Sanctions to what end?
FT / FT
24-May-2010 (one comment)

Sanctions and underinvestment have cut Iran’s oil production capacity by at least 300,000 barrels per day, depriving the country of billions of dollars of revenues.

The slow development of new oilfields and the poor condition of many existing wells have caused the fall, according to Iranian and western experts.

“Oil production capacity has dropped by probably about 300,000-400,000 bpd,” said a former senior official in Iran’s government. His figures were consistent with those of a western oil official. The period over which the dip has taken place is uncertain. Oil industry experts, however, say it has come about since Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad became president in 2005.

At that time, capacity was about 4.2m bpd; today it has fallen to about 3.8m or 3.9m. A major cause has been the government’s decision to sack many of the oil industry’s most experienced managers.

The latest figures issued by the central bank suggest that actual output is substantially below even the reduced capacity, with Iran producing 3.53m bpd during the second quarter of last year, compared with 4.1m recorded in 2005. Iran’s oil ministry has denied any fall in the country’s production capacity. //www.irannewsdigest.com/2010/05/24/sanctions-hit-iranian-oil-production/

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vildemose

Sanctions hit Iranian oil production

by vildemose on

Would sanctions force the current regime in Iran to change its stripes? No. The regime is relentless in its pursuit of nuclear weapons, and will continue to negotiate in bad faith hoping to stall action until they can present an atomic fait accompli.

But sanctions and diplomacy can shape the course of domestic politics within Iran and I think that's the real goal. Best U.S. bet is to pursue those politics that will empower Iranian people to topple the regime from within.



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