A political analysis of Iraqi freedom
November 11, 2002
Saddam's Baghdad is finally ready to fall. The Kabul-like fall of Baghdad is
expected in the not too distant future and the internal revolution by Kurdish and
Shi'ite elements will drive the final nail in the coffin of Saddam Hussein. This
is Saddam's last sigh and there will be no major war to take him out but rather a
coup d'etat will occur. He has lost trust of the praetorian guards who used to protect
Iraq has treated its befallen leaders with the greatest of ridicule and insult. The
dragging of the bodies of the Iraqi fallen presidents and prime Ministers is in the
memory of every student of Middle Eastern history. Saddam and his clan are allegedly
slightly cleverer and may not suffer the fate of Ceausescu
of Romania. Indeed they may take refuge in a radical Islamic state such as Sudan
where they can use their billions to live a discreet life.
However the treat to share the pie has already started. New Iraq will become the
centre of a Middle East that may see the final demise of OPEC and the northern, central
and southern oil fields of Iraq would serve as the cannon fodder that will spew money
to the Kurdish, Sunni and Shi'ite masses who have been denied the basic necessities
of life by their despot whose notorious lust for blood and war has destroyed the
entire fabric of Middle Eastern culture. It started with Iran and has continued since
It would be futile to deny the culpability of present superpowers, who helped Iraq
build its huge weapons arsenal as a counterweight to the revolution of Shi'ite Iran.
The distant vision of Western strategists to impose half-cooked solutions on the
oldest civilisations or rather the regions, which are the cradle of civilisation,
is one of the basic causes of totalitarianism in the Middle East.
From the propping of the Shah of Iran against the wish of the masses to supportinng
the creation of the mujahideen in Afghanistan to counter the Russian invasion of
Afghanistan and to halt the aspirations of the communists down the warm water ports
of the Arabian Sea, have proven to be unjustifiable and irresponsible strategies.
Hindsight is always an advantage but supporting history always makes sense.
It is not democracy that will help build strong structures in the societies of the
Middle East, where centralised authority is ideologically emphasized. It has to be
a controlled version of democracy until the populace is culturally literate to differentiate
between mass propaganda and realities of life.
Cohabitation and coexistence is not a lesson that Islam, the major force of the region,
provides to the people of this region. On the contrary Islam provides consistence
struggle for domination of Allah's Kingdom on Earth and as such a soft hand and a
benevolent approach to straighten abrasions of ideology are very much required.
At the moment Iraq, Iran and the entire Middle East are at such crossroads. Their
journey towards new frontiers of enlightenment has not even started. They are still
trapped in the Dark Ages in this age of knowledge. For them removal of Saddam will
be the beginning of the fall of despotic idols in the region. It would not bring
chaos because these despots they seem to bring chaos to the nation but on the grass
root level suffer acutely from the necessities of life as most of the state is used
to serve the interest of the totalitarian dictators.
Post-Saddam Hussein Iraq will be a new country and will be a possible confederation
between Kurds, Shi'ites and Sunnis. Iraq, with its huge reserves of oil, has the
potential and possibility of a potent secular nation proving to a strong counterweight
to Saudi Wahabi led government. One after-effect will be definite since once the
taps open up there will be a lot of business for countries who will lead the freedom
of Iraq although though the entire change of regime is not about oil.
The grip of Middle Eastern oil will loosen up with a "Karzai" type government
in Baghdad. A Chelabi, Hakim and Talebani led Iraq may achieve its full potential
of churning out 8-9 million barrels of oil in five years time. On one hand in the
interim there will be a good boost to all equipment and it will be a bonus to Western
economies since oil prices will drop to 15-20 dollars a barrel.
The freedom of the people of Iraq after a long period of enslavement is the biggest
dividend of a free Iraq. Although the freedom of Afghanistan, although people still
believe the policy to free Afghanistan was not good enough, has ensued in the education
of a million women the most prized windfall one could have expected. Free Iraq will
help, like a liberated Afghanistan, alleviate tensions at the heart of the Crescent
of Islam and that is very important at this day and age.
A free world cannot afford to have totalitarian dictators who may use ideology to
create tensions between civilisations. Saddam Hussein is one of those potential who
in the 90s and now have tried to create new tensions in the region by expanding the
war into territories that may lead to all-out Arab-Israel conflict. His hands are
tied now and his generals realise that the noose is being tightened thus tensions
won?t last for long and collateral damages in the region will not be high.
The control of Russians, Chinese and French companies over Iraq will wane. LukOil,
Total Fin, and others will have to plead for their share of the pie form the pro-Iraqi
leadership, which will be pro Anglo-Saxon. Thus there was an economic reasoning for
Russians and French to be upset about UN Security Council resolution, that may help
It was not the Americans who were looking for oil benefits
from the Middle East since the Security Council resolution was being delayed so that
the exact price of corporate interests of French and Russians could be negotiated.
The real traders were Franco-Russian governments who wanted their pound of the flesh
from Iraq's new government until they were guaranteed access they were not agreeing
to the Security Council resolution.
The ideological collateral benefit of an Iraqi wakeup would be that Kurdish in semi-autonomy
will curb Turkish Islamism as Turks will realise that Kurds in the region could effectively
put a federation together if ideology takes front seat in Turkey. The Turkish army
will not be able take on domestic Islamists or Kurds, the Kurdish freedom of Iraq
would help induce some moderation within Turkey's right.
The Shi'ites of Iran may owe a gratitude to the Anglo-American alliance for liberating
the Shi'ites of the south of Iraq. Hakim is a well respected leader of Shiites of
south and has working relationships with the Anglo-Americans. Although these are
Akhbari Shi'ites, who have Arab origins, these are the very Shi'ites who have significant
sway in southern Iran and eastern Saudi Arabia.
In this state of confusion where there has been a lot of propaganda that change of
Saddam is change of the stalwart of Islam it will be a fresh breather for mutilated
Shi'ite societies of Iraq to be seen being freedom by an Anglo-American alliance.
That will calm down a lot of emotional imbalance due to recent events between Palestinians
and Israel as Shi'ites achieve some kind of freedom in South of Iraq.
There is a pressing caveat though since liberating nations is a thankless job. Millions
of Muslims in Bosnia and Kosovo were freed by American intervention but not many
remember however in cut throat politics of the Middle East any calming measure and
positive step, albeit small, would be very helpful. The Sunni centre of Iraq under
Chelabi and the new army of Iraq may prove to be an island of stability.
It is under Saddam, definitely a very secular country
and its army is secular as well whilst being modestly well-trained by Arab standards.
This army, shorn of Saddam's cronies and top generals, may have a balancing act and
may help to plug the vacuum that may be created in the region. The biggest impact
of the change in Iraqi regime would be the notice served on Syrians and other Arab
"rejectionist" states who may see the Ceausescu-type elimination of Saddam
as an eye-opener to free their societies and let realism rule the Middle East.
It may be helpful in the long term eliminate the self-denial and self-pity of the
Moslems of the Middle East and may finally open up their eyes and stand up to the
reality. There is no doubt about it that there will be one big loser and potential
oil deliveries from Iraq and that would be OPEC. The winners will be the billion
who consume the oil and ironically it may be the very Anglo-American alliance to
be the biggest winner of them all there can be no denying.
Even a poor country like ours will benefit a lot and who can say shy away from the
fact that in the present day and age it is the winner who takes it all.