not see or care about but are real. Their lives are changed by limitations other than what government has enforced. You should care about that.
A Selfish and miserable individual full of hate that can even resort to accept war against his or her own country is nothing that we can use today to make Iran or your host country better.
Join NIAC and become united against sanctions and war. Be an Iranian American in true sense. Appreciate your life and luck being out of Iran while allowing those who are left behind a chance to succeed.
Nonsense Bavafa!
by Mehrban on Mon Nov 07, 2011 01:16 PM PSTPLease do not categorize my rational comment as hate speech. You should be able to do better than that.
I do not belong to tea Party nor am I a birther, and I voted for Obama in the last elections not that it is anyones business.
Mr. Mohammad Ala: Divide we are and if not…
by Bavafa on Mon Nov 07, 2011 01:09 PM PSTSome will make their outmost effort to divide us in order to weaken us.
A good example is exhibited here where an issue that is not related to IRI nor the US government but only the Iranian people and American people, yet much mambo jumbo was giving to justify this hate speech. Now, when such hate speech is coming from the Iranian side, whether by Iranians or IRI many are [rightly] ready to condemn it but when it is from the American side, we often hear the excuse of “freedom of speech” or “retaliation” though those excuses are never valid if it comes from the Iranian side, in essence being shotor-morgh
And regarding NIAC and Mr. Parsi, much the same as tea party birthiers, we have our own tea party NIACers. No matter what he says or do, it is never enough.
'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory
Mehrdad
Certain positions come with specific responsibilities
by Mehrban on Mon Nov 07, 2011 01:06 PM PSTMr. Parsi is entitled to his opinion as a private person but if he is supposed to look out for the interest of Iranian/Americans (especially in the case of war) as their representative (?), he should not take sides in this conflict. This is not a matter of difference of opinions.
The conflict between IR and Israel has nothing to do with Iranians or Iranian Americans but we will all be caught in the cross fire. Mr. Parsi makes our situation much worse by taking sides (especially IR's side) as our representative.
Nothing Lost In The Translation Of AN's Statement!
by G. Rahmanian on Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:11 AM PSTاظهارات احمدينژاد درباره رژيم صهيونيستي، خشم حاميان صهيونيسم را برانگيخت
خبرگزاري فارس: اظهارات محمود احمدينژاد، رئيس جمهوري كشورمان درباره رژيم صهيونيستي، خشم حاميان صهيونيسم خصوصا حاميان غربي اين پديده شوم را برانگيخت.
به گزارش فارس به نقل از خبرگزاريها، رئيس جمهوري كشورمان روز گذشته در سخنراني خود در كنفرانس «جهان بدون صهيونيسم» در تهران، با اشاره به بيانات امام راحل (ره) گفت: «همانطور كه امام فرمودهاند، اسرائيل بايد از صفحه روزگار محو شود.»
كاخ سفيد مدعي شد اظهارت رييس جمهوري ايران درباره حذف اسراييل از نقشه جهان نگراني هاي واشنگتن را نسبت به حكومت ايران و بلند پروازي هاي هستهاي اين كشور تاييد ميكند.
اسكات مكللان سخنگوي كاخ سفيد روز گذشته در جمع خبرنگاران ادعا كرد: «اظهارات رييس جمهوري ايران چيزي جز تاكيد بر آنچه ما درباره حكومت ايران ميگفتيم، نيست. اظهارات وي نگرانيهاي ما را درباره فعاليتهاي هسته اي ايران تاييد ميكند.»
نخست وزير استراليا با انتقاد از اظهارات محمود احمدينژاد، رئيس جمهوري كشورمان درباره رژيم صهيونيستي گفت: «اين يك سخنراني بسيار خطرناك و جدي است.»
«جان هوارد» كه دولتش يكي از حاميان اصلي اسرائيل است، امروز در جمع خبرنگاران گفت از اظهارات احمدينژاد نگران و معتقد است سازمان ملل بايد در اين مورد اقدامي انجام دهد.
وي گفت: «فكر ميكنم اين مساله، زمينه را براي نگراني بسيار بزرگي فراهم ميكند.»
وزير امور خارجه فرانسه هم اعلام كرد، تصميم گرفته است سفير ايران در پاريس را به خاطر اظهارات امروز محمود احمدي نژاد مبني بر محو اسراييل از صحنه هستي به وزارت خارجه فرا خواند.
فيليپ دوست بلازي روز گذشته در اظهاراتي مكتوب با اشاره به ابراز اميدواري رييس جمهوري اسلامي ايران نسبت به محو اسراييل از صحنه هستي و نيز تاكيد وي بر اينكه درگيري در خاورميانه به عنوان درگيري هميشگي بين يهود و مسلمانان باقي خواهد ماند، گفت: «اگر معلوم شود كه او (احمدي نژاد) واقعا چنين اظهاراتي را ايراد كرده، اين موضوع غير قابل پذيرش است و من آن را به شدت محكوم ميكنم.»
دوست بلازي افزود: «اين حكومت (اسراييل) با مصوبه مجمع عمومي سازمان ملل تشكيل شد و حقوق بينالملل نيز درباره همه يكسان است.»
در شرايطي كه موج تازه اي از جنايات صهيونيست ها عليه مردم فلسطين آغاز شده است، آلمان اظهارات رييس جمهوري اسلامي ايران را مبني بر حذف اسراييل از نقشه جهان غير قابل پذيرش خواند.
«وولتر ليندر» سخنگوي وزارت امور خارجه آلمان ديروز گفت: «اگر واقعا محمود احمدي نژاد رييس جمهوري اسلامي ايران اين اظهارات را ايراد كرده باشد، ما آن را غير قابل پذيرش ميدانيم و بايد به شدت محكوم شود.»
معاون نخست وزير رژيم صهيونيستي نيز پس از اظهارات رييس جمهوري كشورمان درباره اين رژيم، خواستار اخراج ايران از سازمان ملل شد.
شيمون پرز روز گذشته پس از اظهارات محمود احمدي نژاد، در پيامي خطاب به آريل شارون نخست وزير اسراييل ادعا كرد: «اين دعوت ، با منشور سازمان ملل منافات دارد.»
وي افزود: «بايد درخواستي روشن به دبير كل سازمان ملل و شوراي امنيت براي اخراج ايران از اين سازمان بينالمللي بدهيم.»
«ميگل آنخل موراتينوس»، وزير امور خارجه اسپانيا روز گذشته سفير ايران در اين كشور را فراخواند و با انتشار بيانيهاي اظهارات احمدينژاد را محكوم كرد.
«پير پتيگرو»، وزير امور خارجه كانادا هم ديروز گفت: «ميخواهم اظهارات رئيس جمهوري ايران را به شدت محكوم كنم. ما در قرن 21 هستيم. كانادا هرگز چنين نفرت، ناشكيبايي و ضديهوديگري را نميپذيرد.»
وي ادعا كرد: «با توجه به اهداف هستهاي ايران و عدم همكاري اين كشور با بازرسان آژانس بينالمللي انرژي اتمي اين اظهارات همگي نگرانكنندهتر هستند.»
يك سخنگوي وزارت امور خارجه انگليس نيز كه به دليل سياستهاي دولت اين كشور نخواست نامش فاش شود، روز گذشته گفت انگليس قصد دارد به «اظهارات ناخوشايند رئيس جمهوري ايران» اعتراض كند.
انتهاي پيام/.
Mammad: Grow Up And Stop Self-Pitying!
by G. Rahmanian on Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:04 AM PSTYou are as pitiful as the rest of your hypocritical Islamist friends, Mammad. Every time you have an argument with someone on this site, you attack them with the same set of statements. Go back and check how you try to deal with anyone who criticizes IR! You accuse them of calling you names whereas in each case you have called others names. I have shown you one or two cases before where you went up the wall and then apologized. In your response to my first post directed at you, you use your same old technique and say: "Consider me anything you want." What did I consider you? Instead, you should tell me what "siding with the US" on this particular thread means, Mammad. You see how crazy you sound? Perhaps you don't even realize it, anymore!!!
We are proud and honored to say
by Rea on Mon Nov 07, 2011 10:35 AM PST"that the Islamic Republic of Iran gives us support and help," Abu Ahmed, the spokesman for Islamic Jihad's ...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/03/us-palestinians-israel-islamicjihad-idUSTRE7A24RR20111103
How come this US celebrity called Trita P. never mentions it? Yet, it's all over the place.
I sense dividedness....
by Mohammad Ala on Mon Nov 07, 2011 10:34 AM PSTAlthough I was mentioned by my name in another thread, I won't mention any name here… why not those who dislike Mr. Parsi’s article to ask him to change the summary or other things in his article to your liking?
Our community has not learned to respect opposing views. I sense dividedness…. We should seek to support one another and our organizations which are seeking to protect our rights and our identity as Iranians not undermine these organizations or each other.
"Is Netanyahu serious about ...?"
by Rea on Mon Nov 07, 2011 10:21 AM PSTWas AN serious about ..... or was it just another mistranslation ?
PS. how come this Trita P. never mentioned the IRI threat made to Israel. In whose name, btw? In the name of Hamas n Islamic Jihad ?
VPK,
by Mehrban on Mon Nov 07, 2011 10:05 AM PST:)
Dear Mehraban
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Mon Nov 07, 2011 09:48 AM PSTNo problem it is just when I head "insane" or "crazy" I automatically respond :-}
Dear VPK
by Mehrban on Mon Nov 07, 2011 09:30 AM PSTI was not referring to you nor to any one person. But this either/or binary line of posturing.
Question for Mammad
by Masoud Kazemzadeh on Mon Nov 07, 2011 09:36 AM PSTMammad: Iran, with nearly 80 million people, a lot of weapons, an asymmetric warfare strategy second to none,…Any attack by any nation on Iran must be responded to with full force and without any hesitation, including attacks on any U.S. allies in the region that might allow such a crime takes place using their airspace, land, waters, and bases. The aggressor must be published.
==================================
MK:
Mammad,You write that one MUST respond with full FORCE anyone who supports the U.S. including ATTACKING ANY American ally who allows their airspace, land, water, or bases to be used. You correctly state that the IRI uses asymmetric warfare which includes the use of terrorism.If I understand you correctly, you write that if the IRI used asymmetrical methods and blew up something in the region and killed a whole bunch of Americans, you will use only use your pen and support the Americans being killed by the IRI’s asymmetrical methods.What I wanted to know is that if the IRI wanted to blow up some military installations in the U.S., and asked you to help them,
will you:
a. report the IRI agents to the FBI or other law enforcement agencies ( thus helping the U.S. and hurting the IRI).
b. will NOT report them to the FBI and other law enforcement agencies.
Dear Mehraban
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Mon Nov 07, 2011 09:21 AM PSTNot sure if you were referring to me. But yes I am probably insase which means I could not be since I am aware of it.
Anyway forget Parsi for a moment and let us think of ourselves. To me there is not a big dilemma if USA attacks. My response is to push for policies that are both good for USA and Iranian people. A stable united secular Iran with IRI gone.
Remember we have 38 years of peace and stability in the region. It was only after Iran went to the dogs that trouble begun. Anyone with a brain should realize what we need. I have no use for idealists; Islamists or Parsi. I just want a normal sane regime like what we had before IRI. Now my asbestos suit in on. Because the "pro democracy" people tell me what a horrible tyrant Shah was.
Sophie's Choice!
by Mehrban on Mon Nov 07, 2011 09:18 AM PSTAre you insane? Of course this is every Iranian/American's job (Especially Mr. Parsi's) to protect I/A from this kind of a nonsense question of either/or but what does he do, he writes an article against one of the potential sides of this conflict, Israel (or US as a possible proxy).
In the unfortunate event of a war between US/Israel and IR Iranians who are against IR will have the most painful dilema to deal with (even in Iran). It is Mr. Parsi's job or anyone who thinks is (?) the representative of Iranian Americans to safe guard Iranian Americans from these lines of questionings. But what does he do, he associates himself and by extension his constituents with one side of the conflict. It is really scary!
Folks
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Mon Nov 07, 2011 09:08 AM PSTMay we agree on a few things:
I also bet that if it does happen not ONE person here will commit violence. Not for or against USA or IRI. It behooves us to keep down the "hart o poort" and stick to reality. No the world will not end and there will not be a holocaust. It will be another 2 trillion dollars and a giant pain in our joint ***. We as Iranian American may do nothing; help or make things worse.
My "ehem" moment with Haj Mammad Agha Sahimi
by anglophile on Mon Nov 07, 2011 07:33 AM PSTGR
by Mammad on Mon Nov 07, 2011 07:10 AM PSTI believe that it is you who is changing things in order to make your non-point point.
1. As I said, you and a few others can call me anything you want. I have been called everything on this site by 3-4 people, and yet I am here for nearly 4 years expressing my views. So, I do not give a hoot to what you call me. People can read my comments and yours to see who is attacking whom, and who is making baseless accusations.
2. You misunderstand what I say, and then based on your misunderstanding you began your baseless attacks. For example, you had completely misunderstood my comment about Pan-Arabism and the VF regime and based on it left a long comment.
3. Where did I say that you, GR, support war? I said, if you want to side with the U.S., be my guest. If you do not want to side with the U.S. and/or Israel, then, fine, great!
4. Instead of responding to my comment regarding the real reason for a possible war - which you cannot do, apparently - your resort to name calling. Fine, do it.
5. Call me paid or unpaid agent of the VF regime. Call me anything. "An raa keh hesaab paak ast, az mohaasebeh cheh baak ast." It is precisely based on this philosophy and more importantly track record that I am still here, commenting. A couple of people on this site have tried to dig up dirt on me for years, but have come up empty handed, because there is nothing.
6. Do not lose your nerves and composure and go into a rage so easily.
7. I repeat: If the U.S. intentions were purely for the good of the Iranian people; if the VF regime had actually made nuclear weapons and had threatened Israel fooolishly with them, or if the VF regime were actually a physical threat against Israel and/or the U.S., I could understand it. But, the fact is, none of it is true, not according to me, but according to many experts, military and political.
8. I repeat: this is about U.S. and Israel wanting to be the hegemon of the Middle East. Even U.S. officials have said that. Do not be kaaseh az ash daaghtar.
Mammad
Live in the US, but support attacks on U.S. military
by AMIR1973 on Mon Nov 07, 2011 07:06 AM PSTIt is a perfect arrangement to have certain individuals use their presence in the U.S. to express their support for attacks on U.S. military forces by the murderous IRGC and its proxies in the unlikely event of a direct military conflict between the U.S. and the IRI. These are the same individuals who go around branding others as "traitors" and see fit to distinguish who is a "patriot" and who is not.
MK
by Mammad on Mon Nov 07, 2011 06:53 AM PSTWhile I do not want to respond to you in general - so please do not bother in the future, I do not wish to debate anything with you - this time I respond to your typical nonsesical question in your usual role as the interrogator on this website, just so that there will be no ambiguity.
The war and fighting will be in Iran, not in the U.S. If war broke out and I were young, I would go back to Iran and fight any invader. My entire family has a long track record of fighting to defend Iran in actual wars. But, I am 57 years old. At this stage of my life, if the U.S. attacks Iran, I'll fight it the only way I can, by writing and speaking about it publicly and loudly, regardless of where it might take me.This should have been obvious to you and your type. But, since you always try to get people to say things that you can jump on, you ask such nonsense questions.
Dariush Homayoun, the 82 years old man who was opposed to the VF regime right from its inception and a pillar of the regime that was toppled by the 1979 revolution, said repeatedly that if the U.S. attacks Iran, he will temporarily support the regime to defend Iran. That is a patriot in my book.
It is interesting that Mehrdad said the same on this thread, but no one jumped on him. People like you think that you have gotten your "ahaa" moment with me. Nonsense.
Mammad
Hirre you are not listening
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Mon Nov 07, 2011 06:43 AM PSTI am saying "IF" USA were to get involved. You keep repeating your idealist Utopian stuff. The problem is that while idealists talk real world does things. Most the time they are not right moral or in any way fit the idealist.
I am saying "ASSUMING" America goes in then what. You keep saying let the people. Well in the prefect world that would be nice. But the world is not perfect. My idea is to hope for the best but plan for the worst. Or at least be ready.
The idealist refuses to entertain anything but their ideal. Therefore they get caught unprepared when reality hit them. It is why Mossadegh got overthrown. And why JM and their kind lost to the Islamist. Because they were not prepared for trouble.
The solution is "easy"
by hirre on Mon Nov 07, 2011 06:38 AM PSTIt's all, all who want to make a change will have to participate in an election. Let the people decide what they want, the sooner iranians, including yourself, understand this, the sooner true democracy will come to Iran.
Iranians tried back in 2009, for many of them Mosavi & Karrubi was the best they could get, but still they were hindered. If west once again tries to think what is best for Iran based on what some iranians in the west prefer, then the same historical mistakes will happen again...
Let the people of Iran decide its future, not us, not the west, not anybody except themselves... You can't have a fundamentical regime for 32 years, then voila introduce a super-democratical candidate who hasn't been elected, you will have millions of Iranians opposing this even though they might not be in majority. You need to compromize for once!
Remember that the same fear (and later hate) was shown by the fundamentalists towards other parties back in 79, let's not recreate that as an opposite version...
The best way is to do basically as was done in Libya but an extended version of it. In case of war and an aftermath a temporary leadership must be restored:
1) Let all the leaders gather and present their vision and politics for Iran.
2) Create an internal vote (among the leaders) to select a temporary leader. If the case is 50/50 the US chooses the winner.
3) The temporary leader prepares an election for government, supervised by the US, the rest of the leaders who want to participate need to create political parties and participate as political candidates for the elections.
4) The iranian people vote for different candidates, power is split based on percentage. The largest percentage creates the government, apoints president, ministers and so on...
5) A new consitution is being written, but must include this type of electorial democracy without the VF or other dictatorial authorities such as the republican guard etc.
Years will go and Iran will slowly become more and more democratic as "bad" candidates get less and less votes. This is how you wash of the majority of hardcore fundamentalists permanently...
As far as candidates, you will not know what they want unless they come into the politcal system, there are lots of promises that go undelivered, even here in our democracies. The true message of iranian politicians will be shown in this type of forum. Anything else is just speculation, who knows what mousavi would do if he got the power, or karubi, rajavi, RP etc etc... The are all just talking, but when you deal with the actual problems: social, economical etc etc, you will see their true faces...
Hirre
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Mon Nov 07, 2011 04:50 AM PSTI don't live in Fantasy. My post is based on what America may do to minimize its own risk. Not what is wanted by people. Pahlavi are a known factor; nothing else is. Therefore it makes perfect sense for America.
Besides most the time people don't know what they want. In 1979 most Iranian wanted Khomeini and see where that got us. Maybe we should pay less attention to public opinion and more to what we think is good.
Will you please list the potential leaders who would be available post IRI? I will make a list and request that you please add to them:
Personally I rule out all Rafsanjani; Rajavi; Khatami and Mousavi. I will be willing to support Karroubi; Fouladvand; Pahlavi or Ebadi but not the other four. The lesser know ones I just do not know about. What is your postion?
VPK
by hirre on Mon Nov 07, 2011 04:31 AM PSTWow, you live in a fantasy... "bring back Pahlavi"... Have you even read RP's own texts, or seen him in interviews? The only way RP might consider a position is if the iranian people selects him through voting, based on his interviews he will not even consider running for power if the Americans are forcing him into it, and you are saying let's do this! Wow... This and the fact that the majority of iranians don't support the monarchy any more as a government makes it really strange why you would want to do this, what you would want would harm Iran in the same way Iran always have been hurt...
Dear Hirre
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Mon Nov 07, 2011 04:18 AM PSTI figure since I am supposed to be VPK I might as well make a prediction. First of all I think this is hot air and nothing will happen. But assume USA does go for a full scale war.
If USA attacks Iran full scale then Iranian military will collapse in weeks. Maybe less because they saw what happened to Saddam. This will include regular troops; Basiji and all other forms of identifiable force. They will go underground and wait.
Israeli involvement will be a disaster and you are right on. That is why they did not participate in Kuwait or Iraq wars. Arab participation will be almost as bad. The "best" received will be Westerners and that will not be a real welcome!
Maybe USA could get Germany or Italy to contribute forces. They will probably be the least hated. After all the old WWII ties may still hold some water :-) But no occupation force will be welcome for any period.
The real test will be what do they do next? Will they pack up and go or settle down like in Iraq and Afghanistan. If they stay then there will be repercussions. If they go then who knows what kind of government will form.
The Sepah will be mostly intact just hidden. If I were the Americans and did it I would restore the Pahlavi. It is the only known factor. The other options are too risky. Bring back Reza Pahlavi; make sure he is in control then go. But make it clear to Sepah you are watching them. Also tell Reza Pahlavi not to get dictatorial or he will go the way of his father. One false move and you are back. Then in time a stable government will form.
My fellow iranians...
by hirre on Mon Nov 07, 2011 04:05 AM PSTI think living in US is as far as you could get from the realities in Iran...
It is easy to say "this and that" about a war with Iran. But I know that when it comes to the actual iranians living in Iran, the situation will be interpreted very differently...
I strongly believe that no matter which group you belong to, when Iran is attacked you will initially perhaps see division, but if the war continues (and it will), more and more people will be against it (no matter the future outcome), just as we see in Iraq and Afghanistan...
People who see violence and blood will not open their arms for America as its "liberator". The worst outcome is if Israel is participating also. Every iranian in Iran that I have spoken to is against the current Israeli politics. In fact the whole middle eastern people is against Israel (even though many don't show it openly) to such an extent that after Israel's initiation as country more and more people began being against "jews" in general than nazi Germany during WW2.
Using this as a premise, iranians will directly/indirectly see Israel's attack on Iran the same way palestinians see Israeli occupation. Set your comfortable situation aside and think of real iranians in Iran, not Euro-Iranians, or American-iranians and so on... Real iranians in Iran do not think the same way as we do throughout the masses. Most of us will become shocked of how ordinary people in Iran will react, the same "green movement" or "democrat" etc you thought will open their arms for the west will be willing to defend his own country.
The situation will become so complex that no one will be able to do a correct situation analysis. Iran is not Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan. Iran has deeply developed underground networks throughout the world and its socio-political status has become very coupled with other countries' systems. How will russia react (//www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-uIaSRiWA4)? How will china react? The IR regime might be so desperate that they sell out our sovereignty to the russians just for protection...
On top of this we have the democratic iranian people living abroad which have deeply impacted the world. How will they react, can america guarantee that of those thousands of Iranians living in America or other countries that no one will cause any harm on american or any other foreign soil... We have thousands of iranians who work for different foreign military agencys, how will they react? Will the US send iranians to war, as we saw in Iraq? How will iranians in Iran react? And so on forever...
You see, these are the problems America deals with, it is not because of the reasons that you hear on TV or because you think Obama or Hillary or any other democrat cares for Iran, this is just for show... America knows it will pay a high price for a "victory" against Iran. Iran is specially treated because of strategic reasons, not because we are a special people in the world...
When you have all these facts, it is not that easy to jump into a war, why do you think America wants sanctions, it's to see how much Iran can be weakened. With all these facts America/Israel might gamble, maybe if they are lucky the situation will not be that complex, just maybe it might work, only history will tell...
Question for Mammad
by Masoud Kazemzadeh on Sun Nov 06, 2011 11:39 PM PSTMammad:
by Mammad on Sun Nov 06, 2011 01:00 PM PST
As much as I hate the VF regime and hold it partly responsible for the situation at hand, I am in total agreement with Mehrdad: Any attack by any nation on Iran must be responded to with full force and without any hesitation, including attacks on any U.S. allies in the region that might allow such a crime takes place using their airspace, land, waters, and bases. The aggressor must be published.
==================================
MK:
Mammad,
If the U.S. attacked Iran, will YOU punish the U.S. with full force and without hesitation? In other words, will YOU kill Americans?
Just asking.
MK
Mammad:
by G. Rahmanian on Sun Nov 06, 2011 11:57 PM PSTYou see! You are a demagogue using sophistry and wild accusations to whitewash regime's crimes against Iranians. The same old nonsense about being here or there to win popularity. Who cares what you are here for! You resort to all kinds of lies in order to prove a point. Show me any place where I have defended any country's attack on Iran. Otherwise shame on you and your Islamic "taghieh." No wonder some people on this site call you a paid agent/apologist of the regime. Your demagoguery is beyond belief for a person who claims to be telling the truth. Who cares whether half of Israeli population says IR isn't building a bomb. Although I strongly believe the regime in Tehran has been trying to build one, that is not the purpose of what I have written here. Whether you like it or not the regime must go with or without VF. You can revise what I have written here as much as you like, but you can't hide the fact that you can't stand anyone who opposes the murderous Islamists' rule in Iran.