Shoring Up Assad

Iran's proxy war in Syria

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Shoring Up Assad
by Marc Ginsberg
31-Jul-2011
 

If the current trajectory of Syrian street protests continue at their current, bloody pace, last Friday (July 22) may be remembered as the epic day Syria's Assad dictatorial dynasty began a fateful, accelerating process of unraveling.

Finally, after over four months of country-wide protests, every major Syrian city witnessed massive simultaneous demonstrations against the regime. From Aleppo in the north to the capital Damascus, hundreds of thousands of Syrian citizens defied the live fire aimed at them by Assad's security forces chanting the newly-minted forbidden revolutionary anthem "Come On Bashar, Leave!"

Hey Bashar, hey liar. Damn you and your speech,
Freedom is right at the door. So common on, Bashar, Leave!

It is an appalling travesty that because of the media blackout the world cannot witness the wanton killing of innocent Syrians at the hands of their own government. Last Friday, over 32 people were shot dead, bringing the total number of Syrians murdered by the regime to over 1,600. No one has a credible estimate how many more have been abducted or injured.

Numbers are abstract. Casualties in raw numbers do no justice to the mayhem Assad has condoned against his own people.

Visualize this eyewitness report. A solemn funeral procession for a young, married Syrian protestor en route to burial at a cemetery on the outskirts of Homs. Suddenly, Syrian security forces start shooting point-blank into the procession. Within seconds the grieving mother and the son of the protester were struck and instantly killed. Six more grieving relatives were killed, as well.

If Assad's power base is unraveling how long will it take for the coup de grace?

Unfortunately, if Iran has its way, Assad won't be going anywhere anytime soon.

Iran has reportedly provided an emergency financial lifeline to the regime in the amount of $5.6 billion as billions pour out of Syrian banks by nervous depositors seeking safe haven in Beirut or Istanbul-based banks.

As I reported earlier, intelligence analysts have irrefutable proof that Iran has dispatched advisers from its domestic secret police forces (The Law Enforcement Service or LED) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG) to take over direct supervision of anti protest suppression.

The savage repression being committed by the joint Syrian-Iran strike forces is being directed by leadership elements of Iran's so-called volunteer marauders squad known as the Basij (those civilian clad thugs who roamed the streets of Tehran beating Iranians senseless and kidnapping protesters).

Confirming the Iranian intervention, the European Union imposed sanctions against the leadership of the IRGC and certain Syrian security forces, charging IRGC commander Mohammad Al Jafari and Al-Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani and IRGC deputy commander for intelligence Hussein Taeb for directly providing command and control as well as logistic and equipment support to aid the Syrian regime suppress demonstrations. Not too long thereafter, the U.S. Treasury Department slapped further sanctions on key Iranian commanders aiding and abetting the crackdown against Syrian civilians.

In addition to its shock troops, Iran has also provided Syrian commanders with sophisticated road-side bombs to take out any defecting Syrian military vehicles (which Iran has also provided to Shiite militias in Iraq to be used against Americans), as well as Iranian-built sniper rifles.

According to other Middle East media reports, Iran also constructed in Syria an advanced Nokia Siemens Network (NS) devices for disrupting internal internet communications which permit Syrian forces to identify activists using social media -- the same type of telecommunications interception equipment Nokia was forced to admit in 2008 that hit had sold to Iran.

Given the magnitude of Iran's direct intervention in Syria and Assad's deference to his Iranian riot-control masters, it would not be too much of a stretch to assert that Iran, rather than Syria, is largely overseeing the repression given the extensive role Iranian forces now have in putting down the revolt.

For good measure (and despite the usually untruthful protestations to the contrary), the free-for-all being directed against Syria's citizens also includes elements of Lebanon's terror group and Iran proxy, Hizbullah.

This morning, Syrian/Iranian forces commenced a new, more massive crackdown on the eve of Ramadan, which the Assad regime fears will transform every day into a Friday of demonstrations.

If the regime is not being pounded militarily into submission, like in Libya, what will trump its Iranian-funded rescue and cause it to erode and collapse from within?

Surely, it will take more sure-footed, hard-nosed leadership from the Obama Administration -- whose approach toward Syria until now has been -- to put it as charitably as possible -- disappointingly callow and erratic. Even the New York Times accused Secretary of State Clinton in a July 18th editorial of diluting her own message to Assad after finally declaring him illegitimate in an unscripted aside.

While foreign military intervention against Assad is a non-starter, the U.S., along with the European Union have not fully unsheathed their economic swords.

Unfortunately, the longer the protests continue the more likely Assad will provoke grim sectarian strife to save itself, a fear the White House has expressed on numerous occasions. That is why urgent, additional economic sanctions are needed now to accelerate the regime's demise and forestall the very sectarian strife the Administration fears.

So what more can the U.S. and its allies do short of military intervention?

Andrew Tabler, one of our country's leading experts on Syria, wrote an instructive essay in Foreign Policy on July 19 declaring that the U.S. and Europe should begin boycotting Syrian oil exports -- setting forth 6 specific rational steps which could be taken to hasten the regime's downfall.

According to Tabler, Syria produces 390,000 BPD, of which it exports 148,000 BPD -- accounting to 1/3 of state revenues. If the European Union were to slap sanctions on the sale of Syrian crude to Europe (imported by Germany, Italy, France and the Netherlands), no more foreign currency from oil imports.

How many more body counts must the US and EU receive before turning off the oil spigot?

The U.S. could also pressure the United Kingdom to halt the operations of Gulfsands Petroleum -- a former Houston-based refiner/extractor, which is tied at the hip to Assad's cousin, Rami Makhlouf. And the U.S. could also pressure the EU to cease all banking ties with the Commercial Bank of Syria, which is used to convert oil sales into hard currency. Finally, the U.S. and the EU should selectively target imported refined gasoline and diesel products -- a sanction already leveled against Iran.

Admittedly, there are no silver bullets by which to topple the Assad regime. As the unorganized protest movement morphs into a more coherent, representative and legitimate National Salvation Council the U.S. has a unique opportunity to put behind it its past regrettable policy missteps and play a far more constructive (and not a tell-tale obstructionist role), in expediting this transition.

Iran has much to lose should Assad & Co. topple. The U.S. has much to gain by their loss. Syria's fate and future (unlike Libya's future) have far-reaching consequences to the region. Assad is not indispensable. He is merely the devil we know and that does not make him the better choice in that equation. The people of Syria deserve better and it is high time before the very violence we most fear tears Syria apart and help accelerate an end to their suffering and plight.

If the Syrian people have risked their lives to muster the courage to proclaim it, Madame Secretary, there is FAR more this Administration can do to leverage additional painful economic sanctions against Syria to hasten its demise. For good measure join them in declaring "So Come On, Bashar, Leave!"



First published in HuffingtonPost.com.

AUTHOR
Marc Ginsberg is former U.S. Ambassador to Morocco.

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vildemose

 This is a war of

by vildemose on

 This is a war of attrition and IRI is not going to win it in the long run.

IRI and IRGC are on  a fool's errand. They are sqandering the collective wealth of the nation to prop up a brutal dictator in the region will not benefit any Iranians future or present economic, social, or political security. This kind of behavior is pushing Iran once again to the edge of catastrophe on multiple levels.  The IRGC is not very smart either. If they were really smart, they would spend this money on diversifying the economy to create more jobs and avoid closing down of hundreds of nascent little  manunfacturing companies in Tehran. They would invest this money in alternative energy or creating an enviornment where the best and the brightest of IRan don't have to leave.

I genuinely believe that Iran's greatest asset is its people not oil. Invest in them instead of wasting money on blood lust that will not achieve anything in the end.

The IRGC is not being wise. The are self-destroying in the long run.

Absolutely zero thought goes into their errouneousl sound foreign policy  that makes any common sense...No cost-benfit analysis, no risk calculation short-term, long term...The only thing they are concerned about is how to keep lining their pockets without interruption. Only a band-aid to a much bigger problem they have structually and foundationally as a political/economic institution.

 It might prolong their grip on power for a few more days but it won't help them in the larger scheme of things and in the long run.

 

"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx


Bavafa

Ayatoilet1: I think it would have read more accuratly if...

by Bavafa on

"No Freedom Anywhere in the Region without Defeating Greed & theft"

In strategy and in practice, IRGC is not doing any thing different the lets say American forces, are they?

Do you think Americans would have just sit around if an adversary force was setting up the biggest military infrastructure in the region right next to the US? Or do think they don't do all they can to support their puppet regime?

Don't get me wrong, I do condemn IRGC interference and support for dictatorial regime, not only abroad but more importantly at home. But they are not the only evil in the region, the Saudi's are possibly a far greater evil and they would not be in power without the force and support of the US.  Also, lets not forget about the greed of Israel for their neigbors land, the greed of US for ME oil and wealth and the greed of IRGC for power and $$$

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Obama

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

is not an idiot and knows what he is doing. He is in a very difficult position. Right now all his energy is going into dealing the "Tea Party". Preventing the USA from defaulting on its debts. Republicans are making his life miserable at every point.

Meanwhile people with no real power write op-eds. Maybe they are right but they are not holding responsibility. I firmly believe that Obama has Syria in mind. I have written many times of his plan. Meanwhile the NeoCon is running their own foreign policy. Which if enacted will bring disaster of massive proportion to the region. I suggest we hold off on telling Obama what to do. So far he has done far better than Bush. His management of Egypt was very well. By preventing a total collapse and falling into Islamists Obama scored a victory. Give him time and let him implement his plan. At the end both Syria and IRI will be transformed. But not as the NeoCon want it. Obama is using slow medicine; requires time; but beats NeoCon.


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

On the positive

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

Side this is the first time Iran has extended its reach way past its borders. Please note some sarcasm in my post. I am not in any way defending the IRI or IRGC. But give them credit. Since the Ghajars Iranian influence and territory has been diminishing. Reza Shah did reverse it a bit by shoring up Khuzistan. But IRI has brought Iranian influence far beyond its previous reaches. Before long it will reach the Safavid days. They also act like the Safavids not a good thing.

I hope there is no confrontation with Israel. That is not good for anyone. The problems is that Israel is as much to blame as IRI is. Both of them are kicking dirt via proxies. People suffer while those in power are getting fatter.


پندارنیک

Beats me.....

by پندارنیک on

Why do I have problem with a "berg", raised in Israel and served for the US in Morocco when he starts talking about my homeland?


ayatoilet1

No Freedom Anywhere in the Region without Defeating the IRGC

by ayatoilet1 on

Its very clear to me, whether its Iran, Iraq, Afgnaistan or Syria ....the key is to find a way to completely defeat the IRGC. There is so much evil perpetrated by them in the region (and actually worldwide) its beyond belief. They are ruthless to the core. Beyond assisting Syria, and insrugents in Iraq and Afghanistan - they are prime smugglers of drugs from Afghanistan to the world, they are now heavily involved in black market body organ sales -- I wonder what they are doing in Syria with the dead bodies ...

The IRGC seems to have an unlimited budget, and and unlimited capacity tfor ruthlessness. They are rotten to the core. They make the Nazi SS look like a bunch of school boys.

If they (IRGC) save Assad's regime, Syria will become a defacto Iranian satellite state. This will change the balance of power in the region, and put Iran directly against Israel. This is a strategic shift that will have monumental implications for the region. Imagine what might happen if war breaks out between Israel and Lebanon or Israel and Syria ...for the first time in Israel's history there will be a pool of nations under one singular leadership that can fight as a coordinated force.

This "domestic'" battle is not only about the fate of democracy in Syria, but really about the fate of Israel; on the other hand if Assad loses, the pressure on the regime in Iran will increase exponentially...and this could be the domino that falls perfectly in the direction of democracy and freedom in Iran. The stakes are huge for the IRGC.

Western silence is puzzling - but there may be a grand scheme at play here... and a reason for the silence. 


ham1328

Boy oh boy, IRI looks better everyday!!

by ham1328 on

But then, we knew it all along.