Stop. Wrong direction.

Following NIE report Bush has increased prospects of war with Iran


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Stop. Wrong direction.
by nmilaninia
01-Feb-2008
 

Following the National Intelligence Estimate ("NIE") report, the rhetoric on Iran has decreased significantly. Not only have politicians stopped debating about it (except for attacks against Clinton for supporting a resolution calling the Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization), but the news and reports about Iranian nuclear programs have stopped getting the front page coverage in major papers that they apparently deserved in the past.

Yet there's a problem here, an itch that everyone feels but no one has yet scratched. The Bush administration has long stopped caring about Iran possessing nuclear WEAPONS. It cares about Iran possessing nuclear KNOWLEDGE. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty ("NPT") was a negotiated settlement between states who possessed nuclear power and those who didn't.

The compromise was this: the nuclear powers agreed to share their knowledge and technology and to de-militarize their programs in exchange for assurances that the non-nuclear states would never ever possess nuclear weapons.

So while the NPT forbids militarization of nuclear technology, it actually encourages development and exchange of nuclear knowledge. The basis for this compromise is clear, nuclear technology provides any states a host of resolutions to energy problems. At the same time, it can give any state a dangerous tool.

This brings us to our current dilemma. The Bush Administration has arguably increased, rather than lower the stakes against Iran. Instead of embracing the NIE and engaging Iran, it has not only rejected the NIE (in a speech in the Gulf, Bush specifically noted that he did not agree with the NIE) but he has also increased the burden on Iran.

In other words, instead of taking us further from confrontation, he has actually brought us closer. Think of it this way, after the NIE report came out, Bush was asked by one reporter whether he definitively believed that Iran wants to build a nuclear weapon. In response, he states "...yeah, I believe [Iran] want to have the capacity, the knowledge, in order to make a nuclear weapon."

In his classic rhetorical moment, he summed up the administration's position on Iran: "Iran was dangerous, Iran is dangerous and Iran will be dangerous if they have the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon."

Now here's the point, the funny thing about knowledge is that the same knowledge needed to develop a peaceful civilian program which is perfectly legal under the NPT and in fact encouraged by the negotiating party is identical to the knowledge needed to develop a nuclear weapon. In fact, it is well known that every one of the 50+ countries in the world who have "nuclear know-how" have the knowledge to also build nuclear weapons.

So what Bush is really trying to do is deny Iran what they are perfectly entitled to under international law and under international agreements that the U.S. itself has signed onto. This makes the position by the U.S. not only irresponsible and unagreeable, but ultimately it makes it much more dangerous.

In many ways, this type of rhetoric is seeking to create a difficult international distinction between "states we like" and "states we don't like." Utilizing that distinction, we will respect international rules and regulations with states we like, but we feel free to throw such negotiated settlements out the door with states we don't like. The product of such a distinction: international anarchy.

The whole point of international treaties, like the NPT, is to create a framework by which states at odds can negotiate peacefully. Without respecting the contours of those treaties, the whole notion of international order is thrown out the door. In the end, we might not agree with Iran’s policies and record, but we also should not encourage any country to arbitrarily throw international law out the door in order to seek a resolution that is more politically advantageous to it.

The fact remains that the NIE report conclusively found that Iran is not developing weapons. This should be a time where we are pursuing negotiations, not increasing the line to war. Bush’s advisors should take this measure in hand and pursue the same policy that John F. Kennedy did during the Cuban Missile Crisis: that there is more to lose by not talking than to gain by remaining silent to one another.


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more from nmilaninia
 
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more lies to start another war and ...? (to: warmonger craig)

by Anonymo7 (not verified) on

Mr. Warmonger, as Center for Public Integrity reported, many US officials lied to pave the way for Iraq war. Those who did that and their supporters like you are not in a position to judge Iran.
As you are aware as a result of those lies (that is quite an understatement) your Necon/AIPAC friends have caused many disasters in the middle east, but since I know you could care less about that (in fact you are probably very happy about that) let me remind you of the disasters for this country (US):
Trillions of $ of waste, debt and stolen money
Failed or somewhat failed wars
A bad economy
Causalities
....


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Coincidently this interview had appeared on news in Iran

by NIAC/CASMII friends&Parsa khoshgeleh (not verified) on

Hey fatty, you can pick up your check for $100 million (we pay much better than those stingy americans, haha) at interest section of IRI in Washington tomorrow. Good job you have done writing this and other anti-Iranian articles, keep it up and more money coming your way. Long live Mcdonalds and chelo kabab ba piyaz, now you have all the money to go for them all.

سردار رشید: احتمالا به ایران حمله می‌شود

جانشين ستاد‌كل نيروهاي‌مسلح ایران، خبر از احتمال آغاز جنگ آمریکا و اسراییل علیه این کشور در سال 2008 ميلادي داد.
این برای اولین‌بار است یک مقام بلندپایه نظامی به خطر بروز جنگ علیه ایران اعتراف می‌کند.
امروز نیز فرمانده‌کل سپاه پاسداران به آمریکا هشدار داده است که در صورت وقوع جنگ نظامیان این کشور در منطقه خلیج‌فارس در تیررس نیروهای نظامی ایران هستند.
محمد‌علی جعفری که با شبکه الجزیره گفت وگو می‌کرد، تاکید کرد: "نظامیان آمریکایی در صورت حمله به ایران در تیررس ما هستند و البته ما هرگز در صورت حمله آمریکا ملت‌های منطقه را در معرض خطر قرار نخواهیم داد."
به گفته یک منبع آگاه از روابط عمومی سازمان پدافند غيرعامل، سردار "غلام‌علی رشيد" در همايش توجيهي سند راهبرد ملي پدافند غيرعامل ایران، گفته است: "تا پايان سال 2008 ميلادي احتمال حمله به ايران وجود دارد. وی تاکید کرده است:"تهديد عليه ايران از سايه و فضاي استراتژيك خارج و وارد فضاي عملياتي شده است."
براساس گزارش‌های دریافتی، رشید که از ژنرال‌های بلندپایه سپاه‌پاسداران انقلاب اسلامی است، حادثه كوي دانشگاه تهران، تلاش گروه‌هاي تجزيه‌طلب در خوزستان، كردستان، سيستان وبلوچستان، تئوري فشار از بيرون و تغيير ازدرون، تبليغات و عمليات رواني عليه جمهوري اسلامي به بهانه تسلیحات هسته‌اي، دخالت در امور عراق را از جمله برنامه‌های دانسته است که از "سوی دشمن" برای "سرنگونی جمهوری اسلامی" انجام گرفته و می‌گیرد.

جانشين فرمانده ستاد كل نيروهاي مسلح تاکید کرده است:"جمهوري اسلامي ايران از هيچ جنگي استقبال نمي‌كند، اما نجنگيدن را تا حدي تحمل مي‌كند كه هزينه آن از جنگ كمتر باشد


programmer craig

Nema (again)

by programmer craig on

So what Bush is really trying to do is deny Iran what they are
perfectly entitled to under international law and under international
agreements that the U.S. itself has signed onto.

About your post though (disregarding the fact that it's probably irrelevant since Iran already violated the NPT):

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Non-Prolifera...

The treaty was proposed by Ireland, and Finland
was the first to sign. The signing parties decided by consensus to
extend the treaty indefinitely and without conditions upon meeting in New York City on May 11, 1995.
The NPT consists of a preamble and eleven articles. Although the
concept of "pillars" appears nowhere in the NPT, the treaty is
nevertheless sometimes interpreted as having
three pillars: non-proliferation, disarmament, and the right to peacefully use nuclear technology.[1]

 

The right to PEACEFULLY use nuclear technology. Iran *discontinued* (or did they?) a nuclear WEAPONS program a few years ago, according to that intel report you cite. That means Iran has already demonstrated an intent to use nuclear technology in a non-peaceful manner. So you make a false argument whne you say theer is no danger associated with allowing Iran to have the abilty to construct nuclear weapons. And you make a false argument that the IRI would be in compliance with the NPT if it poissessed such ability. Iran lost it's legal right to nuclear power under NPT when it violated the treaty. That's how I read it, anyway. How do you read it?

Only four nations are not signatories: India, Israel, Pakistan and North Korea. India and Pakistan both possess and have openly tested nuclear bombs. Israel has had a policy of opacity regarding its own nuclear weapons program. North Korea ratified the treaty, violated it, and later withdrew.

North Korea is the only other country besides Iran that has violated the NPT. North Korea withdrew. Iran may as well do the same. Enough with the begging and pleading for Iran to get "back in compliance" - it doens't even seem possible for Iran to get back into compliance - Iran has already shown an intent to develop nuclear weapons. That *intent* cannot be undone, and trust can never be restored. Iran has no right to nuclear technology under the non-proliferation treaty.

 


programmer craig

Nema/Anonym7

by programmer craig on

Nema,

Why do you keep talking about the NPT? Iran already violated the NPT. A violated treaty is void. If the Euros/UN/whoever are still trying to get Iran to get back into compliance with it, that's up to them. And to the US I suppose. But if you think Bush is changing the rhetoric so he can argue Iran is violating the NPT, that's completely un-necessary. Iran violated the NPT years ago. There are no additional arguments Bush can make about Iran violating it again, right? A violation is a violation. I personally think that everyone (but particularly teh Euros) has been far too patient and far too lenient with trying to entice the IRI back into compliance with a treaty that they willfully broke.

Anonym7,

US does not need another front and

US involvement in Afghanistan is small.

//edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/01/09/ma...

If that MEU gets sent, the total of US troops there is still less than 30,000.

Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have committed to ending US involvement in Iraq ASAP... Obama says all troops will be gone from Iraq by the end of 2009. One of these two is likely to be the next President.

US is going to have a lot of ground troops available in about a year. And they are already in the neighborhood.

The US Navy and US Air Force commitment in both Afghanistan and Iraq is negligible.

Iran does not need another war

Seems like some mullahs in Iran disagree with you about that. A claim that they are only bluffing might be more convincing if they weren't stirring up so much trouble in Lebanon and Palestine. And Egypt, now.

in fact US and Iran need each other.

That one truly has me stumped. China will buy every drop of oil that Iran can pump out of the ground. And I can't think of a thing that Iran needs from the US. I think the lack of relations between teh US and Iran for the last 29 years have done a pretty good job of isolating the two countries from eachother in every area except politics, and the political situiation has been anything but good.

 


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to warmonger hmvatans

by Anonym7 (not verified) on

To warmonger, "pissed off" and "non-pissed off" hamvatans. Spring of 2007 came and passed, November of 2007 came and passed and your desire and wish for US attack of Iran did not get materialized. Your frustration is understandable, it is also understandable that besides using anti depressants, and war monger therapy you have to relieve yourself by attacking something or somebody (in this case the writer of this article and f4t).
However the best therapy for you guys is getting a sense of reality .... US has two major fronts right now, Iraq and Afghanistan/Pakistan, the first one which is somewhat OK but the second one is not going well at all (look at Karzai's recent plea in CNN). US does not need another front and Iran does not need another war, in fact US and Iran need each other.
my warmonger retard hamvatans good luck in your recovery!


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All countries depend on trade with others

by F4T (not verified) on

Independence does not mean you do not depend on others for trade!! All countries trade and Iran will necessarily align itself with the countries it determines are to its benefit. What the UK-US alliance won't tolerate is an Iran which is not in their sphere of influence; or an Iran that actually holds some power of its own in the region they desperately want to control. From that point of view Iran maintains some degree of independence.

They US-UK want all nations to bow to their power, and they'll do it by hook or by crook, as they did with Iraq, allowing multinationals to go in and take over the spoils of war as part of their assimilation. In the long term this will lead to less independence for such countries and their people.

Countries with strong alternative cultures are not allowed to gain too much power and that's why wars are created.

Independence should not merely be equated with economic strength which, by the way, is limited by sanctions. Iran is in desperate need for change but not by the force of military might as was the case in Iraq.

Insults are not the best way to show maturity or to win arguments. These forums are for people to exchange views not insults.


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Good perception

by Alborzi (not verified) on

You see its really immaterial what Iran does or
has, just like Iraq and all fanatics, they are driven by their own plans and the people who press the buttons within this gang. Just like the Hormuz incident, it will be trivial to find an excuse and Iran really can't do anything about it.


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f4t: Iran's independence????

by Anonymous3 (not verified) on

f4t: Iran's independence???? You must be kidding. Iran is a one pony act, with no manufacturing or technological base, Only a one-dimensional oil-based economy (a gift from God and technology from the West to extract and refine). Given that kind of economy, Iran by definition can never be independent for it depends on Russia, EU, France, and China. Iran has 4 masters now instead of one using your own jargon...Grow up and stop parroting tired old cliches.


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To F4T

by Anonmous (not verified) on

Your statement is Food for Fart not food for thought


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Conjured up "fact"

by Fred (not verified) on

You stated: “The fact remains that the NIE report conclusively found that Iran is not developing weapons”. Given that you have cut out the qualifier NOW from the text of the report, your statement is misleading. As you must know the NIE report specifically states the weapons program was SUSPENDED in 2003. That is a far cry from your blanket statement. Your mischaracterization continues with your erroneous argument about Iran’s right to the acquisition of CIVILIAN nuclear knowledge. When you are trying to prove a point you need to work with facts as they are and not as you conjure them up to be. Should you ever get to defend a poor sap in any court, this sort of demagogic logic would be a godsend to the prosecutor.


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F4T

by Anonymouss (not verified) on

Practice what you preach, like many your hate for Bush has put you in the lap of Mullahs.


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Monopoly on the truth

by F4T (not verified) on

No one holds a monopoly on the truth. If some Mullah happens to speak it then it shows that a simple approach of 'us' against 'them' is too simplistic; things are not black and white as people such as George Bush try to suggest.
-------------------------------
And being 'pissed off' doesn't give anyone the right to allow their small-mindedness to pollute this debate forum. Less beligerance in your approach might be more effective. Passion without control is counterproductive. Try not to personalise the debate.

F4T


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Repetition of the Islamic Republic argument

by Anonymous, (not verified) on

This is almost the verbatim argument which is continuously made by the Islamic Republic and its supporters including NIAC/CASMII. As a matter of fact Ayatollah Kashani did so during this Friday prayer sermon at Tehran University. Was there a circular on it?


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To F4T

by pissed off (not verified) on

Look asshole. I made not comment about the content of the article. I have no delusion as to what is really going on in the world. My comment was strictly about the author's lack of Iranian pride in not using Persian Gulf. An yes, I am pissed off that a so called "Iranian" website allows an article to be published that refers to the Persian Gulf simply as "the Gulf". Now if you have a problem with my attitude, then fuck off. I make no apology for it.
A proud Iranian from the shores of the PERSIAN GULF.


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Timid hits the nail on the head

by F4T (not verified) on

It's not about Nuclear technology at all, it's about US hegemony and Iran's independence is seen as a threat to them. This is not to say that people who have understood this are pro-IRI, or Anti-American, as many of you seem to think.

Blind support of American interference in the Middle East is harmful and invidious. No Iranian should favour such US policies or presidents or presidential candidates. Yes, Iran under the Mullahs is corrupt, as it was under the Shah but the only way Iran can change is by Iranians themselves taking responsbility from within Iran. No one said it should be easy. Interference from the West has been going on too long and any true Iranian while being against the current regime should also be for an independent Iran.

Obama may be the best of a bad bunch, from this perspective, but he has the backing of Zibignew Brezhinsky who is no angel when it comes to international geopolitics and interfering with Iran. Google him.

In the long run, until America gets rid of its own corruption, there will always be conflict in the Middle East and with Iran. The elite who run the West benefit from this.

Food for thought


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Sounds Like 'Pissed Off' doesn't like the truth

by F4T (not verified) on

To be Iranian does not mean ignoring the reality of what actually goes on in the real world. The article is well-written and balanced.


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US and UN and Israel must

by Wondering (not verified) on

US and UN and Israel must simply admit that the international laws are inadequate. They are being dishonest by not clearly stating this. If they don't want to follow the NPT law then they must say so. Well, Israel doesn't even like reducing its nuclear weapon arsenal and therefore has refused to join the NPT.


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Khersamback, baz ghaltahye

by Anonymous11 (not verified) on

Khersamback, baz ghaltahye ziyadi kardi lard...Have you no shame you fat tub of lard. Your family must have gotten so rich from stealing the Iranian people wealth and that's why you have no shame to whore yourself for the immoral regime.


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This Topoli is a Mullah regime's Lobbyist in US

by Salar (not verified) on

And he has gotten fat on all the petro dollar his daddy and friends are stealing from iranian people and sending him to nicely fatten up in US.

He has no shame to show he is true anti-iranian and a arab lover by calling it the "Gulf". what? the name persian gulf bothers you fatty? or your masters won't give you your share of the petro dollar if you call it that?


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topol mopoli

by Anonymous1234 (not verified) on

Topoli, mageh khatare jang shodeh baaz? I thought that the threat of war was over. What are you doing writing about war again? did "they" tell you to get back to your desk and start writing again?


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Vote for Obama

by Ali Tabesh (not verified) on

Dear fellow Iranian-American friends and colleagues:

I am writing to urge you to vote for Senator Obama on this coming Tuesday – known as Super-Tuesday. Senator Obama has shown us wisdom, intelligence, readiness to serve the country with dignity. Barrack Obama is not campaigning for the rights of one particular group. He is campaigning for the rights of human beings. See for yourself in this video what the Senator Obama is all about!

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGGIHqIoP2k

His position on domestic and foreign policy is very clear. Since started his campaign he has not changed his position on any of the issue which our country, the United State of America is facing.

Many of us came to the country after Iranian Revolution and now we are getting closer to retirement. Senator Obama's health care plan addresses our needs in the near future. He has not received any money from drug companies and he has not affiliated himself with many different lobbyist groups in Washington.

His position on Iran our beloved motherland is very clear. Let's talk to the government and let's force them to respect the international law.

In contrast Senator Clinton was the guest of Iranian lobbyists in both West Coast and East Coast, where each plate was charged between $1000 to $5000 for fundraising. In return, Mrs. Clinton, who accepted the contributions and ate the Persian Dinner, has voted against Iran just couple of month ago.

We truly want someone in the White House who can serve the Nation from DAY ONE and can make a RIGHT DECISION from DAY ONE. As of today, Mrs. Clinton has not admitted that her vote on War was wrong.

The name of the United States of America meant a lot to people around the Globe, it was magic name, something that we could be proud of. It reminds me the video when President Kennedy welcomed the Shah of Iran in 1961, and what the Shah said about the United States:

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1a5TAepYXs

Let get the magic back, let's vote Obama!

As a reminder people in NJ can vote on Tuesday for the Senator. Thank you for your support.

Sincerely yours,
Ali Tabesh


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problem is elsewhere

by timid (not verified) on

The problem the US has with Iran is not about nuclear weapons or knowledge. It is not even support for terrorism nor is it human right or any other slew of things that are mentioned constantly by our "analysts" or "experts". The problem is Iran's independence. If Iran was a client state of the US, everything would be fine. Saudis and other Arab states have a far more reprehensible dictatorship and human rights abuses than Iran does yet they are euphemistically referred to as "moderate Arab States" by the US regime. Pakistan has nukes, it is a heaven for terrorists yet it is considered an ally.
Iran dare choobe esteghlalesh ro mikhore. End of story.
Every government from Morocco to Pakistan has a US stooge as a leader who takes orders from the White House. Iran and its client state Syria don't take orders from Washington and that is the problem. This is simply not acceptable to US hegemony and they will do all they can to change this. Even if an excuse does not exist, they will invent one.


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You call yourself Iranian?

by pissed off (not verified) on

"in a speech in the Gulf.."
You call yourself Iranian asshole? Where is the "Persian" prefix?
.
To the editor of this crappy site: Why is this kind of butchery allowed on this site? I know Iranian.com is a misnomer and this site is full of anti-Iranian articles but for crying out loud, there is a limit to everything. Get you act together to rescue whatever is left of your reputation of being Iranian. Jeez!


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Bush will attack Iran before leaving

by markux (not verified) on

March or April is when Bush is attacking Iran. No doubt.