Misc

On Baer

Regarding Baer's giving different audiences what they want, he told a French paper that one of the aspects of the CIA's downfall was its political correctness. His first example? The promotion of women. His explanation was pretty sexist. And that from a guy whose second wife was a CIA sharp shooter, according to an article that appeared online after Baer spoke at Dartmouth while promoting the movie "Syriana." He also doesn't evidently believe that domestic wiretapping in the U.S.A. is a big deal. So if he doesn't care about women's rights and the right to privacy in his own country, how can we expect him to care about the struggles of civil society in Iran?

On Baer

If Baer, as posters here opine, has an agenda, part of it is to be all things to all people. Norman Finkelstein has a post on Baer on Finkelstein's website which is highly critical of Israel. However, elsewhere, as in the interview here, Baer nods approvingly to the likes of Olmert. He seems to have picked up on the interviewer's pro-Israel stance and gone with it, just like a good operative in the field would go with an informant's or an agent's bias. He has also made contradictory sorts of statements about the CIA's current recruiting policies. In one interview, for example, he noted that the CIA was not letting in those with guts and imagination. The sorts of agents, to take an example that he gave, who, if planted in Yemen, would have no problem chewing qat, a sort of hallucinogenic plant, because that is what one would have to do to blend into the scenery. Then about the same time he spoke in San Francisco and told his audience that he could not get in the CIA these days if he applied because such an amazing crop of students from places like Stanford and the Ivies had cropped up to apply in the wake of 9/11--doubtless the sorts of budding bureaucrats that Baer, who has bragged about parachuting and driving tanks with Russians after the thaw of the cold war in Tajikistan, would think would be too timid.

As for those who think that he is a mouthpiece for Big Oil, it's an interesting speculation. He seems to be on the side of the the people when he says in interviews that the American people cannot afford twelve dollar per gallon oil, which he claims would result from an altercation with Iran. Avoiding an untenable oil price, as well, is something that Big Oil wants.

One of the things that I wish he would address is why he thinks Iran is a rational state, but what he says about Israel would lead to the conclusion that it is not always a rational state actor. He has talked about Israel wanting, for example, to fly over Iraqi air space to bomb what Israel takes to be Iran's fledgling nuclear capability. He said that "even Bush" knew not to give Israel such permission. Baer has also talked about how Israel needs the U.S. and would not want the U.S. to face the havoc that a war with Iran would bring. Why, then, would Israel be irrational, in Baer's eyes, and want to bomb Iran?

Here is another interesting point about Baer and Israel. He talks in See No Evil about one of the first folks whom he tried to recruit as an agent, a Sami in India, who heard first hand what some of the Israelis who bombed the U.S.S. Liberty said about the U.S. during the bombing of the ship. According to Baer's rendition of his exchange with this would be agent, the would be agent was shocked at the anti-U.S. sentiment that he heard from the Israelis. Baer doesn't print what the agent heard, however...Why?

on the topic of freedom and

on the topic of freedom and such. you cant say you dont understand why IR does what it does. alot of people in iran want to be like the US. from the fasion to the rights and etc. but those are the positive things. what people in iran dont know is, how messed up it is in the US moral wise.
brothers are fighting with the sister because the brother wants to wear his sisters pants. (believe it or not). kids dont know the meaning of respect. i hear more curse words from a 7 year old toward his parents then i do anywhere else. by the age of 10 girls want to be the biggest whore to become more popular.
what makes it worse is that, in the US. they gave gays some rights as in the right for marriage. now there talking about kids being taught about gays in sex ed. can you imagine your kid coming home asking you about whats a homo. im not saying people dont have the right to choose. what im saying is that everyone looks at the good but ignores that bad. the IR isnt afraid to kill, everyone knows that. In the US they kill with pills. they kill with there food. the same style of power and fear over there people in iran. there doing the same in the US.

what we as iranians need to do, is basically take the good thats in iran, US, and elsewhere and base laws around that cause almost every law has been tested. ill tell you this a secular govt will make things better but to certain extent. and thats when as iranians our history will benefit us the most.

plz excuse my grammer and spelling

as much as iranian people

as much as iranian people want to stop supporting hezbollah and such. i could care less of everyone but hezbollah. there the only ones that actually have a commonality with iran. but then again if they stopped funding everyone but hez, i think the argument will be dropped.i know its country first then religoin. but remember thanks to iran. all countrys in the M.E. are worried of treating the shiite badly. and the same goes with hezbollah. how the hell is the majority going to get the short end of the stick.
from a military view that's irans land army. you may call it a waste of money, i call it sercurity. everyone remembers 2006. 3000 soldiers 188 hezbollah deaths stopped a country. so if iran taught them, the world is wondering what iran has instore. but before you start cursing my anonymous name. the only thing the IR has provided is sercurity and that does cost something. other than that they need to watch it cause its gonna be sooner or later. iranians are gonna be ready to shed blood for a better country. we did it once, we can do it again.

an US official said this and it made alot of sense.
"iran is the sleeping dog in the ME that everyone trys not to wake up. But now that it has woke up, nobody knows how to treat it.

Darius Kadivar : kheili tond narro

None of us really likes IR here or in iran.(unless they are pocketing the oil money). But let's agree on one thing, this Government is strong, inspite of being corrupt and fundamentaly undemocratic. No one can mess with them, neither US, nor Isreal, nor their political enemies, nor regular people in Iran. Therefore we should accept this government as our legitimate government and at the same time provide construcitve criticism. I say this because that is the only way we can more forward. if every iranian does something positive for their country, then Iran will become better. but if we show continuous animosity towards IR, nothing is going to come out of it. IR is not afraid of killing many many people to stay In power. IR is not like SHAH who will think twice before killing his country man. These guys are real thugs, they will kill as many of us as possible to stay in power.

The best you and me can do is to educate our society. Make people better, and hopefuly our government will learn from our people to be more civil and tollerant so that they will trust their own people. a good example was Khatami. This lovely person showed us the way, we should follow his path, which is paceince and hard work towards our god given rights.

we all agree that people should have freedom of speech, freedom to cloth any way they like, and have any religion they like, just like the US (God bless the US). but if we forget the reality on the ground, and keep on acting like kids (like you) and none-stop bash IR, then we won't reach our goals.

God bless Iran and its smart people.

In the hopes of a day in which people learn how to be free and God fearing.

For Saman and Toofantheoncesogreat

Thank you both for your comments. Saman I think we agree on the essential. Toofan Jaan I still disagree with you on this issue for I believe that giving the IRI any credibility will only boost their ambitions and set back the Iranian Civil Society's legitimate demands for Democracy. Give them a hand they will demand your Arm. Its the "Eidy Mentality" the more you give them the more they become "por rooh" and refuse accountability. At best we will be like North Korea but with a Religious Oligarchy in Power pulling all the political strings. 

In the meantime hear is what "Our"  President claims:

//news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7855444.stm

Iran's president has responded to an overture by the new US president by demanding an apology for past US "crimes" committed against Iran.

The US "stood against the Iranian people in the past 60 years," Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said during an address in the western region of Khermenshah.

"Those who speak of change must apologise to the Iranian people and try to repair their past crimes," he said.

President Obama has offered to extend a hand if Iran "unclenched its fist".

RE:Darius Kadivar

Good points, and I agree with most of them, but Baer does not compare Iran to the Soviet Union or China.

He states simple truths, like 40-50% or the worlds oil industry is a button away from our Silkworms. Thats what makes us a "superpower" in his definition, controlling energy corridors. And I agree with that. There are reasons why we have not been decimated/raped like Iraq or Lebanon.

Second of all, I dont agree with your argument that this point of looking Iran as a regional superpower and a global player supports the IRI or cuts down on the democratic progression of Iran. On the contrary. I believe that the faster foreign powers calm to a political settlement with the IRI and start trading with Iran, Iran's people will join the international community more and our people will have higher demands of our government. Not to mention that Iran will have to meet standards of liberal government through economic and trade policies, like China has done.

The fear of war, coups etc is one of the main reasons the IRI is so strong to hold its power. They say "look at Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan, we might not let you drink beer in a coffe house, burn a picture of Khameni in public, walk around in a bikini or make out at the park, but we give you security".

In short, I believe that our nations military and scientific progress should continue, as governments come and go.

super power

That's right! The Saudis are pulling the string not Isreal. And China will be the next Super power not Iran so America better find alternative energy and stay out of it.

No doubt

I think we agree on almost every angle. The reality is ... war will not solve it and that's what this guy is saying. No one should ever ask for an arms race. We have to acknowledge the reality and work slowly to solve the issues. We're talking about mid-east! It's either the Arabs, Iranians or Israelis going at each other's throats. There needs to be a share of balance and that takes time and muscle!

FYI/Even Ordinary Iranians Took Up This Banner by Azadeh Moaveni

Interesting article which shows the GAP between the Iranian Leadership and Iranians on the issue of GAZA  (another Geo Strategic concern of the IRI):

Even Ordinary Iranians Took Up This Banner by Azadeh Moaveni (Washington Post)

FYI/Abbas Milani Nukes, Kooks and Future of Democracy in Iran

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: and for the note I share Abbas Milani's views entirely on this subject.

Authors@Google: Abbas Milani Talks about

Nukes, Kooks and Future of Democracy in Iran: a discussion of Iran's current political situation, and the prospects of democracy, and a resolution of the country's nuclear program." His most recent book is Tales of Two Cities: A Persian Memoir.

Raised in Iran, Abbas Milani was sent to be educated in California in the 1960s. He became politically active and in 1974 received a PhD in Political Science. He returned to Tehran and taught at the National University but was imprisoned by the Pahlavi regime in 1977. After the revolution he became a professor at Tehran University, but by 1986 his utopian illusions had been shattered and he emigrated to the United States. Dr. Milani is the Hamid and Christina Moghadam Director of Iranian studies at Stanford University and co-director of the Iran Democracy Project at the Hoover Institution. Abbas Milani is also the author of the bestselling The Persian Sphinx: Amir Abbas Hoveyda and the Riddle of the Iranian Revolution, as well as the prize-winning Lost Wisdom: Rethinking Modernity in Iran.

This event took place on August 13, 2008, as a part of the Authors@Google series.

Saman Jaan

I don't take your assessment personally. It is your right to have a different opinion. But precisely what your comments reflect is what I am concerned by and that is a fascination for an Iranian Leadership that is nothing else than a NEW DYNASTY and Certainly Not the Secular Republic most Secular Iranians aspire too, The "Persian Empire" anology is an EGO BOOSTER for Iranian Diplomacy and geo political ambitions in the region. To me it only allows Iran to gain time on several grounds :

1) Its Nucleare Program and for that be sure that we will end up with the Bomb one way or another. Probably with the Help of the Russians their New Ally. In their shoes I would do the same.

2) Impose itself as a regional Power. In there shoes I would also do the same

Gladly I don't wear the same shoes or "Dampayeh" as the Mullahs so I can think differently. ;0) 

In Both Cases Iran's Civil Society is the BIG LOSER in the same way that Khatami became a dissapointment for being sold to us as the Iranian Gorbatchev.

I am not naive to think that the Mullahs are ALL Stupid but I am wary of the ideology ( Islamo Fascism) that would sustain such a Neo Islamic Safavid Empire to which this leadership aspires too. That New Empire will not give way to a Democratic Iran, THAT I AM CERTAIN !

This New Safavid Like Empire may create a new aristocracy in the leadership in the likes of that Intellectual Translator who has sold himself to the Mullah  ( I forgot his name but the one who translated Ahmadinejad at the UN and wrote a flattering book on the Islamic Republic ) but other than that if it succeeds in anything it will be in redefining the geo strategy Map of the region.

Its Old School Politics but that is no guarantee to the acheivement of our Real Goal and that is Democracy.

The Russian Card is also something Iran is trying to gain support. Russia is at odds with not only America but the European Union. But if we are indeed looking at Russia as a Role Model for Iranian Society then I can understand the EGO BOOSTER but Look at Russian Society and the Values on which it is built upon. Journalists assassinated a Civil Society which is basically inexistant which places its trust in its leaders just like during the Tzars( which were not Constitutional Monarchs but Absolute Ones) or the Soviet Era, and a form of Savage Capitalism that would make the Chicago of Al Capone Blush in Shame.

America and Western Europe have a History of Democratic practice and values which Iran's leadership very much like China and Russia today oppose for historical reasons.

We as a Society need to reflect on these theories and geo strategic scenarios and even if Baer refers to some realities ( even if he is not the only one to know about it). However as Iranians We should also look at the BIG Picture concerning OUR Legitimate Struggle as a society thirsty for Change towards a Secular Democracy. Our Behaviour today will determine the next decade to say the least. And By that I do not mean that by Firmly Opposing the IRI we should endorse an Attack on Iran. The latter scenario is fortunately unlikely be it by America or Israel ( unless Really provoked by Iran's leadership in regard to the Holocaust for instance). But we as intellectuals and members of the Iranian Civil Society be it in the Diaspora and in Iran have to draw a line between our own Priorities and those of our leaders which in anycase will act without our full knowledge or even endorsement.

This is why I am very critical about this EGO BOOSTER be it by Baer or anyother person who sees the IRI foreign policy as an asset to our national interests on the long term.

I believe that what matters most urgently today is to let the world know that Iranians want to find a common platform in the lines of Polands Solidarnosc in order to achieve Democracy in the true sense of the word. As a Constitutionalist Monarchist ( even if I am not a party member) I am even willing to give up on the whole idea of the Monarchy if I was certain that we could achieve such a goal.

Our Civil Society is Truly at Crossroads today as never before and I tell you if we don't achieve this unity while Obama is President then we can give up the whole idea of a Secular and Democratic Iran for by the end of his presidency, The IRI lobbyists will have achieved their goal. Muzzling ANY OPPOSITION to the IRI both Inside and Outside Iran. And Baer will be making Millions with his other Hollywood film based on this Book. He should have not called it "THE DEVIL WE KNOW" But "THE DEVIL I SLEEP WITH"

My Humble Opinion.

DK 

Don't take this personal...

Baer actually has a great understanding of what's going on between Shiite, Sunni and Israeli powers in Mid-East. The points he's making are a collective understanding of what has been happening in the Mid-East based on a 30 year history from terrorism to international policies. He's not looking at the issues from an Iranian perspective or what's happening in University of Tehran. The picture is a lot larger. Iran looks like a theme park next to Saudi's and other Shiite opressions in mid-east. He says what he says based on real street experience and knowing what effect the governments have on the streets in and outside of their countiry! Iran is using Shiitism/Islam as an excuse to once again be a "Persian Empire" using its own nationalism and support for the opressed in Palestine and other Arab nations. This makes the Saudi's and Israelis very uncomfortable for obvious reasons. I was actually impressed that a Westerner wold say the things Baer did in this interview. Like it or not ... he speaks the truth. If you don't believe him, visit a few Arab countires and see for your self.

Answer to Toofantheoncesogreat

My Problem with Robert Baer is not much WHAT he says but WHY he say's it.

It should be noted that this interview was made Before The Obama Inauguration and before Bush was out of office.

It is interesting to hear his response in the 3rd part of this interview:

The NPR journalist asks him what makes his sources more reliable given that after all the US government should have the same. His answer is that he has sat down with the Iranian Leaders ( but does not have any written evidence because it would be illegal ) Revolutionary guards  etc ...

If THAT gives him INSIGHT into the Iranian Leadership and their psychology then I think ANY Iranian is as qualified as Mr. Baer to read into their minds.

Have you noticed that he has never made ANY REFERENCE to the Iranian Civil Mouvement in Iran and how much the government is at Odds with the majority of the population. He belittles the Iranians struggle also by saying that he spent time in Iran but that did not teach him much on the realities of the country and could have stayed in his hotel but that he did get very good inside information on the Leadership and Revolutionary Guards.

The Point with People like Baer is that they are at the service of a Grand Bargain which consists of selling Iran's Civil Society's struggle for Democracy in exchange for a diplomatic victory for his clients and that is the IRI Leadership.

It is simply Lobby Work for the IRI in disguise. The Result of this EGO BOOSTER for Iranians in giving them the impression that they are as powerful as China or the Soviet Union during the Cold War is Bolony ! Nationalism is what unites Iranians and also blinds them to ridiculous proportions like the Soccer Matches in the World Cup. They tend to forget THEIR PRIORITIES !

I clearly developed my views in this regard to Baer when I denounced his attack on the Iranian Kurd Rebels he called "Terrorists". God Knows I don't support an Independant Kurdistan but I don't consider them as Terrorists no more than the Native Americans who fought General Custer. If Smuggling Alcohol and Porn Tapes into Iran like it was suggested in a biaised report posted here in which Baer's "Expertise" was sollicitated. Then indeed I am also willing to be labled a Terrorist by this Hollywood Playboy Baer !

The Iranian Civil Society and Struggle for Democracy has never been more fragile than today. The aggression of Shirin Ebadi and the arrest of her colleagues is just the Tip of the Iceberg. These Lobbyists are developing theories which have no other purpose than to downplay what is truly taking place in Iran and that is a population which is being suppressed and manipulated at the same time into thinking that Ahmadinejad or Khamenei or anyother person from within the system can be their next Mossadegh.

THAT IS NOT THE CASE ! 

It is VERY interesting that the Media does  try to convey the Pro Democracy Dissidents in China and MAkes a BIG FUSS out of it:

 Taking a Stand: Jimmy Lai

Or as they did with the Dalai Lama during the Olympic Games but that they hardly speak about the Iranian Civil Society in the making and the prominent members at Odds with the Regime. They do report cases like what happened to Shirin Ebadi  but they hardly report on the fact that many Iranians are outraged by it both outside in the Diaspora and inside Iran.

What is taking place in Iran ressembles what other countries in Eastern Europe went through that is a dissillusionment with the Communist Ideology. Had the Reporters not insisted on what was taking place in Poland a mouvement like Solidarnosc would never have gained international support and finally win over the dictatorial government of Jaruzelski.

Baer Should Stop watching Smuggled Iranian Porn DVD's in his Hotel Room in Tehran and take a look out in the Streets from time to time.

//fr.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq8LovETezI

Or Here MARG BAR DICTATOR :

Dear reader

Dear reader, don't waist your time listening to this long interview.

Half way through the second segment, my bullshit-o-meter jumped off the roof.

I can't believe publishers pay a guy like this to write books!! 

//www.irannostalgia.com

irannostalgia.com

to: DK

Agreed, DK. He is hired by the American Realists (i.e. the oil mafia) to peddle the agenda of the reformers in Iran. He serves the interest of oil mafia (realists) nd the IRI not the Iranian people.

Saner than Bush Chaney-Israel hard liner

He doesn't have a complete understanding of the situation but he is definitely much saner than the likes of Bush-Cheney or Israeli hardliners. At least if he was given a chance, he could find a way out of this mess and lead people to a peaceful solution.

Dear Darius Kadivar

I agree with most of what you post on this site. But I have read a lot of Baer's work. Which part of his theories do you disagree with?

For me it seems that he builds them on solid strategical ground.

Good analysis

Last night I was watching American Experience, it showed, how Oppenheimer was railroaded, this analysis is logical, but it may not be to the interest of all, we have to wait and see how it proceeds. Both the Arab (Sunnis) and Israel will not like the outcome, and they both have a lot of money and influence to challenge it.

Wow... fantastic interview

It's so nice to hear from those with common sense and experience on the ground. This guy nailed it dead on. I hope the new administration listens to Robert Baer.

very eye opening

I am currently reading a book he just wrote called the devil we know and I have to say it was very informative. I recommend this book to everyone. I never considered Iran to be a super power before but its amazing how much power they have in the region.

BULLS EYE FROM A BULLSHIT ARTIST ! ;0)

A heart Warming Welcome to Robert Baer !

//fr.youtube.com/watch?v=9MAzgkk9I8w

My Kurdish Friends He lables as "Terrorists" in his book will certainly Appreciate his Feedbacks

//iranian.com/main/blog/sayeh-hassan/concern-mr-amir-masbah-ghazi-36-days-after-his-arrest

//iranian.com/main/blog/sayeh-hassan/arrest-two-students-and-one-youth-ravansar

He should go back making movies which I have personally enjoyed but he better stay out of Real Politics ... That is clearly not his field of competence or should I say Honest Reporting. Not surprising from a Former Spy after all to Bull Shit his way through the troubled waters of espionage and particularly today in the Middle East quagmire !