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You say you want a revolution? Not now, mate, can't you see we're busy?

"It's the economy, stupid," was the focal message around which Bill Clinton organized his against-the-odds 1992 campaign victory over President George H.W. Bush. The incumbent had presided over the soft landing of the collapsing Soviet empire and driven Saddam Hussein's armies out of Kuwait having achieved full U.N. backing for the operation. But foreign policy chops counted for little in the face of the economic pain Americans were feeling as a result of a recession, and Bush found himself pilloried as a to-the-manor-born lordling for not knowing the price of milk.

Fast forward two decades and the message may well be the same: Not that President Barack Obama has scored any significant foreign policy victories, mind, but the onset of a renewed recession is likely once again to make concerns over the economy the focus not only of an angry electorate but also of political leaders, not only in Washington, but also in other Western capitals. It's the economy that will increasingly set the limits on commitments Western powers are willing to make abroad, whether in the form of military intervention or even of aid. And, on the flip side, it will be economic pain that will increasingly serve as the main driver of rebellion and political instability across the global spectrum.