Another Iranian Revolution? Not Likely.
New York Times / Flyntt Leverett and Hilary Mann Leverett
06-Jan-2010 (3 comments)

THE Islamic Republic of Iran is not about to implode. Nevertheless, the misguided idea that it may do so is becoming enshrined as conventional wisdom in Washington.

For President Obama, this misconception provides a bit of cover; it helps obscure his failure to follow up on his campaign promises about engaging Iran with any serious, strategically grounded proposals. Meanwhile, those who have never supported diplomatic engagement with Iran are now pushing the idea that the Tehran government might collapse to support their arguments for military strikes against Iranian nuclear targets and adopting “regime change” as the ultimate goal of America’s Iran policy.

Let’s start with the most recent events. On Dec. 27, large crowds poured into the streets of cities across Iran to commemorate the Shiite holy day of Ashura; this coincided with mourning observances for a revered cleric, Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who had died a week earlier. Protesters used the occasion to gather in Tehran and elsewhere, setting off clashes with security forces.

Important events, no doubt. But assertions that the Islamic Republic is now imploding in the fashion of the shah’s regime in 1979 do not hold up to even the most minimal scrutiny. Antigovernment Iranian Web sites claim there were “tens of thousands” of Ashura protesters; others in Iran say there were 2,000 to 4,000. Whichever estimate is more accurate, one thing we do know is that much of Iranian ... >>>


Op-ed on why current unrest won't end up like 1979

by DM on

They make some valid points, but with more certainty than is justified. We don't know what is going on behind the scenes in the IRI and neither do they.


Sheila K

nation in paralysis of fear

by Sheila K on

The problem is execessive fear. It's real and raw and cruel beyond any man's imgination.

the 1979 revolution occurred cause Shah didn't fight back the way Islamic hardliners do. Shah didn't terrorize, kidnap, torture and execute in masses the way Islamic regime has for the past 30 years. Shah was brutal, but not as brutal as the IRI.

There was fear during the Shah's reign, but the IRI' has it's own brand of fear. It's the IRI's brutality that has paralyzed the nation. To kidnap your kids, spouses, mothers or fathers can bring any activists to their knees.

There are no rules with IRI, they just do whatever it takes to maintain power. However, there's hope. People have grown and want to evolve into the modern world. Things will shift.

Shifteh Ansari

Hillary Mann-Leverette

by Shifteh Ansari on

Watch her and the other Iran "expert" to see how out of touch they are with what is happening in Iran.

Part 1://

Part 2://