Who is Exporting Iran's ...

Iran is a rare big

Iran is a rare big oil-producing country where economic conditions have worsened despite a tripling of oil prices. The oil today is being traded at $101 a barrel.

Even $100.00 a barrel oil is not enough to keep Iranian's economy afloat as Iran spends foreign aide capital from man power from Afghanistan to Gaza and almost all points in between. One must include in this calculation the monies spent bring both the Busher Nuclear Plant and the Uranium Enrichment Program online. As the supreme leader is the head of Iranian National Security the blame lies with Ayatollah Khamenei for a Uranium Enrichment Program requiring massive amounts of electricity that is off the grid for use to stem domestic shortages. Such state directed power usage is the hallmark of a Command Economy driven from the top down. We shall see shortly how Supreme Leader Khamenei uses his powers as the leader of Iranian Foreign Policy, National Security, the Armed Forces and Chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to mold all policy in Iran under his imprint.

In December and January on three separate occasions, Iranian IRGC Speed Boats simulated attacks on US Navy Ships in the area of the Straits of Hormuz. On these three occasions, oil at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) was at or very near the technical barrier of $100.00. The attacks by the IRGC were an attempt to goad the US Navy to fire upon the speed boats thus creating an International incident that would shatter the $100.00 barrier. Instead, the US Navy coyly handled the simulated "attacks" as to not alarm World Oil Markets while the Iranian government was forced to call the incidents nothing out of the ordinary.

The mere fact that Iran cannot fund all its liabilities with $90.00 or even $100.00 a barrel oil is telling in the extreme. What we see in Iran is a country exhausted and overextended as were the Soviets. Although no firm number is available, the crumbling Iranian economy appears to be reaching the tipping point as did the squalid economy of the Soviets in the late 1980s where military spending reached 25% of the budget.

Providing even more evidence of Iran's failing economic system the leadership has refused to import Turkmenistan Natural Gas as higher world market prices are beyond the apparent purchasing power of the government. What a grim irony for the supreme leader that the very energy prices Iran sought to drive up in the Straits of Hormuz are too great for Iran to pay at home.

Also of import, was Iranian friction with Russia over the costs of construction at the Busher Nuclear Plant. It would appear the budget of the Command Economy is bursting in many areas.

For further irony one need only understand that Iran imports substantial amounts of gasoline and natural gas and subsidizes the price to far below world market prices as there is little refining capacity for either fuel in the domestic market. Instead of investing in refineries to supply domestic needs, the supreme leader has invested in a Nuclear Power Station and a Uranium Enrichment Program that has yet to turnout a Kilo Watt for public consumption, while the Enrichment Program is a major user of energy that could be on the domestic power grid.

Some in Supreme Leader Khamenei’s economic and political harem are calling for economic reform in Iran saying the economics of the Iranian Revolution have gone their natural course. Of course, these comments are made without attribution and without the criticism of the weighty National Security top hamper hanging over Iran’s economy.

The weight of these issues of economics and finance has the supreme leader politically decoupling himself from the elected leader and mouthpiece, President Ahmadinejad. This is a battle Mr. Ahmadinejad cannot win, for in Iran, criticizing the supreme leader is tantamount to criticizing Allah.

As for the looming Parliamentary elections March, almost seventy percent of the Reform Candidates are off the ballot, while the rest of the parties are small and fractured to the point that no unity for real change is possible. Small fractured political parties are to the benefit of the supreme leader creating a vacuum where the leader that makes virtually all the decisions that are never publicly challenged and the leader himself never criticized.

With new UN Sanctions in the works, the Iranian Economy directed by the Supreme Guide will remain a command economy where the needs of Iranian foreign policy and National Security including both Nuclear Programs comes first and the domestic needs of the Iranian people come last. True reform is achieved from the bottom up, but the Iranian people must decide where that bottom is first.

http://fechancellor.newsvine.com/_news/2008/02/03/...

Imports rise because of oil price increases

Dear Fariborz,

If you try to use your mental powers for a micro second, you will realize a $1,9 million dollar increase in imports can easily be related to increase in oil prices.

Are you really proud of the islamic Iran?

Censorship and Freedom of Speech

JJ and other admin,
Freedom of speech/expression is an absolute right in this society.

In your site you pretend to be an advocate of it by saying nothing is scared (what a joke!). Practically you are much worse than Mullahs. They don’t know anything better, you know and with your censorship with no real reason, downgrading yourself to the same level as mullahs!

This is my opinion that 'Ying Yang Paintings' in main page of Iranian.com is a trashy painting, and you don’t have any tolerance to hear it.

Go head again and delete my comment again as you did for past 13 hours.

Now is not the painting anymore it is your action and censorship that portrait you to the same low level as Mullahs.

Who is Exporting Iran's wealth, how and where to?

I have tried to find - UP TO MY OPINION - the appropriate answer and found on the other day the following news. Please acknowledge, is very interessting: Japan's imports from Iran rise! Just imagine!
Fri, 22 Feb 2008 14:40:43
Japan has increased imports from Iran.
Japan's Ministry of Finance has announced that the Islamic Republic has increased its exports to the country during the last month.

The ministry also pointed out that Iran decreased its imports from Japan in January, IRNA reported on Friday.

According to the ministry's statistics, Japan's imports from Iran rose over 149 billion yen ($1.39 million) in January.

The current figures indicate an increase of 91% in comparison with last year's figures at the same time.

Japan's exports to Iran stood over 12 billion yen ($112 million) during the last month, which shows a decrease of 5.1% compared with the same period in 2007.

The Islamic Republic mainly exports crude oil to Japan.

On Tuesday, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad described historical relations between the two countries as friendly and said Tehran welcomes the development of ties with Tokyo in varioust fields.
The news finds a basical importance when one remembers that Iran imported permanently 90% of its Foodsupply. Not only bananas but also strawbery, radish and, what was most shamefull for the Moslems, even BREAD and and and. All only from western countries and USA. No wounder that the Nation prefered either to die and be pushing up the daisies or conquer over devils and make its own bread. So the honourable Iranian Nation founded its ISLAMIC REPUBLIC, which is now Exports Rise to japan even more that in the past. I find this is only one example of the unnegligible successes which Iranians have achieved during the last 30 years. I feel deep respect for them.
Abstract:
1.Who is Exporting >>>>> Iranian Farmers
2.Iran`s wealth>>>>> Rise
3.How>>>>> For appropriat, regular and fair Prise. 4.Where to>>>>Japan
The answer which i have found makes me happy for the Iranian Nation. That Nation was not motivated primarily by material reasons to pull through the ISLAMIC REVOLUTION. However the Economy had also its priority. Iranian Culture and Economy are now both saved. Greeting

Dear Faramarz I cannot

Dear Faramarz

I cannot but agree with you. I currently live in Vancouver, Canada and it's amazing the number of religious families and individuals (still somehow keeping their hijab) investing huge amounts of money here, specially in real-state. It's very common to see them driving the best and latest models of Mercedes Benz and BMWs, even at the universities. You've to be here to see it. Then you have the average middle class iranians, well educated but without money, doing jobs for which they're veru overqualified. I wondered what these rich neo-hezbolahis are doing here and the only answer I come up with is that they know things will change in Iran sooner than later and therefore it's better safe than sorry.  We left our country not to see them again and here they are everywhere around you. Another curiosity I have is, where did they get so much money from?

Kamangir

Properties

We hear akhonds buying lots of properties in the west particularly in Canada and wasn't that Pasdar leader whose son was kidnapped by NASA ended up buying islands in Carabeans?! Anyhow, I wonder why opposition groups with their vast resources do not investigate these "purchases" and money laundering by akhonds and provide a honest and decent report to people?!

Dude....what you been smoking?

I want some!!

Someone like you should not worry about sources or comment on serious subjects.

Stick to what you know; ie. nothing

Dude

Dude, where did you get all these numbers you throw around?

Dude, just because you say it is so, doesn't make it true.

Dude, 7.5B of 1978 at 6% inflation which is way too low for iran is 27Bn in 1998. At 20% inflation, which is more like reality, the 7.5B of 1978 is 400B in 1998.

Dude, you don't know what you are talking about.

Analysis says Iran's oil

Analysis says Iran's oil revenue is going to be Zero by 2015

A new study by Roger Stern, an economic geographer at Johns Hopkins University has published in this week's edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that the Islamic Republic could soon run out of oil to export. "Iran earns about $50 billion a year in oil exports. The decline is estimated at 10 to 12 percent annually. In less than five years, exports could be halved, and they could disappear by 2015, Stern predicted."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

Stern faults the inadequate investment (hostility to foreign investment to develop new oil resources) and mismanagement (poor state planning) and sheer negligence by the mullahs as the main causes of declining oil exports.

The decline is estimated at 10 to 12 percent annually. Stern also informs us that the poor managment and inadequate care and maintenance of the refinaries contribute significantly to the loss of revenue and waste of precious oil, "If we look at that shortfall, and failure to rectify leaks in their refineries, that adds up to a loss of about $10 billion to $11 billion a year." "That is a picture of an industry in collapse."

Iranian oil production, which has been the main industry in Iran since the 1920s accounts for more than 65% of the nation's overall revenue. Iran earns about $50 billion a year in oil exports. He also points out that Iran's Oil Peaked in the 1970s and has been on a decline since the early 1980s. (see definition of Peak Oil).

The original forecast by EIA

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/iran.htm...

(Energy Information Adminstration) was that Iran will run out of oil by the year 2025. However, I think the mullahs are looting the oil revenues at a higher rate and not re-investing the revenues to maintain their only source of profit. That's what happens when a bunch of uneducated mob are at the helm of fourth larges oil producing nation.

This is quite frightening for a nation who's main source of revenue is oil. Iran has been investing in everywhere else in the world except Iran to the determinant of the Iranians future.

I have no doubt the murderous regime is fully aware of this fact and that's why they have chosen to expand their domination in the region unwisely to compensate for their incompetence.

Blinded by Islamic fanaticism, inaptitude and hubris, they have squandered and exhausted the oil resources to line their own bulging pockets and have invested the oil revenue in Dubai, Iraq, Lebanon, Somalia, etc. Instead of re-investing the money to replace and upgrade the antiquated oil industry infrastructures build by the Brits in 1920s, the regime has chosen to give $12000 cash per person to shameless Southern Lebanese welfare queens and kings and building them schools and hospitals and offering them free health care. And god knows how much more to Hamas et al while 40% of Iranians live below poverty level and the GDP of around $2800 and per capita income of only $8600 (Peru and Thailand have the same per capita income althought they are not oil producing countries)

SEE CIA FACTBOOK on Contries

Orginal link:
Roger Stern *
Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, The Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218

Edited by Ronald W. Jones, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, and approved October 31, 2006 (received for review May 16, 2006)

The U.S. case against Iran is based on Iran's deceptions regarding nuclear weapons development. This case is buttressed by assertions that a state so petroleum-rich cannot need nuclear power to preserve exports, as Iran claims. The U.S. infers, therefore, that Iran's entire nuclear technology program must pertain to weapons development. However, some industry analysts project an Irani oil export decline [e.g., Clark JR (2005) Oil Gas J 103(18):34-39]. If such a decline is occurring, Iran's claim to need nuclear power could be genuine. Because Iran's government relies on monopoly proceeds from oil exports for most revenue, it could become politically vulnerable if exports decline. Here, we survey the political economy of Irani petroleum for evidence of this decline. We define Iran's export decline rate (edr) as its summed rates of depletion and domestic demand growth, which we find equals 10-12%. We estimate marginal cost per barrel for additions to Irani production capacity, from which we derive the "standstill" investment required to offset edr. We then compare the standstill investment to actual investment, which has been inadequate to offset edr. Even if a relatively optimistic schedule of future capacity addition is met, the ratio of 2011 to 2006 exports will be only 0.40-0.52. A more probable scenario is that, absent some change in Irani policy, this ratio will be 0.33-0.46 with exports declining to zero by 2014-2015. Energy subsidies, hostility to foreign investment, and inefficiencies of its state-planned economy underlie Iran's problem, which has no relation to "peak oil."

On of the misconceptions about the Middle East is that it is a region not only with lakes of oil, but regimes wishing to maximize the use of such lakes. These are misconceptions on two counts: 1) not all lakes are economically equal, and 2) most regimes are out to maximize income, not maximize production. These two things, taken as a basis for work and reasonable, based on the attitudes of the regimes involved, then let a closer examination of Iran and its oil reserves to be done. The article starts with an overview of the petroleum sector of Iran. Here the basic understanding is that some of what is produced goes for internal use, and the rest for export, thus a balance between production and consumption must be maintained for steady export. Now, no proper study of such a thing can be done without a colorful graph and they do provide a nice one in 3D, showing the total quantities of each. I, personally, would have preferred a line graph with production and then consumption overlayed with the difference between them being exports as it is more visually appealing and a better rendition of the data. Be that as it may, here it is:
What is seen from this, then, is that save for a drop during the war with Iraq, Iran has had a steady increase in production that has been plateauing since the late 1990's. There have been upticks over the last few years, but also notice that there are subsequent declines, this the article attributes to some better oil recovery techniques on older fields, opening of old oil rigs damaged in the Iraqi war, and not continuous increases in production or new production coming online.

http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/060390310...

Well said

Dear Faramaz-Fateh;

You delicately bring up a sensitive subject, one that thousands were persecuted for and many more thousands lost their lives over.  29 years later the same mistakes are being repeated.  We Iranians like most of humanity do not learn from history.  The Mullahs erroneously think simply by involking the name of God and Quran will be safe from the wrath of the people.  If people decide god will buried in two seconds along with him/her the billions siphoned out of Iran.

Sources?

Dear Friend:

 Would you mind sharing what your source of information (regarding $4.7 Billion and $27 Billion) is?

Respectfully,

Ali P.