Breaking news items suggest the regime is about to arrest the saintly Karroubi

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FG
by FG
12-Sep-2009
 

ITEM #1: The three-member judiciary panel investigating Mehdi Karroubi’s claims of abuse of detainees has declared they are false.   

COMMENT:

After the show trial “confessions“ the final justification for the arrest of top opposition leaders is now in place.   For reasons noted in my analysis below, Karroubi’s arrest is unavoidable now.   Whether Moussavil, Rafsanjani and Khatami are arrested may depend on what they do now.

An an earlier post noted, Khamenei carefully planned the slaughter of thousands back in the late eighties.  This time he is stuck with a rush job thanks to unanticipated circumstances that change rapidly.  Two huge handicaps didn’t exist in easier times.  First, Khamenei can no longer control what the public learns of his crimes.  Secondly, he faces the impossible job of discrediting a saint admired for his bravery.  

If a revolution must have its blood, the regime--having tortured, raped and murdered so many innocents, is now about to have a martyr or martyrs.   Knowing persistence would lead to crucifixion, Karroubi refuses to turn aside.  In visible contrast to Khamenei, this is a man who cares deeply for his people.    

ITEM #2: The National Security Coucil supposedly has barred any forbidden news items from carrying any mention of “Karroubi,” “Moussavi” and “Presidential Elections.”   

COMMENT:

The regime hopes it van stop the public from being inflamed by new of  its crucifixions.  Everyone knows why that hope is futile.

ITEM #3: Hashemi Rafsanjani, a strategist famous for tactical withdrawals has apparently backed off criticism…for now.

COMMENT:

I suspect Rafsanjani has been warned of his arrest unless he shuts up.  If other leaders are seized, Rafsanjani’s martyrdom would accomplish little, especially since the Assembly of Experts, which can replace the Supreme Leader and which Rafsanjani heads, will meet four days after Quds.   Given preceding regime behavior, who knows what will happen?  Obviously Rafsanjani’s presence is critical.  If he gives the regime an excuse to act now, Khamenei won‘t hesitate.

ITEM #4: Khamenei allegedly drew up the document ordering Khamenei’s arrest “at least” two weeks ago (NY Times)


WHY ARREST KARROUBI NOW?

The regime had hoped--up to now--that it could somehow preserve the illusion of legitimacy and eventually win back popular support,.  Considering that this is a regime justified by religion and headed by a supposed moral exemplar, Karroubi’s persistence in investigating horrific crimes against political prisoners too away  all such hope.  

Karroubi simply refuses to let go even if it kills him.  It’s his persistence which has now placed the regime in a choice between bad and bad.

Khamenei has always known that to arrest any of the four top opposition leaders, especially if they could not be discredited, would be a disaster.   On the other hand, the regime can’t afford any further exposure of its horrific crimes against young and innocent human rights demonstrators.  For one thing it is increasingly evident that Khamenei sanctioned both the crimes and the coverups.  For another, many prominent high officials-apparently took a direct hand in the torture and rapes, possibly including Khamenei‘s own son, Mojtaba.   The latter alone would give Khamenei no choice.   

It’s possible the regime may await the reactions of Moussavi and Khatami before making more embarrassing arrests.   As for Rafsanjani, his temporary withdrawal may not save him.   Both Khamenei and the Republican Guard can see value in detaining him until after the Assembly of Experts meets.

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Iraneh Azad

Cinema Rex?

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One of these moves by Khamenei may finally be fatal to the IRI as it will be a catalyst to a much larger revolt by the population.


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Warrant also out for Mousavi rumour

by Shepesh on

that Khamenei has now approved an arrest warrant against Mousavi, see article:

//pajamasmedia.com/blog/khamenei-wants-mousavi-arrested-and-broken/

I have also been informed that they are looking in the raid for documents to show that the CIA had issued to Mousavi and karroubi. Mousavi has responded in his 11th statement: Such documents will be produced through fabrication, and the rumors that are circulating these days will materialize: the arrest of Mousavi and Karoubi.


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by Shepesh on

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FG

Why Karroubi must release his material NOW--before Quds

by FG on

For the regime, it would be preferable to wait until just after Quds to arrest Karroubi.   Any earlier arrest will throw gasoline on the fire that day. Once Quds is over, the regime won't wait.

Therefore the best time to release all available info on prison torture, rapes and murder is NOW!   That will precipitate Karroubi's premature arrest.  Imagine the impact both events would have on the size and anger of Quds demonstrators.

 


FG

Raids showed Karroubi investigstion had discoved far too much

by FG on

Security officials have had enough time to examine documents caputured during a raid on Karroubi's HQ.  I suspect what they found there was way too "hot," both in the nature of crimes and which top officials were involved. 

The only reason Karroubi hasn't already been arrested then is that the regime is trying to eliminate witnesses--victims, guards, family, etc--identified in those documents and to eliminate all other copies to the extent possible.