Kerry’s Iran
A Kerry presidency may be better for Iran
October 7, 2004
iranian.com
I see too many Iranian Republicans these days. Ed Gillespie may
want to consider relocating his headquarters to Los Angeles, known
in the Iranian community as Tehran-geles, where in every Kebob
house wealthy Iranian expatriates can make a meaty donation to
the cause of liberation of Iran by George W. Bush.
That’s right. Iranians are not voting for Bush because
they love his tax cuts. Most of my fellow countrymen try their
best to evade any taxes, always stretching the legal boundaries
and creating fascinating new loopholes --ones that even George
Bush in his most generous moment did not dream of. These masters
of tax evasion have always felt entitled to a hefty cut long before
the W tax code was operational.
And, what about the economy stupid? Iranians who are in the real
estate business have seen a great economy these past four years.
The shop owners saw little change in their economy. In general,
many skillfully navigate the system and make a profit even in the
worst economic times. Do they care about the massive increase in
the deficit? Are they heartbroken over the deep cuts in the “safety
net?” You must be kidding.
 They don’t care much about Iraq either. They are convinced
the US is after Iraq’s oil. They may be the only Republican
constituency that hates the US domination only slightly less than
they hate Arabs. In their view, Iraq in American hands is a good
thing. In fact many would insist: Don’t bring the troops
home! The job is not finished.
Here is why they really want to vote Bush next November.
According to the Neo-con fixed Iranian, Bush will fight the mullahs,
but Kerry is getting money from the Islamic Republic lobby. This
is at the heart of the pro-Bush Iranian-Republican vote.
Now, let
me say that Kerry’s financial support by the Islamic Republic
lobby is no fantasy. I am not about to name anyone. Let me just
say that former President Rafsanjani’s money did make it
to Kerry’s hands, and you don’t have to trust any right
wing pro-Bush propagandist to believe that. I just told you so
and I have never voted for a Republican in my life.
Let it also be clear that a Bush invasion of Iran in the aftermath
of Iraq fiasco is not likely. Even the Islamic regime in Tehran
knows that. It is hard to imagine that Bush’s tough talk
about regime change would translate to anything substantial.
But let me suggest that a Kerry presidency, to the dismay of
the majority of my fellow Iranians, may be better for Iran. That
is, a future democratic Iran, if that is what they are seeking.
And why do I have such claim in the face of Bush’s intent
to play hard ball with the mullahs when Kerry has already announced
plans for future cooperation with them? It’s simple! We must
stop dreaming of an Iranian democracy without Iranian democrats.
If Iranians want a democratic transformation,
they must mobilize all of their resources to demolish once and
for all the Islamic state.
Ever since President Bush placed Iran
on the axis of evil and the talk of “regime change” was
introduced to the Washington circles, the Iranian people have switched
into the anticipatory mode. Such “wait and pray” policy
will not bring about a democratic transformation of Iran. The masses
that stay home and wait for Bush or any other foreign power to
liberate them are doomed to fail in achieving democracy.
The effect
of American invasion of Iraq on the Iranian intellectuals has
been equally devastating. They have suddenly rediscovered
their strong anti-imperialist impulses. The virulent anti-American
sentiment
that had been dormant for more than a decade, despite being
unpopular with the masses, now finds an excuse for expression.
Like the
masses, many of the Iranian intellectuals convinced themselves
that George
is coming to town. Anticipating a US military invasion, they
have cautioned against confronting the Islamic regime for the
fear of
becoming a tool of US foreign policy.
But what if Kerry wins?
It is true that Kerry will likely follow the advice of the big
Z, Carter’s former National Security
adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, and normalize the relations
with Iran.
Now,
that is no easy task given the paranoid nature of the Islamic Republic
elites and the unruly shadow government that rules the
country. But if the Z alternative is successful, Kerry will smash
hopes of all those who are waiting in their basements for the smart
bombs to wipe out the mullahs. Kerry’s Iran, will be at peace
with US, will call off his dogs of war in Iraq, and begin negotiating
their nuclear arsenal.
For all this, Iran will be rewarded in cash,
nuclear energy, investments, contracts and lifting of a useless
economic sanction. What Iran does to their youth, dissidents, women
and minorities will be Iran’s internal problem. Certainly
a regime change will no longer be the objective of the US foreign
policy. Echoing the words of Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi,
the Iranian regime's grand bargain with Kerry could be summarized
in one sentence: “leave us alone”.
The Islamic Republic of Iran will look very stable after such
new and exciting love affair. But even “An island of stability” in
the words of President Carter, or an “anchor of stability”,
as Mr Kharazi, recently called it in his interview with Charlie
Rose, will have to deal with the demands of Iranian people.
Under
a Kerry presidency Iranians will once again face a dictatorship
that enjoys support of Europe and US alike. A dictatorship that
can only be changed by the Iranians who are determined to bring
about democracy and rule of law. The recent history of Iran suggests
that in that faithful historical moment, the islands and anchors
of stability could rapidly vaporize into smokes.
That will be the moment of awakening for my country. In that
moment, we have come full circle. Iranians can feel hostile toward
US once again. Mr. Brzezinski can try hopelessly to preserve
the regime once more as he did in 1979. But he will not be any
more
successful than he was in 1979.
 If all this indeed happen, it may also be another
one of those remarkable ironies of history. A conspiratorial eye
would conclude
that Iranian revolutions happen with Mr. Brzezinski at the helm.
The man knows how to trigger a revolution against his allies.
Author
Ramin Ahmadi, MD, MPH, is associate clinical professor
of medicine at the Yale School of Medicine, the program director
for
internal
medicine residency at Griffin Hospital and the founder of Griffin
Center for Health and Human Rights.
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