Iran's Green Wave
The Nation / Robert Dreyfuss
03-Jul-2009 (3 comments)

Of course, it's not a revolution--not yet, anyway. Although opposition crowds swelled from several tens of thousands at pre-election rallies to perhaps a million or more afterward, the regime controls a vast repressive apparatus...And the opposition's leaders are not exactly revolutionaries...But there's no denying that for the first time since the1978-79 revolution, which led to the Islamic Republic, Iran's leadership is confronted with an explosive and unpredictable challenge: from below, a mass movement whose street energy and high-tech organizing savvy spread from Tehran to Isfahan, Shiraz, Mashhad and other cities. And within the elite there is a swelling wave of dissatisfaction with the narrow-minded radicals in power, who are blamed for having squandered the country's oil wealth, mismanaged its economy and forced Iran into a crippling regime of sanctions that have walled it off from the technology and foreign investment it desperately needs. As a result, Iran is at a crossroads.

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rosie is roxy is roshan

Update: oh, boy, did you see THIS ??

by rosie is roxy is roshan on Sat Jul 04, 2009 08:33 AM PDT

 from Ostaad's latest contributed news.

Were you aware of it? Had you heard the sermon?

Khamenei's sermon also contains a clear warning that the regime is prepared to provoke a bloodbath to maintain its hold on power. Khamenei says that had the Shah killed half a million people he would not have been overthrown. He criticizes the Algerian Front for Islamic Salvation (FIS) for not having called the masses onto the streets and provoked a bloodbath by confronting the army. "Had they brought the crowds onto the streets there would have been an Islamic government in Algeria today," he says. "But they were afraid and showed weakness." With admiration, the "Supreme Guide" recalls the massacre of one million Communists in Indonesia under General Suharto that he claims saved the system in that country.

//www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=2&id=17281

 


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rosie is roxy is roshan

David,

by rosie is roxy is roshan on Sat Jul 04, 2009 05:45 AM PDT

:

Yes, it is a good overview for non-Iranians (as well as for those younger 'Iranicans' who may be struggling to grasp things. I think as an English-language and non-Iranian news contributor, that should be part of what I should do: provide overviews, schema, etc. Anyone who thinks only Iranians are reading this site especially at this point in time is on acid. lol

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in essence is at this stage who is at whose mercy if ever any rift occurs : Khamenei or IRGC? For now the two compliment one another and their existence very much rely of one another but the IRGC can eventually (if not already) become THE RULING MILITARY REGIME that even can dispense and substitute Khamenei if desires? OR just do away with Vali Faghih in a more democratic PR show but still hold the power !

I first got a whiff of this situation this past April in the last couple of paragraphs of this post from Mammad:

//iranian.com/main/comment/reply/60594/159995

and subsequently from him:

//iranian.com/main/comment/reply/67262/183839

 

Following was the brilliant but horrific analysis of the making of the coup in the video interview with Pepe Escobar which as you recall explains exactly this power of the IGRC, along with the bone-chilling expansion of and then official consolidation with the Basij in the months pre-election.

//iranian.com/main/news/2009/06/16/struggle-within-iranian-elite

As you quite correctly pointed out, he is Latin American. He knows from coups.

So, yes the question is to what extent does the tail wag the dog? (and to what extent there ever was in fact a tail versus a dog..)

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Today I found a marvelous new video from Escobar which I am planning on posting as a new news contribution. However I am providing you the link now. He does an in-depth analysis of who these shadowy figures are behind the behind the scenes, beginning with one very sinister Jafarri. You know  him, of course, but I did not. You will like the video a lot. You may already know the content but you will certainly appreciate Escobar's depth and scope as a journalist.

//www.bravenewwave.com/2009/07/02/real-news-networks-pepe-escobar-on-iranian-election-the-revolution-was-not-twitter-there-was-no-revolution/

Interestngly., although he does paint a rather grim picture at the end of the 'election' fallout, i.e. coup, he also at the very end resonates with your point exactly No matter what, they will rise. This is part of what I refer to as the "Persian genius", it is a genius for both felxibility and endurance at the same time and you can even see it in the very structure and lexicon of the language.

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(Cultural part lol) As far as the conquerors assimilating, it goes far eyond that-to expansion, a kind of leavening process. Imagine the entire Moghul Empire in India (which we in the West tend to think of as "the real" Indian culture-was simply Persified Mongols gone sedentary. Another one is the Abassid Caliphate. I feel many people here give it a bad name. They speak oif the "Arabization" when in reality equally the expansion of the Caliphate and its endurance were due to its Persification-as I'm sure you know better than I, from the very building of Bagdad as capitol precisely so the Persians could administer the Caliphate, they knew they were way over the heads. Imagine, two great empires, saturated with 'Persification'. 

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So yes, I agree with you, it is something that endures. Morphs yet endures. Unvanquishable. Incapable of complete submission. And regardless of Escobar's grim view  of the militarization for near future in the new video, now is the time. This is the moment. It must be seized.  These groundswells don't keep up momentum and other NON-VIOLENT forms emerge,This is the opporunity at very least to begin.. It cannot be lost.

 And we have to be part of it. On this site. Finally the time has arrived when the expat community CAN be relevant...and I think many people here are starting to realize that. The true potential of this site has yet to be harnessed.

But it must be. Now.


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David ET

Good wrap

by David ET on Fri Jul 03, 2009 09:52 PM PDT

I caught the article after Huffington Post mentioned it and sent it to couple of non-Iranian friends who like to have a finger on the pulse. 

Article has fairly painted the picture of where things are in a capsule.

The part that caught my attention for presenting a two way picture was about Khamenei vs. IRGC . It was something that I was going to write about but there is so much to say and sometimes if I dont say when the chance comes I may never get opportunity , so here we go and I may still expand on it later or refine and put in my blog, So here we go in summary:

From the article you posted:

"Ahmadinejad has installed scores of ex-commanders from the IRGC throughout government ministries and as governors and local officials in all thirty provinces. Ahmadinejad's cronies have created a powerful clique loyal to Khamenei but, at the same time, encircling the office of the Leader. The conventional wisdom--that the Leader is the all-powerful commander in chief, while the president is an elected figurehead with little real power--may be tilting, if it has not already been turned on its head. "

My view:  

Question in essence is at this stage who is at whose mercy if ever any rift occurs : Khamenei or IRGC? For now the two compliment one another and their existence very much rely of one another but the IRGC can eventually (if not already) become THE RULING MILITARY REGIME that even can dispense and substitute Khamenei if desires? OR just do away with Vali Faghih in a more democratic PR show but still hold the power !

Of course this is just looking at the two without putting other factors: People, opposition etc in to the picture.

Because one important factor that Both Khamenei and IRGC are missing is that Iran is NOT Pakistan, Iraq , Central America etc...

Iranian can not and will not accept a FULL military dictatorship with guns and clubs in the street. They just prefer to die or fly than live that way!

That is just a no-no in Iranian history and completely in contrast with Iranians and even Shia culture (shia was anti establishment at its incept and that is how safavid sold it: ...Hussein etc) .

Even when foreigners such as Alexander, Arabs,  Monguls, etc... attempted to rule Iran by force they eventually were at best assimilated to Iranian culture and identity (Parthians, Safavid, Timurids, etc) if not totally overthrown! Iranian culture is too versatile and compassionate to allow any military rule for too long and at best the smart rulers had to take a compromised approach if they wanted to continue to rule or they did not last., This can happen even from within because there is a limit that the lower rank individuals even within the ruling would take orders against their nature, people, culture and core beliefs.

The regime so far had Islamic justifications but it no longer can mainatain that face too long and that is why they are using guns , fear,  murder and oppressions just hoping to make it die fast , SO THAT THEY CAN GO TO NORMAL STATUS SO THAT THEY DONT SHOW THE GUNS ANYMORE, instead of long lasting military rule in the streets, and make people wish for safety , Food and security instead of democracy!

 

By the way good title you picked ;-)

//iranian.com/main/blog/david-et/iran-crossroad 


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