Iranian Liberal Democrat

  Gingrich Urges War with

 http://www.juancole.com/2011/11/gingrich-urges-war-with-iran-and-skyrocketing-oil-prices.html

"It is the chain of communicat­ion, not the means of production­, that determines a social process."

-- Robert Anton Wilson

 "Battleground

 "Battleground Iran:

"Romney aides acknowledge if the former Massachusetts governor becomes the Republican nominee, it will be difficult for him to draw foreign policy contrasts with the current commander-in-chief.

But there is one issue on which the Romney campaign believes Obama is vulnerable: Iran.

In fact, the campaign recently decided to make Iran the centerpiece of their foreign policy strategy, believing it to be the most sensible point of attack, as well as a potent counterpoint to the inevitable Obama campaign boasts about bin Laden and Libya.

"Iran is a unique kind of threat," said Daniel Senor, one of Romney's close foreign policy advisers, in an interview conducted over the phone and via e-mail. "It directly and unambiguously threatens core American interests: the security of the American homeland, the security of our access to vital resources in the Gulf and the security of America's close ally, Israel."

Campaigns often have a slogan that encapsulates their foreign policy stance. For the Romney campaign, Iran is the bumper sticker. Their argument on almost every aspect of foreign policy -- China is a clear exception, because it is in a different part of the world and presents a unique set of challenges -- flows from the premise that Obama's failure to slow or stop Tehran's steady march toward a nuclear weapon has made the world more dangerous..."

 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/22/mitt-romney-iran-obama-gop-foreign-policy_n_1104519.html#comments

"It is the chain of communicat­ion, not the means of production­, that determines a social process."

-- Robert Anton Wilson

It might work

However, full sanctions is hard because Iran has something of value that other countries can't live without and this will increase the oil price (~5-10 % chance of increase if all nations boycott iranian oil)...

Also if deals are broken with the west (US don't import iranian oil as it is today), then most probably China and Russia will come and buy the rest of the shares of iranian oil, not to mention India etc. 

Most probably you would need to bomb iranian oil fields if you want to turn it off completly and that is is something I would never support.

Nevertheless, I don't think Iran will ever get nuclear weapons simply because of the reason that the IR knows they would be beaten with a much greater force. The main fear is if Iran manages to secretly create nukes and smuggle them to Israel. But then again, that is a fantasy scenario and the world would still know who did it and punish accordingly. So basically the whole situation is in status quo. There is no reason to have any fear. The question which the US should engage in should be human rights, democracy and condemning Khamenei. This is something the US and the west never will do...

This whole battle between the US and Iran exists because iranian revolutionaries attacked the american embassy back in the beginning of the revolution and the americans are still "oghdei" about it and the fact that Iran never wants to kiss americas ass like the saudis. If the incident would never have happened (many iranian officials also regret this although in secret), then iranians would have the same relationship as saudi arabi have with the US, minus the military installations. This is the other side of the coin which people tend to forget. However, the focus should still be on removing the IR from Iran today...

Dear Dr. MK, Probabilities of 1st event is 0.99 and 2nd 0.01!

Unfortunately!