Operation isolation
Rolling back Iran’s influence in time for a showdown

June 21, 2007
iranian.com

Many analysts have often stated that Iran is the primary benefactor of America’s “War on Terror.” The experts’ analysis, however, may be a little short-sighted. Prior to the start of “War on Terror,” Iran was virtually surrounded by two hostile regimes: Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan. With the demise of these regimes at the hands of U.S.-led Coalition Forces, Iran has emerged as a major regional powerhouse.

Iran’s Islamic government has nurtured the Shia Islamic parties that now wield enormous power both in Iraq’s government and on its streets in the form of militias. Iran has also forged a defense pact with Syria, its main ally in the region. The militant group Hezbollah, which forms one of the Lebanon’s major power centers, was a creation of Iran’s foreign policy in cooperation with Syria. To the east, Iran continues to exert significant political and cultural influence in post-Taliban Afghanistan, particularly in bordering provinces. For these reasons, Iran can be marked as a rising regional force.

Iran’s newfound strength, however, is not unchallenged and therefore may not last. Recent events in the region indicate a concerted effort by the U.S. and Israel, along with the tacit support of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt, to not only contain Iran’s rise, but also to roll it back.

Last summer’s Hezbollah-Israel war was a step in that direction. Although the war began with Hezbollah’s cross-border raid, it gave the Israeli government the green light to destroy Hezbollah; this was one of Prime Minister Olmert’s stated main objectives, and was implicitly endorsed by the Bush Administration. Indeed, the U.S. and Israel were hoping to decimate Hezbollah as part of a wider strategy related to Iran’s nuclear plans. The aim of destroying Hezbollah can be viewed as part of a broader plan to roll back Iran’s influence in Lebanon so as to isolate Iran in regards to its nuclear program.

Israel has now hinted to the Syrian government its willingness to return the Golan Heights, which were captured in 1967, provided that Syria break its pact with Iran and end its support for Hezbollah.

The Syrian government has always viewed Hezbollah as a bargaining chip to use against Israel in its pursuit to regain the Golan Heights. Now, with the emergence of nuclear Iran, Israel may be willing to return the occupied land to Syria in an attempt to weaken its greater enemy, Iran.

The U.S., indicating a change in American policy, encouraged Israel’s offer to Syria:

In the past, Israeli and U.S. officials have said privately that Washington didn't want Israel to talk with Syria, because of its ties to militants in Iraq and its meddling in Lebanon. But Bush is under pressure from allies, lawmakers and advisers who think Washington should improve relations with Syria in an effort to isolate Iran. [AP news]

The Bush Administration’s decision to send more than 20,000 U.S. troops into Baghdad can also be viewed with Iran in mind. The surge has disproportionately targeted the pro-Iran groups in Baghdad, mainly the anti-American cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr, who once declared that he and his al-Mahdi Army would defend Iran in the case of a U.S. attack.

Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia are supporting the Israeli and American agenda for Iran, as they have time and again stated their hostility to a nuclear Iran whose Islamic revolutionary ideology challenges their governments’ legitimacy.

So what does all this mean? Iran spends less than one percent of what America spends on defense, meaning Iran cannot flex its muscle against the American military. Iran’s strength comes from is alliances, influence, and strongholds in the region. Iran’s regional clout is its playing card against any U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. In other words, Iran’s Islamic government is telling the U.S.: “If you strike us, we will wreak havoc on you and your interests in the region.”

Indeed, with less than 600 days left in the Bush presidency, the events of this past year show a growing trend to isolate Iran over its nuclear program. The Israeli aim of destroying Hezbollah in Lebanon in last summer’s 34-day war, Israel’s attempts to isolate Iran by offering to return the Golan Heights in exchange for Syria’s cessation of military ties with Iran, and the surge in American forces in Iraq and their disproportionate targeting of pro-Iran groups, all signify that the U.S. government and Israel are working to roll back Iran’s regional power in time for a showdown over Iran’s nuclear plans. Comments

Pouya Alimagham received his B.A. from the University of California, Berkeley, in Middle Eastern Studies and Political Science. He is currently pursuing an M.A. at Harvard University in Middle Eastern Studies. He is a blogger at ipouya.blogspot.com.