The pragmatic conservative
The man who wants to save the mullahs November 21, 2003
The Iranian
 A recent article in the German magazine Spiegel features
a brilliant idea man who may just be the one they're grooming to
replace Khatami.
The article profiles Mohammad Javad Larijani, who is a powerful
member of Iran's ruling class. This is a class that consists of
high ranking Shiite clergy, their relatives and close allies, with
almost exclusive control of all commerce, business and anything
that will produce political power and influence.
The men in this
group are mostly the offspring and close relatives of the ruling
Shiite clergy, many of whom are educated abroad, many in the
United States and the Western Europe These are the backbone of
Iranian regime's administrators and managers, also called the Islamic
technocrats!
Doctor Javad Larijani who apparently holds a PhD in mathematics
is the son of a middle ranking ayatollah. Daddy's connection, as
well as his fluency in English has apparently done him good. He
has been in several political positions, including
deputy foreign minister and member of parliament.
The Spiegel article introduces Larijani as a "pragmatic
conservative" and
a respected ideologue for the Islamic theocracy who sees a bright
future for the Islamic Republic. Larijani's optimism
for the future of the regime arises from his vision for an economic
bloom, similar to that of post-Mao China, which resulted in the
fastest growing economy and enormous improvements in the people's
standard of living, without having to give up the dictatorial and
centralized one-party rule or allowing social reforms.
I'm
sure that such a solution would appeal to the likes of
Larijani. Apparently he believes you can implement an economic
and industrial renaissance, and at the same time withhold
the much needed social and political freedoms and keep the populace
under the strict and unconditional rule of the ayatollahs.
There are so many holes in Larijani's theory that one is almost
embarrassed to even attempt to counter it, as I can hear
the collective "Duhhh!" coming from the readers. But
I just can't help it. At the very least, maybe Larijani will
read this and realize that although his head is stuck in
the snow, everyone can see him and his brilliant ideas for what
they really are!
Doktor joon, when Mao's successors began their
economic revolution, they had a few essential ingredients that
you guys do not and will
not have. The first thing was an environment that is inviting
to anything foreign, not only foreign investments but foreign
people, tourism and the open cultural exchange with the rest
of
the world that will be an essential ingredient of such a renaissance.
Your father's cronies have setup a closed theocratic fortress
that has actively and dutifully repelled any meaningful exchange
with
anyone worth exchanging with. Before the post-Mao Chinese leadership
could start herding the peasants to foreign owned factories
to assemble the billions of toys and gadgets that turned around
China's fortunes, they had to make foreign investors and partners
believe
that China was stable, dynamic and receptive. How much help
do
you think smashing a photographer's brain would have been to China's future plans?
Foreign investors
require a day when a foreign female can walk the streets
of Tehran or
Isfahan and sit in a sidewalk cafe without the fear of harassment
from
bearded juveniles. But thankfully, your system is fundamentally
and inherently incompatible with the creation of such conditions.
The second big problem with your doctrine is the people's
expectations. The political awareness and expectations
of Iranian youth,
who make up nearly three quarters of the population, and
are your regime's number one problem, in no way
compares with
the Chinese
population back in the late 1970's and 80's when they
began implementing
their plans.
In the age of widespread access to the Internet,
personal blogs, satellite TV and the ever-increasing
exchange of ideas with
the rest of the world, people's expectations are
far above and ahead of Chinese peasants, most of whom didn't
even know
something like television or the computer existed.
Therefore, the Islamic Republic is out of time. The people
were ready for grand plans 25 years ago.
The Chinese
model
worked for a post-Mao China as a next move, rightfully
expected for that milestone and a way to keep the most
populated country
on Earth from falling into starvation, chaos and anarchy.
It was time for it and no one held it back or resisted
it.
Larijani's
brilliant idea would have been quite perfect as a fresh
post-Khomeni switch and people would have jumped
on it. They could
have
even changed directions when they put on that Khatami
show back in 1997, but they took the people for granted again.
But the
Islamic Republic has squandered all opportunities
for a positive
change of direction in its 25 years of existence and
ploys like this doctrine are exposed as what it is; just a scheme
to keep current rulers from sharing their exclusive
power!
Larijani is
a U.C. Berkeley-educated mathematician. My question
is what the hell was he doing during the years he spent
in
California
of all places? Did he live in a closet or a basement
somewhere? How
could he have lived in such a beautiful, peaceful,
and freedom inspiring place and end up being an
ideologue for a repressive,
murdering theocracy?
How could he have gone to UCB
library
and
mingled with the youth from all manner of cultures,
attended lectures and classes where they discussed
and exchanged
ideas freely and
then end up condoning a system that puts a young
student in years of solitary confinement simply for the "crime"
of picking up a bloody
T-shirt
from the pavement and displaying it to the public?
How could he produce any work of authorship as a scholar
or
thinker
and then
end up in a band of thugs who kill a woman just
because she snapped some pictures outside a prison?
How could he be a student of mathematics, science
and history and not see that he's part of a
brutal power
grab that
has no way to go but down?
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