Stealing the Iranian election
intormed.comment / Juan.Cole
14-Jun-2009 (7 comments)

It is claimed that Ahmadinejad won the city of Tabriz with 57%. His main opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is an Azeri from Azerbaijan province, of which Tabriz is the capital. Mousavi, according to such polls as exist in Iran and widespread anecdotal evidence, did better in cities and is popular in Azerbaijan. Certainly, his rallies there were very well attended. Sofor an Azeri urban center to go so heavily for Ahmadinejad just makes no sense. In past elections, Azeris voted disproportionately for even minor presidential candidates who hailed from that province.

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rosie is roxy is roshan

Juan Cole's take on it

by rosie is roxy is roshan on Sun Jun 14, 2009 07:31 PM PDT

I found his arguments about the evidence for the fraud to be very compelling, while I found his scenario of a mid-stream decision to rig the election rather far-fetched. I thought Sick's argument of premeditation prior to the election far more plausible, with evidence given. I think when they vetted him. They just didn't expect him to go as far as he did.


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rosie is roxy is roshan

Five.more.reasons

by rosie is roxy is roshan on Mon Jun 15, 2009 04:48 AM PDT

1..Head.of.Sepaa.warned.Moussavi.two.days.before.the.election.that.

there.would.be.no.Velvet.Revolution.

2.Swiss.Intelligence.right.before.election.predicted.a.coup.

 wit.100%.confidence.based.on.inside.sources,.not.speculation.

They.are.the.intermediary.between.US.and.IRI..They.know.a.lot.

of.people..

3.After.Khatami.winning.with.such.a.landslide.why.should.it.be.sooo

very.different.this.time/..That's.ridiculous.

4..Why.would.they.let.the.Green."Wave".win.right.after.killing.a.

blogger,.closing.Ebadi's.offices,.decimating.the.unions,the.cemetery,

etc.Right.after.the.worst.crackdown.in.years?.Why?I.think.they.

just.didn't.know.how.far.Moussavi.would.go.and.he.fell.out.of.favor.

with.the.King.

5..Iran.has.a.two-thrid.urban.and.one.third.rural.population,.yet.

the.results.are.exactly.the.opposite..This.sounds.more.like.a.

practical.joke.than.anything.else..You.see,.everyone.else.seems.

to.be.saying.how.can.they.claim.fair.elections?..I.don't.think.they're.

doing.that.at.all..I.think.they.are.just.thumbing.their.nose.at.

the.Iranian.people.and.the.whole.world.and.saying.we.can.do.

whatever.we.want.and.you.can't.stop.us.

I.think.they.are.showmen.and.they.are.very.good.at.spectacle.

One.example.of.spectacle.with.the.world.as.captive.audience.was

after.all.those.years,.announcing.Delara.Darabi's.execution.date.

two.days.before.the.sentencing.of.Roxana.Saberi..I.could.go.on.

and.on...The.point.is.I.don't.think.they.expect.anyone.(okay.

okay.MOST.people).to.believe.them..I.think.they.are.just.the.

PT.Barnum.from.Hell.


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It's a little hard to show

by Chris (not verified) on Sun Jun 14, 2009 10:56 PM PDT

It's a little hard to show evidence of anything when the Iranian government has all the information locked away.
Besides the fact that they've had plenty enough time to doctor any evidence to make it show whatever they want by now.

Also there were no observers during the vote counting.

And as for a recount, Khameni already ruled it out and certified the election, much earlier than is regulation by the way.


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Juan Cole is an idiot

by Anonymous on Sun Jun 14, 2009 10:52 PM PDT

he is been one of the biggest supporter of regime and all of sudden he is changing colors...pleassssseeee.

he was the one who was thrilled that Obama wanted to talk to Ahamdinejad

give me a break....

Obama and Cole look like a fool right now...there were too eager to give this regime legitimacy,


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Another...

by Anonymous Irani (not verified) on Sun Jun 14, 2009 10:47 PM PDT

9. How can 40 million paper ballots be counted in a few hours to declare the winer?


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nojanthegreat

there is one thing missing

by nojanthegreat on Sun Jun 14, 2009 09:00 PM PDT

there is one thing missing here, evidence all Mr. Cole is suggesting is theories. the Iranian vote by old fashion way ( papers) . well let stop

talking about it and do some action.

Mr. mossavi need to show us evidence of fraud.

name the stations that have been suspected for fraud. you know whets so funny in 1986 I think , in election , Mr. mossavi the prime minister went on and say how we can have fraud in election with this many observers. let see what this observer have to say. the monitor the election process. where was the problem and hey they can recount the vote. you cant just say you don’t accept the result because your gut tell you. we Iranian are complex people you an trust what we say lol

he is from khameneh in Azerbaijan , so is khamenie is he loved there ? ahmadinejad also was the governor of ardabil next to Azerbaijan.

as I say most of this are he say she say or theories.

3 days has past and mossavi have not yet show where we should look at for fraud. You cant just dismiss the election if your guy is not winning it .


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This article is worth being elevated to front page...

by Anonymous Irani (not verified) on Sun Jun 14, 2009 08:22 PM PDT

Good article. Here are two more reasons:

7. The uniformity of AN win across the country seems a lot like Madoff's yearly returns -- consistent across! Maybe he was consulted on how to fix. Natural phenomena are never so dandy.

8. According to a recent interview with ex-student-prisoner Ahmad batebi who had been in the same prison wing with ex-regime-intelligence-personnel is quite telling on how IRI works: once someone (or an event in this case: the election) is considered against interests of the regime, he is given a warning and if ignored, it is sufficient (and proper) for Ayatollah Khamenei to issue a fatwa for intelligence personnel to eliminate that person. Then everything is religiously legal and proper. This was the basis for chain murders of Khatami era.

Fixing of an election is not (morally) harder than eliminating individuals; Khamenei is quite capable of issuing a fatwa to switch votes and it is interior ministry's religiously legal responsibility to put the fix in.


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