Iran's NSP predicts economic collapse, then political implosion

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FG
by FG
10-Dec-2009
 

NSP is the National Security Panel, they gather& crunch data independently, and give reports to Expediency and NSC.

ITEM: NSP estimates the Government will run out of resources by next month, regime imploding within 60-90 days.

ITEM: NSP asks Expediency council to enact emergency regulations allowing a peaceful transition by unseating (cont) //tl.gd/1790c

ITEM: Around 10% of Iran’s population are with regime (IRGC/BASIJI/Officials) & 70% against regime. (Expediency’s Statistics office).

ITEM: The Ministry of info has become dysfunctional after replacing 200 directors, 800 senior analysts & staff with IRGC Intel & Basijis

People say these statistics sort of explain why R. doesn’t care for “Unity plan” anymore. He knows it’s too late. The regime has committed too many horrible crimes thereby alienating too many -- including a large percentage of people who once supported it and voted for Ahmadinejad.

SOURCE The report apparently hasn't been made public and I suspect the regime will do everything to suppress it. The info provided here apparently came from a leak and was provided by MikVerbrugge who seems to have had access to inside sources. At least some of his stuff has proved accurate in the past. What I've posted here appeared in the responses section to an article about Rafsanjani and the unit plan. The posts from Adam there speculating on Rafsanjani's motives in saying “if the people no longer want us, we must leave” are especially interesting in this context.

If the government is that deep in economic troubles, I'm sure the costs of paying Basilj and other volunteers to constantly crush street demonstrations isn't helping. Already many workers haven't been paid for weeks or months and when they speak up, the regime jails their spokesmen. When the crisis hits, I wouldn't be surprised to see a general strike. There have been unconfirmed rumors that Khamenei, who reminds me so much of Romania's Ceaucescu, has been making pressures for departure in event of such a collapse. Like Slobodan Milosevic, he'd couldn't expect to remain free in Europe or the West. I guess his best bet would be Russia or Venezuela, though it's unlikely the Chavez regime will last for years.

//enduringamerica.com/2009/12/10/iran-analysi...

A few months back, MikVerbrugge leaked a an alleged preliminary report from the Iranian parliament looking into crimes against prisoners. Though I've seen nothing about that since, you'll have to judge for yourself whether MikVerbrugge was inaccurate or whether he described the findings accurately and they were subsequently suppressed. The findings name names and may be pretty scary bit given what we've learned of the regime's behavior since--including some of the men specifically mentioned--it is highly plausible.

 

Insider : on the Independent Truth finding report

Interim report of Majlis Independent Truth finding committee (Larijani’s committee, not the National Security Coucil’s) is devastating for Coup. Shocking revelations. Ali Larijani is being briefed on it today.I assume that the most horrifying parts will be classified & only reported to Majlis, leadership committee, Government Officials as well as Expediency & Experts.

  • The number of dead/abducted is estimated around 400 & rising.
  • Arab mercenaries role proven.
  • Systematic rapes proven.
  • Radan personally involved. (see below)
  • Taeb personally involved. (see below)
  • Ahmadinejad personally involved.
  • Yazdi personally involved.
  • Janati personally involved. Covering up.
  • Fadayi personally involved. he was in charge of Kahrizak and an interrogator (testimonies of victims). He reported directly to Ahmadinejad.
  • Mojtaba’s role is very much visible in findings. All roads end at Leader’s Camp at desk of Mojtaba & Vahid.

An Article 90 Commission needs to be activated to indict & investigate Government members, and remove their diplomatic immunity for Judiciary to prosecute. It may also be dealt with as treason, which would be prosecuted by a Military Tribunal.

Many victims & police officers have made affidavits indicating Taeb & Mortazavi have raped & tortured prisoners. Same goes for Fadayi and Radan. The committee has hundreds of interviews with victims that independently confirm the same events took place all over Iran. Medical examinations leave no doubt about rape & torture. Numerous medical reports and Doctors’ affidavits are in file. More than 50 witnesses.

One affidavit reads: “Then Sardar Radan came in & said go get these these boys pregnant, so they know what we do with revolutionaries.”

Taeb is only know to have raped Taraneh Mousavi. (Policemen testified) Taeb’s brother in law is related to a Taraneh Mousavi who lives in Canada. When Taeb was screening the list of detainees, he saw her name and immediately ordered her delivery.Then he realized that the girl was not his relative. Guards say that they had to leave the room, and heard her screaming and asking for help while Taeb yelled and beat her. After 30 minutes or so, Taeb had her removed from his room and told guards to send her to “Special Treatment Room”. Guards realized that she was beaten and raped, her clothes torn. The Special Room is where they have their specialists rape people. Taeb also issued her Death fatwa, ordering special team to kill her when they’re done.

What has happened is just unbelievable. It is a lot worse than rumors so far. Rumor is one thing, but official investigation with proof is another.

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Did you see that

by sag koochooloo on

the photo of the Taraneh M who is alleged to have been raped/murdered WAS on the desk, so this person exists/ or existed. But he put her card to one side. He picked this other girl's details.

Another thing is that the mother lied about this other girl. She said that she came to Iran a year ago, while the man at the desk said she has not returned to Iran. Why would she lie about her own daughter?

Are they actors?


Fair

sag koochooloo you are right on

by Fair on

Thank you for continuing to expose the rapist criminals running our country.

Such desperate far fetched measures just make it more obvious that this criminal regime is guilty. A regime like this can easily bring the parents of the girl in the picture of Taraneh Mousavi as well as the girl herself and prove once and for all that they did not do this and it is a downright lie.

Why don't they?

Instead, they rely on amateur pathetic people like Mannya to question the very existence of the victim, or obvious made up far fetched stories like the one fabricated in this official IRIB TV clip you posted..

Such pathetic attempts at making this crime just go away will only make things worse for them. No matter how much they wash their hands, the blood somehow does not come off.

Keep it coming.

 

-Fair


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Iran Tehran IRIB's Big Lie Over Death Of Taraneh Mousavi

by sag koochooloo on

This video shows that the girl they said was in Canada that is called Taraneh Mousavi is not the girl that they claim was raped and murdered. Why did they make this video, which is about the picture of another girl with the same name? Why has the girl's real parents and she herself not come forward? This should have been done by IRI, otherwise the claims will go on until refuted.


Fair

Yes Vildemose, only a sick murderous

by Fair on

twisted person could stand up here and defend such criminals.

Or perhaps someone whose job is to defend such criminals.

Mannya, perhaps you could explain why if Taraneh Mousavi does not exist, and if the Islamic Fuehrer's gang is innocent, why the Fuehrer's government has not launched a full investigation, calling for the parents of the girl in this picture to come forward and tell their story and clear up any misunderstanding there might be. Provide full transparency, show the national id of the person in this picture, interview her on TV, and get a public denial of this alleged atrocity, which has been alleged by many wintesses and sources. This in a country where parents of victims are warned to stay quiet or face even worse punishment.

Until you can do that, YOU are the one who should stop the k** sher, and stop defending murderers and rapists of your people. In the meantime, you can go to vevak and tell them, "nobody is buying our crap, we are clearly as daylight perceived as idiots, and go spend your 20million USD on something useful- like some island that Seyed Ali and AN can run away to so they can rape each other every day".

Shame on you and your pathetic stance. The people of Iran do not forget these things.

-Fair


vildemose

@fair

by vildemose on

"her name sounds like it is fabricated" isn't going to change that.

Only a criminal who feels very guilty can come up with such twisted, warped justifications. I guess  this type of provincial and ludicrous propaganda work on zombified basiji true believers.


Masoud Kazemzadeh

only 10% support the nezam

by Masoud Kazemzadeh on

according to former fundamentalist official and top thinker Akbar Ganji, "the social base of the regime is about 10% of Iran’s society."

//zamaaneh.com/idea/2009/08/post_539.html

 

  پایگاه اجتماعی رژیم: برخی بر این باورند که رژیم فاقد پایگاه اجتماعی است. اما واقعیت آن است که رژیم دارای پایگاه اجتماعی اقلیت است. مجموعه‌ای از نظرسنجی‌ها، پیمایش‌های بزرگ اجتماعی، و درصد آرای انتخابات مختلف نشان می‌دهند که پایگاه اجتماعی رژیم در حدود ۱۰ درصد جامعه‌ی ایران است.

 

 


mannya2001

Thank You Kazemzadeh

by mannya2001 on

Dear FG,

"I took a quick look at the links, but was unable to locate a link to EC's staticstical center or someone in the EC leaking the info.  If we could locate a credible source from the EC's Statistical Center indicating this, it would be a very powerful data. "

In other words, Dear FG, stop the  k _ _ o  sher!

Enough Said!


Fair

Mannya2001

by Fair on

FG put it well, but I will add to the response to your absurdity:

You can put the burden of proof of cases like Taraneh's on the victims THE DAY THAT THE SYSTEM IN IRAN IS TRANSPARENT AND ACCOUNTABLE.

Until then, the burden of proof is on the regime to defend itself for the crimes it has commited. And you can be sure- THIS REGIME WILL BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE FOR ITS CRIMES AGAINST THE IRANIAN PEOPLE AND AGAINST HUMANITY.

No amount of rewriting history or pathetic attempts like "her name sounds like it is fabricated" isn't going to change that.

There are just too many cases of rape, torture, mass arrest of peaceful demonstrators, closure of newspapers, imprisonment of reporters for you to give yourself the right to suggest ridiculous assertions that you have.

 

-Fair


pedro

Mort Gilani Jan,

by pedro on

Indeed, killing him  is a favor to him, his disgusting beeing is sickenning.

I only wished I could translate this to english for all to read. Un fortunately this piece need some one with translating skills beyond me.


I Have a Crush on Alex Trebek

lol masoud who cares about sources?!?! not you!

by I Have a Crush on Alex Trebek on

this is from the man who accuses people of being spies and agents without evidence. just cite a comic book or wikipedia and get on with it.


Mort Gilani

The Begining of the End

by Mort Gilani on

Although the numbers do not seem exaggerated, I’d love to see this report validated by some experts or officials. I recently read in gooya.com that the central bank of the regime has only 4 billion dollars in reserves.
Pedro:
Thanks for the post about this sadistic personality, Mesbah. I believe as a strategy the Green Revolution must remain non-violent, but as a tactical move, someone should kill Mesbah ASAP. Iranians will be better off when this animal wags his tail in heaven.


FG

Boring? Hardly. Unreliable? We'll see.

by FG on

Poor Mannya.   If it were boring, why so many readers. All of Iran is eager to see this hated regime gone, however much that idea may bore you.  I'll bet you are making a bundle off persecuting the mass of Iranians.

Poor Mannya even tells us that Taraneh wasn't raped and her body dumped aside the road.  Right there, your pedigree is showing.

Your thugs have committed so many crimes why would they spare Taranah?  If people now believe this regime is capable of anything, who caused that but the rulers through so many visible crimes.   See Neda's murder, recent arrests of mourning mothers, phony show trials, etc.  So where are the people in your mass graves.  Vacationing in Europe I suppose.  What about the forced confessions produced by a combination of horrific torture and threats against relatives.  Are you saying the regime didn't make such threats?

By the way, people keep asking: "Why would a regime capable of rape, murder and torture of innocents hesitate at rigging an election?  Every time Khamenei makes that denial people snicker.  The man combines his self-achieved laughingstock status with his new role as the most hated man in Iran at the same time. 

Khamenei is an Iran's Ceaucescu, cynically stomping his own people solely in order to increase his wealth and power and relying on his security forces to get away with it.  Did it work for Ceaucescu?  Nope.  And it won't work for Khamenei.

Regarding the Supreme Thug's endless denials of the rigged election, my advice would be, "Give it up already.  No one believes you because they've seen what you are capable of."

I'm reminded of the soliloquy that opens Shakespeare's Richard III.  So ambitious for the throne of England that he can taste it, the York prince bring talks about how "many lives lie between me and it (the crown), urges his audience to watch as he disposes of those obstacles, and and closes by asking his audience, "Can I do all this and not seize the crown?  Tut, were it further off I'd pluck it down?."  Fix an election?  No problem for a man as immoral as Khamenei.  The problems have come subsequently as they did for Richard and Ceaucescu--men who also came to believe they could get away with anything.   The despised Super Sleaze too is finding out differently. 


Shazde Asdola Mirza

Fascist IRI regime should go to hell and join Hitler & Stalin!

by Shazde Asdola Mirza on

Every voice counts! Every action counts!


Masoud Kazemzadeh

Thank You FG

by Masoud Kazemzadeh on

Dear FG,

I took a quick look at the links, but was unable to locate a link to EC's staticstical center or someone in the EC leaking the info.  If we could locate a credible source from the EC's Statistical Center indicating this, it would be a very powerful data.

I accept the 10% as the social base of the regime, but want to find an inside source accepting this. 

Again, thank you.

Best,

Masoud


pedro

I will print this over and oner again.

by pedro on

مردم بیائید مصباح یزدی حرامزده را بیشتر بشناسید:بخوانید و بشناسید جانیان و کثافتن تاریخ ایران و جهان را: مصباح یزدی روزی در ماه مرداد ۱۳۸۸ به همراه احمدی نژاد در چاه جمکران حاضر شد و به سوالات بعضی‌ از حضار پاسخ داد و فتوا صادر نمود. برخی‌ از سوال و جوابها به این قرارند: ۱. آیا اعتراف گیری تحت فشار و شکنجه روحی‌ و روانی‌ و جسمی‌ اعتبار اسلامی دارد؟ ج: اعتراف گیری از ضد ولایت فقیه به هر شکلی‌ جایز است. ۲. اعتراف گیری با استفاده از مواد مخدر و افیون و داروهای کدوینه جایز است؟ ج: اعتراف گیری از ضد ولایت فقیه به هر شکلی‌ جایز است. ۳. آیا بازجو میتواند به زندانی تجاوز جنسی‌ کند و اعتراف بگیرد؟ ج: احتیاط واجب آن‌ است که قبل از اینکار حتما وضو بگیرد و هنگام عمل ذکر گوید. اگر زندانی زن است هم از فرج هم از دوبر دخول اشکالی ندارد. بهتر است در محل بازجویی کس دیگری نباشد. اما اگر زندانی مرد است احوط است در حضور دیگر بازجویان دخول صورت گیرد. ۴. اگر زن زندانی حامله شود تکلیف چیست؟ ج: فرزند ضعیفه ضد ولایت فقیه مطابق نس قرآن مجید در هر صورت حرامزاده است چه توسط بازجو باردار شود چه توسط شوهرش. ۵. آیا تجاوز جنسی‌ در زندان به مردها و پسران جوان لواط محسوب نمی‌شود؟ خیر. چون زندانی بدون میل و رغبت به آن‌ تن داده است. البته اگر جوان مفعول خوشش آمده باشد احتیاط مستحب آنست که دیگر این عمل تکرار نگردد. ۶. تجاوز به دختران باکره در زندان چه حکمی دارد؟ ج: اگر قرار است زن را اعدام کنند، برای بازجو به اندازه یک حج تمتع واجب ثواب دارد و به همان اندازه بر گناهان دختر افزوده میشود. اما اگر زندانی قرار نیست اعدام بشود، به اندازه زیارت کربلا برای بازجو ثواب دارد


FG

To Massoud K. regarding sources

by FG on

My source here is admitedly second hand is cited from the Expediency Statistic office at the link I mentioned.   In that case, I suspect the source is Rafsanjani or someone close to him since he heads the committee.


mannya2001

Boring & Unreliable

by mannya2001 on

I mean its one thing if the government can lie to old folks and fool them.  Its another for FG to try and fool educated people.

First, can you name Taeb's brother in law who lives in Canada. 

2.  Case of Taraneh Moussavi is still not proven.  Also given her name sounds like it is fabricated.  Her first name means "music"  last name similar to candidate moussavi.

3. Never underestimate the other side or else you will fall into the same trap as many before you who imagined and wished only to be disappointed.  Be realistic and plan ahead


Masoud Kazemzadeh

Dear FG

by Masoud Kazemzadeh on

Dear FG,

You wrote:

ITEM: Around 10% of Iran’s population are with regime (IRGC/BASIJI/Officials) & 70% against regime. (Expediency’s Statistics office).

 

 

I would be most grateful if you would place a link to where you got this. This is also the number that many, including Akbar Ganji, cite. I would like to use the source if you have it.

Thank you.

MK

 


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Re: The country’s wealth is

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

The nation's wealth is the people. That is the real wealth of any nation. I wish that damned oil had never been found. It is an addiction worse than opium and we must get off it.

Once the Mullah regime is gone the people can start using their potential. We out in the west should start to work with the youth in Iran to build international businesses. Damn the oil. We will do a lot better by opening factories and engineering firms. With the sanctions gone the GNP will sky rocket and we won't need the "oil". India is doing just fine without it and so will Iranians.

VPK


Fair

They should rape Taeb, Radan, AN, Mortazavi, Rahbar,

by Fair on

and all these people. That's right, capture them and rape them repeatedly. Then release them into the streets and see how long they last. They should be ok if 91% of the people are happy with the current form of government!

 

-Fair


vildemose

The country’s wealth is

by vildemose on

The country’s wealth is firmly in the hands of the regime’s elite families. More than 80 percent of the country’s gross national product comes from the petroleum industry, which is entirely in government hands. The mullahs have effectively ruined this primary source of national wealth: Oil production is currently around three million barrels per day. It was 6.2 at the end of the shah’s rule. According to a study released by the National Academy of Sciences on Christmas Day 2006, oil exports are expected to decline by upwards of 10 percent a year for the foreseeable future.

• According to the International Monetary Fund, Iran requires a crude oil price of at least ninety-five dollars a barrel. The drop in crude prices to below fifty dollars a barrel is very destabilizing, since it seems the Iranian stabilization fund has only enough money to buy imported gasoline for a year, and it may well be even less than that.

• Inflation reached nearly 30 percent in October 2008 and it's probably much higher now.


vildemose

The anti-regime sentiments

by vildemose on

The anti-regime sentiments among the people has become so widespread, according to the Wall Street Journal, that "Iran has entered one of those hinge moments in history. What is certain is that the status quo has become untenable".


FG

About that "rehashed lie." As for Chavez...

by FG on

A "rehashed lie" is the best denial                                               Orientalist can come up with--this from a guy who supports a regime that also denies prison rapes and provided six differen explanations for how anyone but Khamenei and Co. killed Neda?  

This from a regime that claimed Tavakoli tried to escape its thugs (they had no business in arresting him in the first place) by dressing as a woman and wearing a hajib.  Considering he is shown with a full beard that day in so many videos and pictures that backfired and has now produced some great satire from the opposition.  How would a hajib do a bearded guy any good?

Orientalist is relearning what Goebbels had after Stalingrad, This approach to propaganda works well only so long as things are going well for a regime.  The moment it clearly isn't yet lies persist, no one believes anything the regime says anymore.

Another problem: when you have been known to commit so many horrible crimes and endlessly captured in flagrante delecto (in the act), people will believe anything of you and denials never work.  That applies a thousand times as much in the case of Taeb, Jannati and the former Special Prosecutor mentioned in the report.  Mojtaba's leading role is all too well known and was the subject of special complaints from high Ayatollahs.

As for the reader who suggested Venzuela is more likely to accept the Supreme Murderer and Torturer than Russia, you are right.   The only problem is the Chavez' regime may not outast Iran's regime by much.


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Their only bolt hole is Venezuella

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

Russia will not provide the IRI butchers a safe heaven. They are too close to Iran and need good relations with what replaces IRI. Chavez on the other hand is a bone head who does not need Iran. He will gladly provide a safe place for the IRI "leadership". My suggestion to AH and Khamenei is to bolt NOW! Save us the trouble and maybe live out the rest of their miserble lives in relative peace. Remain in Iran and face the wrath of the people.

Payandeh Baad Iran

VPK

 


QLineOrientalist

This is a rehashed lie

by QLineOrientalist on

FG is just peddling a lie from August.

//mikverbrugge.tumblr.com/page/2

 


Maryam Hojjat

Horrifying truth about detainees!

by Maryam Hojjat on

But I hope this news from NSP id true and happens within predicted period which is very short.

Payandeh Iran & Iranians